New England Revolution vs Chicago Fire Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Boston Stadium
Sun 18 Oct 2026 · 00:30 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
2.38
Draw
3.86
Away Win
2.78
Match Report
Full Time
1 – 0
Match Events ?
New England Revolution
Chicago Fire
Matt Polster (Carles Gil) ⚽
26'
58'
🟨 Andrew Gutman
Ethan Kohler 🟨
79'
Match Statistics ?
39%
Ball Possession
61%
5
Total Shots
19
4
Shots on Goal
6
0
Corner Kicks
10
9
Fouls
17
1
Yellow Cards
1
0
Red Cards
0
1
Offsides
1
6
Goalkeeper Saves
3
Starting Lineups
New England Revolution (4-3-3)
M. Turner
I. Feingold
E. Kohler
J. Wynder
W. Sands
Carles Gil
B. Raines
M. Polster
P. Miller
D. Turgeman
L. Langoni
Chicago Fire (4-3-3)
C. Brady
Leonardo Barroso
A. Hanche-Olsen
M. Mbokazi
A. Gutman
A. Salétros
T. D'Avilla
M. Haile-Selassie
P. Zinckernagel
R. Lewandowski
J. Bamba
Player Ratings ?
New England Revolution
M. TurnerG8.7
M. PolsterM8.2
J. WynderD7.8
Chicago Fire
M. MbokaziD7.0
A. MekvabishviliM7.0
A. SalétrosM6.9
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. New England Revolution edge recent form, attack and head-to-head, defence is closely matched, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
New England Revolution stronger
HomeAway
Attack
New England Revolution slightly stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Closely matched
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
New England Revolution stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Chicago Fire have secured just one victory from their last five away outings, while New England Revolution sit on two wins in their corresponding home sample. The host side have found the net in three of their last five matches at this venue but have failed to keep a clean sheet during that same period. Both squads face selection headaches, with four players unavailable for each side ahead of kickoff. New England Revolution rate stronger on form and head-to-head, with a slight advantage in attack, while defence is closely matched. New England Revolution won the most recent meeting 2-1 on 13 September 2026, having won 2 of the last 5 encounters to Chicago Fire's 1, with 2 ending level; the fixture has averaged 3.0 goals per meeting. Over the 6-day comparison window, New England Revolution's implied win probability has risen by 0.7 percentage points, while Chicago Fire's implied win probability has fallen by 1.3 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
4
New England Revolution unbeaten run
3/5
One-goal H2H results
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Slight shift away from Chicago Fire
Chicago Fire's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Chicago Fire win as less likely than it did 6 days ago. This is a modest move, not a major change in market opinion. New England Revolution remain the clear market favourite.
Movement strength: Slight
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
New England Revolution win
Latest market chance 39.9%
Steady
Market view unchanged
39.2% → 39.9%
+0.7 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 25.0%
Steady
Market view unchanged
24.4% → 25.0%
+0.6 pts
Chicago Fire win
Latest market chance 35.1%
Slight drift
Market chance decreased
36.4% → 35.1%
−1.3 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
New England Revolution
Draw
Chicago Fire
4 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 6 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
New England RevolutionChicago Fire
Season Profile
This season
6th
League Position
7th
29
Games Played
29
1.69
Points/Game
1.66
1.66
Goals/Game
1.79
1.41
Conceded/Game
1.48
12.0
Shots/Game
14.5
4.8
Shots on Target
5.2
Home vs Away Context
New England Revolution at home (17 matches) vs Chicago Fire away (17 matches)
2.06
Points/Game
1.53
1.82
Goals/Game
1.82
1.18
Conceded/Game
1.71
65%
Win Rate
41%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
New England Revolution
Home form
W
L
D
W
L
2W 1D 2L in last 5 at home
1.8
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.8
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Chicago Fire
Away form
D
D
D
L
W
1W 3D 1L in last 5 away
1.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
New England Revolution Wins
2
Draws
2
Chicago Fire Wins
1
Avg Goals
3.0
Chicago Fire1 – 2New England Revolution
New England Revolution2 – 2Chicago Fire
Chicago Fire3 – 2New England Revolution
Chicago Fire0 – 1New England Revolution
New England Revolution1 – 1Chicago Fire
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
New England Revolutionvs
Chicago Fire
Recent Scoring Profile
1.90
Goals scored / game
1.60
1.60
Goals conceded / game
1.80
9/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
7/10
7/10
Both Teams Scored
8/10
2/10
Failed to Score
1/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 4 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 66.4%→Latest 65.2%−1.2 pts
Slight move away from 3+ goals
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 67.1%→Latest 66.7%−0.4 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.
2 of New England Revolution's 10 matches and 3 of Chicago Fire's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?