Nashville SC vs Sporting Kansas City Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Geodis Park
Thu 15 Oct 2026 · 01:30 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
1.22
Draw
7.18
Away Win
10.29
Match Report
Full Time
4 – 0
Match Events ?
Nashville SC
Sporting Kansas City
Hany Mukhtar (Andy Najar) ⚽
10'
Sam Surridge (Hany Mukhtar) ⚽
17'
Andy Najar (Cristian Espinoza) ⚽
29'
Warren Madrigal ⚽ (P)
90+5'
Match Statistics ?
49%
Ball Possession
51%
18
Total Shots
9
11
Shots on Goal
1
7
Corner Kicks
4
14
Fouls
10
0
Yellow Cards
0
0
Red Cards
0
1
Offsides
2
1
Goalkeeper Saves
6
Starting Lineups
Nashville SC (4-2-3-1)
B. Schwake
A. Najar
J. Palacios
M. Woledzi
R. Baker-Whiting
E. Tagseth
M. Corcoran
C. Espinoza
H. Mukhtar
E. Saad
S. Surridge
Sporting Kansas City (4-4-2)
S. Cleveland
I. James
Jansen Miller
Wyatt Meyer
J. Reid
André Luiz
Z. Bassong
K. Agyabeng
M. Suleymanov
R. Ramos
S. Reid
Player Ratings ?
Nashville SC
H. MukhtarM9.0
A. NajarD8.2
S. SurridgeF8.0
Sporting Kansas City
S. ClevelandG6.7
S. ReidF6.6
K. AgyabengM6.5
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
Data favours
Nashville SC
Nashville SC rate stronger across every major category. They lead recent form, attack, defence and head-to-head, giving Nashville SC an edge.
Leads 4 of 4 major categories
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Nashville SC stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Nashville SC stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Nashville SC stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Nashville SC stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Sporting Kansas City have struggled on the road with just a solitary victory in their last five away outings, whereas Nashville SC are flying at home having secured all five of their recent matches at this venue. The hosts have found the net in each of their last five home games while keeping three clean sheets during that same period. Sporting Kansas City face significant availability concerns with six players unavailable and one listed as doubtful for the fixture. Nashville SC rate stronger on form, attack, defence and head-to-head. Nashville SC won the most recent meeting 3-0 on 21 September 2023, having won 2 of the last 4 encounters to Sporting Kansas City's 2, with 0 ending level; the fixture has averaged 3.0 goals per meeting. Over the 6-day comparison window, Nashville SC's implied win probability has risen by 2.9 percentage points, while Sporting Kansas City's implied win probability has fallen by 0.6 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison favours Nashville SC.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
5
Nashville SC unbeaten run
3/4
One-goal H2H results
46%
Nashville SC yellow cards after 75'
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Notable shift towards Nashville SC
Nashville SC's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Nashville SC win as more likely than it did 6 days ago.
Movement strength: Notable
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Nashville SC win
Latest market chance 76.6%
Notable shortening
Market chance increased
73.7% → 76.6%
+2.9 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 13.8%
Notable drift
Market chance decreased
16.0% → 13.8%
−2.2 pts
Sporting Kansas City win
Latest market chance 9.6%
Steady
Market view unchanged
10.2% → 9.6%
−0.6 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Nashville SC
Draw
Sporting Kansas City
7 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 6 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
Nashville SCSporting Kansas City
Season Profile
This season
1st
League Position
30th
28
Games Played
28
2.25
Points/Game
0.79
2.11
Goals/Game
1.25
0.79
Conceded/Game
2.43
12.9
Shots/Game
11.1
5.1
Shots on Target
4.2
Home vs Away Context
Nashville SC at home (17 matches) vs Sporting Kansas City away (17 matches)
2.76
Points/Game
0.71
2.82
Goals/Game
0.94
0.82
Conceded/Game
2.71
88%
Win Rate
24%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Nashville SC
Home form
W
W
W
W
W
Won 5 straight at home
3.2
Goals scored
per match
per match
0.6
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
3/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Sporting Kansas City
Away form
L
L
L
W
L
Lost 4 of last 5 away
1.4
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Nashville SC Wins
2
Draws
0
Sporting Kansas City Wins
2
Avg Goals
3.0
Sporting Kansas City0 – 3Nashville SC
Nashville SC1 – 2Sporting Kansas City
Sporting Kansas City1 – 2Nashville SC
Sporting Kansas City2 – 1Nashville SC
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Nashville SCvs
Sporting Kansas City
Recent Scoring Profile
2.40
Goals scored / game
1.70
0.80
Goals conceded / game
2.20
7/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
7/10
5/10
Both Teams Scored
7/10
1/10
Failed to Score
2/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 7 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 69.4%→Latest 72.3%+2.9 pts
Notable move towards 3+ goals
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 56.7%→Latest 57.4%+0.7 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
1 of Nashville SC's 10 matches and 2 of Sporting Kansas City's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?