Minnesota United FC vs St. Louis City Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Allianz Field
Sat 17 Oct 2026 · 21:30 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
2.50
Draw
3.98
Away Win
2.57
Match Report
Full Time
3 – 2
Match Events ?
Minnesota United FC
St. Louis City
4'
⚽ Rafael Navarro Leal
10'
⚽ Sang-bin Jung (Rafael Navarro Leal)
Aziel Jackson 🟨
24'
26'
🟨 Miguel Perez
Aziel Jackson (Kelvin Yeboah) ⚽
49'
51'
🟨 Sang-bin Jung
Kelvin Yeboah (Mauricio González Carabalí) ⚽
68'
Marcus Caldeira (Joaquín Pereyra) ⚽
86'
Jefferson Abel Díaz Beleño 🟨
90'
Match Statistics ?
45%
Ball Possession
55%
27
Total Shots
15
11
Shots on Goal
6
6
Corner Kicks
7
14
Fouls
15
2
Yellow Cards
2
0
Red Cards
0
0
Offsides
2
4
Goalkeeper Saves
7
Starting Lineups
Minnesota United FC (3-4-1-2)
D. Callender
Cherrion Valerius
J. Díaz
M. Duggan
B. Hlongwane
N. Triantis
W. Trapp
A. Markanich
M. Gonzalez
A. Jackson
K. Yeboah
St. Louis City (3-4-1-2)
R. Bürki
J. Orozco
T. Baumgartl
F. Fall
M. Joyner
D. Polvara
M. Perez
T. Totland
Jeong Sang-Bin
S. Becher
Rafael Navarro
Player Ratings ?
Minnesota United FC
K. YeboahF8.8
A. JacksonF8.2
Marcus CaldeiraF8.0
St. Louis City
Rafael NavarroF8.7
Jeong Sang-BinM7.1
R. BürkiG6.8
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
Data favours
St. Louis City
St. Louis City rate stronger in recent form, attack and defence; Minnesota United FC edge head-to-head, giving St. Louis City a slight edge.
Leads 3 of 4 major categories
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
St. Louis City stronger
HomeAway
Attack
St. Louis City slightly stronger
HomeAway
Defence
St. Louis City stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Minnesota United FC stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
St. Louis City arrive with an encouraging away record of three wins and two draws from their last five outings, while Minnesota United FC have struggled at home with no victories in that same span. The hosts have found the net in all five of their recent home matches but have yet to keep a clean sheet during this period. Three players are unavailable for Minnesota United FC, whereas St. Louis City face one confirmed absence alongside one doubtful selection. St. Louis City rate stronger on form and defence, with a slight advantage in attack, while Minnesota United FC rate stronger on head-to-head. St. Louis City won the most recent meeting 4-2 on 13 September 2026, having won 1 of the last 5 encounters to Minnesota United FC's 4, with 0 ending level; the fixture has averaged 4.2 goals per meeting. Over the 5-day comparison window, Minnesota United FC's implied win probability has fallen by 0.6 percentage points, while St. Louis City's implied win probability has risen by 0.8 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison gives St. Louis City a slight edge.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
5
Minnesota United FC losing run
2
Minnesota United FC points from last 5 matches
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Slight shift towards St. Louis City
St. Louis City's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a St. Louis City win as more likely than it did 5 days ago. This is a modest move, not a major change in market opinion. Minnesota United FC remain the clear market favourite.
Movement strength: Slight
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Minnesota United FC win
Latest market chance 38.5%
Steady
Market view unchanged
39.1% → 38.5%
−0.6 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 24.9%
Steady
Market view unchanged
25.1% → 24.9%
−0.2 pts
St. Louis City win
Latest market chance 36.6%
Slight shortening
Market chance increased
35.8% → 36.6%
+0.8 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Minnesota United FC
Draw
St. Louis City
5 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 5 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
Minnesota United FCSt. Louis City
Season Profile
This season
26th
League Position
4th
29
Games Played
29
1.07
Points/Game
1.76
1.52
Goals/Game
1.86
1.83
Conceded/Game
1.31
13.9
Shots/Game
13.3
5.0
Shots on Target
4.9
Home vs Away Context
Minnesota United FC at home (17 matches) vs St. Louis City away (17 matches)
1.29
Points/Game
1.35
1.47
Goals/Game
1.35
1.29
Conceded/Game
1.47
29%
Win Rate
35%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Minnesota United FC
Home form
L
D
L
L
D
Winless in last 5 at home
1.8
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
St. Louis City
Away form
W
D
W
D
W
Unbeaten in last 5 away
2.4
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Minnesota United FC Wins
4
Draws
0
St. Louis City Wins
1
Avg Goals
4.2
St. Louis City4 – 2Minnesota United FC
St. Louis City1 – 2Minnesota United FC
Minnesota United FC3 – 0St. Louis City
Minnesota United FC4 – 1St. Louis City
St. Louis City1 – 3Minnesota United FC
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Minnesota United FCvs
St. Louis City
Recent Scoring Profile
2.30
Goals scored / game
2.70
2.70
Goals conceded / game
1.30
10/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
8/10
10/10
Both Teams Scored
8/10
0/10
Failed to Score
1/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 4 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 62.0%→Latest 63.7%+1.7 pts
Notable move towards 3+ goals
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
The market is more cautious on 3+ goals than both teams' recent records.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 64.5%→Latest 65.1%+0.6 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
The market is more cautious on both teams scoring than both teams' recent records.
2 of Minnesota United FC's 10 matches and 2 of St. Louis City's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?