Minnesota United FC vs San Jose Earthquakes Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Allianz Field
Sun 08 Nov 2026 · 00:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
1.73
Draw
4.39
Away Win
4.19
Match Report
Full Time
3 – 1
Match Events ?
Minnesota United FC
San Jose Earthquakes
45'
⚽ Preston Judd (N.Tsakiris)
46'
🟨 Ronaldo Vieira
Owen Gene 🟨
53'
Tomás Chancalay (Joaquín Pereyra) ⚽
57'
Morris Duggan 🟨
59'
67'
🟨 Jamar Ricketts
69'
🟨 Preston Judd
Angus Gunn ⚽ (OG)
82'
Tomás Chancalay 🟨
86'
Nectarios Triantis (Morris Duggan) ⚽
90+4'
Match Statistics ?
51%
Ball Possession
49%
14
Total Shots
8
6
Shots on Goal
3
8
Corner Kicks
2
16
Fouls
14
3
Yellow Cards
3
0
Red Cards
0
2
Offsides
0
2
Goalkeeper Saves
4
Starting Lineups
Minnesota United FC (4-4-2)
D. Callender
Cherrion Valerius
J. Díaz
M. Duggan
A. Markanich
T. Chancalay
N. Triantis
O. Gene
M. Gonzalez
J. Pereyra
K. Yeboah
San Jose Earthquakes (4-2-3-1)
A. Gunn
B. Kikanovic
D. Munie
R. Roberts
J. Ricketts
R. Vieira
E. Löwen
O. Bouda
N. Tsakiris
T. Werner
P. Judd
Player Ratings ?
Minnesota United FC
N. TriantisM7.9
J. PereyraF7.7
T. ChancalayM7.5
San Jose Earthquakes
P. JuddF7.3
N. TsakirisM6.7
A. GunnG6.6
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Minnesota United FC edge attack and head-to-head, San Jose Earthquakes edge recent form, defence is closely matched, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
San Jose Earthquakes slightly stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Minnesota United FC stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Closely matched
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Minnesota United FC stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
San Jose Earthquakes have recorded one win and three draws from their last five away outings, whereas Minnesota United FC have secured two victories alongside a solitary draw in their last five home matches. Minnesota United FC have found the net in all of their last five home fixtures but have failed to keep a clean sheet during that same run. San Jose Earthquakes hold a slight advantage in form, while Minnesota United FC rate stronger on attack and head-to-head, while defence is closely matched. Minnesota United FC won the most recent meeting 5-1 on 23 August 2026, having won 5 of the last 5 encounters to San Jose Earthquakes's 0, with 0 ending level; the fixture has averaged 3.4 goals per meeting. Over the 4-day comparison window, Minnesota United FC's implied win probability has risen by 1.1 percentage points, while San Jose Earthquakes's implied win probability has fallen by 0.5 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Slight shift towards Minnesota United FC
Minnesota United FC's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Minnesota United FC win as more likely than it did 4 days ago. This is a modest move, not a major change in market opinion.
Movement strength: Slight
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Minnesota United FC win
Latest market chance 54.7%
Slight shortening
Market chance increased
53.6% → 54.7%
+1.1 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 22.3%
Steady
Market view unchanged
22.9% → 22.3%
−0.6 pts
San Jose Earthquakes win
Latest market chance 23.0%
Steady
Market view unchanged
23.5% → 23.0%
−0.5 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Minnesota United FC
Draw
San Jose Earthquakes
9 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 4 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
Minnesota United FCSan Jose Earthquakes
Season Profile
This season
23rd
League Position
8th
33
Games Played
33
1.24
Points/Game
1.58
1.61
Goals/Game
1.70
1.73
Conceded/Game
1.45
13.9
Shots/Game
13.3
5.0
Shots on Target
4.9
Home vs Away Context
Minnesota United FC at home (17 matches) vs San Jose Earthquakes away (17 matches)
1.29
Points/Game
1.53
1.47
Goals/Game
1.59
1.29
Conceded/Game
1.47
29%
Win Rate
41%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Minnesota United FC
Home form
L
L
D
W
W
2W 1D 2L in last 5 at home
2.2
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
San Jose Earthquakes
Away form
D
W
D
D
L
1W 3D 1L in last 5 away
1.2
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.6
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Minnesota United FC Wins
5
Draws
0
San Jose Earthquakes Wins
0
Avg Goals
3.4
San Jose Earthquakes1 – 5Minnesota United FC
Minnesota United FC4 – 1San Jose Earthquakes
San Jose Earthquakes0 – 1Minnesota United FC
San Jose Earthquakes1 – 2Minnesota United FC
Minnesota United FC2 – 0San Jose Earthquakes
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Minnesota United FCvs
San Jose Earthquakes
Recent Scoring Profile
1.90
Goals scored / game
1.60
2.00
Goals conceded / game
1.40
9/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
6/10
9/10
Both Teams Scored
8/10
1/10
Failed to Score
1/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 7 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 65.3%→Latest 67.3%+2.0 pts
Notable move towards 3+ goals
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 64.5%→Latest 64.6%+0.1 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
The market is more cautious on both teams scoring than both teams' recent records.
6 of Minnesota United FC's 10 matches and 6 of San Jose Earthquakes's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?