Minnesota United FC vs Houston Dynamo Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis

Archived Result — stats and prediction shown as they stood before kickoff
Allianz Field
Sun 11 Oct 2026 · 01:30 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
2.07
Draw
3.60
Away Win
3.46
Match Report
Full Time
2 – 2
Match Events ?
Minnesota United FC
Houston Dynamo
18'
⚽ Lyle Foster
Kelvin Yeboah (Morris Duggan) ⚽
48'
Mauricio González Carabalí 🟨
66'
Marcus Caldeira (Cherrion Valerius) ⚽
78'
Wil Trapp 🟨
82'
90+2'
⚽ Duncan McGuire (Nick Markanich)
Match Statistics ?
46%
Ball Possession
54%
15
Total Shots
15
6
Shots on Goal
6
2
Corner Kicks
5
16
Fouls
4
2
Yellow Cards
0
0
Red Cards
0
0
Offsides
1
4
Goalkeeper Saves
4
Starting Lineups
Minnesota United FC (3-4-3)
D. Callender
Cherrion Valerius
M. Boxall
M. Duggan
B. Hlongwane
O. Gene
W. Trapp
A. Markanich
A. Jackson
K. Yeboah
T. Chancalay
Houston Dynamo (4-3-3)
J. Bond
Felipe Andrade
Antônio Carlos
Lucas Halter
L. Ennali
D. Samassékou
Artur
A. Bouzat
M. Bogusz
L. Foster
Guilherme
Player Ratings ?
Minnesota United FC
Marcus CaldeiraF8.2
K. YeboahF8.1
M. DugganD7.1
Houston Dynamo
D. McGuireF8.1
L. FosterF7.9
N. MarkanichF7.0
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
Data favours
Houston Dynamo
Houston Dynamo rate stronger in recent form and defence; Minnesota United FC edge attack; head-to-head is closely matched, giving Houston Dynamo a slight edge.
Leads 2 of 4 major categories
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Houston Dynamo stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Minnesota United FC stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Houston Dynamo stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Closely matched
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Houston Dynamo have recorded two wins and a draw from their last five away outings, whereas Minnesota United FC remain winless at home with just two draws in that same span. Minnesota United FC have scored in all five of their recent home matches but have failed to keep a clean sheet during that period. The hosts face some squad concerns with one player ruled out and two others doubtful, while Houston Dynamo have no confirmed absences though they also carry two doubts. Houston Dynamo rate stronger on form and defence, while Minnesota United FC rate stronger on attack, while head-to-head is closely matched. Minnesota United FC won the most recent meeting 3-1 on 26 June 2025, having won 2 of the last 5 encounters to Houston Dynamo's 2, with 1 ending level; the fixture has averaged 2.8 goals per meeting. The market has remained broadly steady over the 2-day comparison window, with little change in either side's implied win probability. The overall statistical comparison gives Houston Dynamo a slight edge.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
5
Houston Dynamo unbeaten run
2
Minnesota United FC points from last 5 matches
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Market View
?
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Little change in the market
The betting market's view of this match has barely moved since the earliest comparable snapshot, 2 days before kickoff.
Movement strength: Steady
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Minnesota United FC win
Latest market chance 45.4%
Steady
Market view unchanged
45.4% → 45.4%
±0.0 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 26.3%
Steady
Market view unchanged
26.3% → 26.3%
±0.0 pts
Houston Dynamo win
Latest market chance 28.4%
Steady
Market view unchanged
28.4% → 28.4%
±0.0 pts
9 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 2 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
Minnesota United FC
Houston Dynamo
Season Profile
This season
27th
League Position
9th
27
Games Played
27
1.07
Points/Game
1.63
1.48
Goals/Game
1.26
1.81
Conceded/Game
1.19
13.9
Shots/Game
12.8
5.0
Shots on Target
4.1
Home vs Away Context
Minnesota United FC at home (17 matches) vs Houston Dynamo away (17 matches)
1.29
Points/Game
1.29
1.47
Goals/Game
1.41
1.29
Conceded/Game
1.65
29%
Win Rate
35%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Minnesota United FC
Home form
D
L
D
L
L
Winless in last 5 at home
1.6
Goals scored
per match
2.2
Goals conceded
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
VS
Houston Dynamo
Away form
W
W
L
D
L
2W 1D 2L in last 5 away
0.8
Goals scored
per match
0.6
Goals conceded
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
3/5
Clean
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Minnesota United FC Wins
2
Draws
1
Houston Dynamo Wins
2
Avg Goals
2.8
2025-06-262025
Minnesota United FC3 – 1Houston Dynamo
2025-05-152025
Houston Dynamo2 – 0Minnesota United FC
2024-07-142024
Houston Dynamo1 – 1Minnesota United FC
2024-04-142024
Minnesota United FC1 – 2Houston Dynamo
2023-07-132023
Houston Dynamo0 – 3Minnesota United FC
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Minnesota United FC
vs
Houston Dynamo
Recent Scoring Profile
2.10
Goals scored / game
0.90
2.50
Goals conceded / game
0.80
8/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
3/10
10/10
Both Teams Scored
3/10
0/10
Failed to Score
4/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
78.3%
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
56.3%
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
35.6%
BTTSBoth teams score
59.4%
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 7 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 56.4%→Latest 56.3%−0.1 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
7 common bookmakers · first comparable 2 days before kickoff
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 59.4%→Latest 59.4%±0.0 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
6 common bookmakers · first comparable 2 days before kickoff
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Match Poll
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