New York City FC vs Atlanta United FC Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis

Archived Result — stats and prediction shown as they stood before kickoff
Citi Field
Wed 28 Oct 2026 · 23:30 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
1.73
Draw
4.09
Away Win
4.32
Match Report
Full Time
2 – 1
Match Events ?
New York City FC
Atlanta United FC
Tayvon Gray 🟨
7'
11'
🟨 Mauricio Amaro
34'
🟨 Paulo Díaz
Talles Magno 🟨
43'
68'
🟨 Tristan Muyumba
Nicolás Fernández Mercau ⚽
70'
81'
🟨 Matthew Edwards
88'
⚽ Breel Embolo
Bénie Adama Traoré (Kevin O'Toole) ⚽
90+5'
Match Statistics ?
46%
Ball Possession
54%
11
Total Shots
19
6
Shots on Goal
6
3
Corner Kicks
3
13
Fouls
14
2
Yellow Cards
4
0
Red Cards
0
1
Offsides
4
5
Goalkeeper Saves
4
Starting Lineups
New York City FC (4-2-3-1)
M. Freese
T. Gray
Thiago Martins
J. Sands
K. O'Toole
A. O'Neill
A. Perea
A. Ojeda
N. Fernández Mercau
H. Wolf
A. Martínez
Atlanta United FC (4-1-4-1)
L. Hoyos
T. Jacob
P. Díaz
J. Alonso
Matthew Edwards
M. Amaro
A. Miranchuk
G. Galoppo
T. Muyumba
M. Almirón
B. Embolo
Player Ratings ?
New York City FC
N. Fernández MercauM8.2
B. TraoréF7.7
K. O'TooleD7.1
Atlanta United FC
B. EmboloF8.1
A. MiranchukM7.0
J. AlonsoD7.0
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. New York City FC edge head-to-head, Atlanta United FC edge recent form and attack, defence is closely matched, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Atlanta United FC slightly stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Atlanta United FC stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Closely matched
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
New York City FC slightly stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Atlanta United FC have shown resilience on the road with three wins and two draws from their last five away matches, while New York City FC struggle at home having recorded only two draws and three losses in their recent outings. New York City FC have found the net in three of their last five home games but have managed just one clean sheet during that same period. Concerns remain for both sides ahead of kickoff, as New York City FC face three confirmed absences alongside three doubtful players, while Atlanta United FC must manage with one player out and another in doubt. Atlanta United FC rate stronger on attack, with a slight advantage in form, while New York City FC hold a slight advantage in head-to-head, while defence is closely matched. The most recent meeting, on 27 September 2026, ended level, with 3 of the last 5 encounters drawn overall; the fixture has averaged 4.2 goals per meeting. Over the 2-day comparison window, New York City FC's implied win probability has risen by 4.2 percentage points, while Atlanta United FC's implied win probability has fallen by 3.1 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
4
Atlanta United FC losing run
2
New York City FC points from last 5 matches
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Market View
?
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Strong shift towards New York City FC
New York City FC's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a New York City FC win as more likely than it did 2 days ago.
Movement strength: Strong
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
New York City FC win
Latest market chance 54.1%
Strong shortening
Market chance increased
49.9% → 54.1%
+4.2 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 23.6%
Slight drift
Market chance decreased
24.6% → 23.6%
−1.0 pts
Atlanta United FC win
Latest market chance 22.4%
Strong drift
Market chance decreased
25.5% → 22.4%
−3.1 pts
Movement over time
Change vs first comparable snapshot
3 snapshots
+4.5+2.250−2.25Oct 26Oct 27Oct 28
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
New York City FC
Draw
Atlanta United FC
8 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 2 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
New York City FC
Atlanta United FC
Season Profile
This season
23rd
League Position
28th
31
Games Played
31
1.13
Points/Game
0.97
1.45
Goals/Game
1.26
1.39
Conceded/Game
1.74
11.9
Shots/Game
13.2
4.7
Shots on Target
4.1
Home vs Away Context
New York City FC at home (17 matches) vs Atlanta United FC away (17 matches)
1.24
Points/Game
0.94
1.76
Goals/Game
1.00
1.41
Conceded/Game
1.59
29%
Win Rate
24%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
New York City FC
Home form
L
D
L
L
D
Winless in last 5 at home
0.8
Goals scored
per match
1.4
Goals conceded
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
VS
Atlanta United FC
Away form
W
D
D
W
W
Unbeaten in last 5 away
1.6
Goals scored
per match
0.6
Goals conceded
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
3/5
Clean
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
New York City FC Wins
1
Draws
3
Atlanta United FC Wins
1
Avg Goals
4.2
2026-09-272026
Atlanta United FC2 – 2New York City FC
2025-06-132025
New York City FC4 – 0Atlanta United FC
2025-03-292025
Atlanta United FC4 – 3New York City FC
2024-07-182024
Atlanta United FC2 – 2New York City FC
2024-04-072024
New York City FC1 – 1Atlanta United FC
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
New York City FC
vs
Atlanta United FC
Recent Scoring Profile
1.00
Goals scored / game
1.40
1.30
Goals conceded / game
1.80
4/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
7/10
6/10
Both Teams Scored
6/10
3/10
Failed to Score
2/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
80.7%
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
59.7%
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
39.0%
BTTSBoth teams score
59.7%
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 6 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 58.8%→Latest 59.7%+0.9 pts
Slight move towards 3+ goals
Oct 26Oct 27Oct 28
6 common bookmakers · first comparable 2 days before kickoff
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 60.3%→Latest 59.7%−0.6 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
6 common bookmakers · first comparable 2 days before kickoff
Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.
4 of New York City FC's 10 matches and 4 of Atlanta United FC's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
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