New York City FC vs Los Angeles FC Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis

Archived Result — stats and prediction shown as they stood before kickoff
Citi Field
Sun 18 Oct 2026 · 00:30 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
2.72
Draw
3.55
Away Win
2.56
Match Report
Full Time
1 – 1
Match Events ?
New York City FC
Los Angeles FC
Hannes Wolf 🟨
28'
Aiden O'Neill 🟨
44'
45+1'
⚽ Leo Walta
Agustin Ojeda 🟨
54'
Andrés Perea (Nicolás Fernández Mercau) ⚽
59'
Match Statistics ?
66%
Ball Possession
34%
13
Total Shots
9
3
Shots on Goal
3
10
Corner Kicks
4
18
Fouls
8
3
Yellow Cards
0
0
Red Cards
0
1
Offsides
3
2
Goalkeeper Saves
2
Starting Lineups
New York City FC (4-2-3-1)
M. Freese
T. Gray
Thiago Martins
J. Sands
K. O'Toole
A. O'Neill
A. Perea
A. Ojeda
N. Fernández Mercau
H. Wolf
Luighi Hanri
Los Angeles FC (4-2-3-1)
H. Lloris
R. Hollingshead
A. Long
N. Tafari
Y. Cheberko
M. Delgado
Igor Jesus
L. Walta
Son Heung-Min
J. Shaffelburg
D. Bouanga
Player Ratings ?
New York City FC
N. Fernández MercauM7.7
A. PereaM7.6
T. GrayD7.3
Los Angeles FC
L. WaltaM7.7
Igor JesusM7.2
N. TafariD6.8
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. New York City FC edge defence, Los Angeles FC edge recent form, attack and head-to-head, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Los Angeles FC stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Los Angeles FC stronger
HomeAway
Defence
New York City FC slightly stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Los Angeles FC slightly stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Los Angeles FC have drawn three of their last five away fixtures but also suffered two defeats there, while New York City FC are winless at home in their last five outings with just two draws to show for it. New York City FC have found the net in three of their last five matches at home but have only managed a single clean sheet during that same span. Five players are unavailable for New York City FC, whereas Los Angeles FC face three absences ahead of the MLS fixture. Los Angeles FC rate stronger on form and attack, with a slight advantage in head-to-head, while New York City FC hold a slight advantage in defence. Los Angeles FC won the most recent meeting 1-0 on 2 March 2025, having won 1 of the last 4 encounters to New York City FC's 1, with 2 ending level; the fixture has averaged 3.0 goals per meeting. Over the 6-day comparison window, New York City FC's implied win probability has risen by 1.2 percentage points, while Los Angeles FC's implied win probability has fallen by 2.0 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
4
Los Angeles FC unbeaten run
2
New York City FC points from last 5 matches
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Market View
?
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Notable shift away from Los Angeles FC
Los Angeles FC's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Los Angeles FC win as less likely than it did 6 days ago.
Movement strength: Notable
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
New York City FC win
Latest market chance 35.3%
Slight shortening
Market chance increased
34.1% → 35.3%
+1.2 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 27.1%
Slight shortening
Market chance increased
26.3% → 27.1%
+0.8 pts
Los Angeles FC win
Latest market chance 37.6%
Notable drift
Market chance decreased
39.6% → 37.6%
−2.0 pts
Movement over time
Change vs first comparable snapshot
6 snapshots
+2+10−1Oct 12Oct 13Oct 14Oct 16Oct 17
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
New York City FC
Draw
Los Angeles FC
5 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 6 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
New York City FC
Los Angeles FC
Season Profile
This season
20th
League Position
12th
29
Games Played
30
1.14
Points/Game
1.50
1.45
Goals/Game
1.57
1.38
Conceded/Game
1.07
11.9
Shots/Game
15.0
4.7
Shots on Target
4.9
Home vs Away Context
New York City FC at home (17 matches) vs Los Angeles FC away (17 matches)
1.24
Points/Game
0.94
1.76
Goals/Game
1.18
1.41
Conceded/Game
1.29
29%
Win Rate
18%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
New York City FC
Home form
D
L
D
L
L
Winless in last 5 at home
0.8
Goals scored
per match
1.4
Goals conceded
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
VS
Los Angeles FC
Away form
D
D
L
D
L
Winless in last 5 away
1.0
Goals scored
per match
1.6
Goals conceded
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
New York City FC Wins
1
Draws
2
Los Angeles FC Wins
1
Avg Goals
3.0
2025-03-022025
Los Angeles FC1 – 0New York City FC
2021-05-292021
Los Angeles FC1 – 2New York City FC
2019-03-172019
New York City FC2 – 2Los Angeles FC
2018-05-142018
Los Angeles FC2 – 2New York City FC
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
New York City FC
vs
Los Angeles FC
Recent Scoring Profile
0.90
Goals scored / game
1.20
1.30
Goals conceded / game
1.20
4/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
4/10
6/10
Both Teams Scored
6/10
3/10
Failed to Score
3/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
77.6%
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
54.7%
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
33.8%
BTTSBoth teams score
58.9%
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 4 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 55.3%→Latest 54.6%−0.7 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
3 common bookmakers · first comparable 6 days before kickoff
The market is pricing a higher chance of 3+ goals than either team's recent rate.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 58.9%→Latest 58.9%±0.0 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
4 common bookmakers · first comparable 6 days before kickoff
Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.
2 of New York City FC's 10 matches and 2 of Los Angeles FC's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?
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