Inter Miami vs New York City FC Head to Head | MLS

Match Report

Full Time

2 – 0

Match Events

Inter Miami

New York City FC

Germán Berterame (Luis Suárez) ⚽

20'

Rodrigo De Paul (Lionel Messi) ⚽

45+5'

Matías Galarza 🟨

52'

Riquelme Fillipi 🟨

85'

90+7'

• Nicolás Fernández Mercau

Match Statistics

57%

Ball Possession

43%

Total Shots

Shots on Goal

Corner Kicks

Fouls

Yellow Cards

Red Cards

Goalkeeper Saves

Starting Lineups

Inter Miami (4-3-3)

D. St. Clair

G. Luján

Casemiro

Micael

Reguilón

R. De Paul

D. Ayala

M. Galarza

L. Messi

L. Suárez

G. Berterame

New York City FC (4-2-3-1)

M. Freese

T. Gray

Thiago Martins

J. Sands

Nico Cavallo

A. O'Neill

A. Perea

A. Ojeda

N. Fernández Mercau

B. Traoré

A. Martínez

Player Ratings

Inter Miami

R. De PaulM8.2

CasemiroD8.0

D. St. ClairG7.9

New York City FC

N. Fernández MercauM7.1

T. GrayD7.0

M. FreeseG6.9

Before Kickoff

Match Prediction

Data favours

Inter Miami

Inter Miami rate stronger in recent form, attack and head-to-head; defence is closely matched, giving Inter Miami a slight edge.

Leads 3 of 4 major categories

Statistical Edge

No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong

How They Compare

Recent Form

Inter Miami stronger

HomeAway

Attack

Inter Miami stronger

HomeAway

Defence

Closely matched

HomeAway

Head-to-Head

Inter Miami stronger

HomeAway

Match Analysis

Inter Miami have secured two victories from their last five home outings, whereas New York City FC have managed just a solitary win across their last five away fixtures. Inter Miami have scored in all five of their recent home matches but have kept only one clean sheet during that same span. Inter Miami face four confirmed absences, while New York City FC will be without seven players for the clash. Inter Miami rate stronger on form, attack and head-to-head, while defence is closely matched. Inter Miami won the most recent meeting 3-2 on 22 March 2026, having won 2 of the last 5 encounters to New York City FC's 0, with 3 ending level; the fixture has averaged 3.4 goals per meeting. Over the 6-day comparison window, Inter Miami's implied win probability has fallen by 2.1 percentage points, while New York City FC's implied win probability has risen by 1.9 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison gives Inter Miami a slight edge.

Market View

How the betting market has changed its view of this match

Market direction

Notable shift towards New York City FC

New York City FC's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a New York City FC win as more likely than it did 6 days ago. Inter Miami remain the clear market favourite.

Movement strength: Notable

Match odds movement

Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest

Inter Miami win

Latest market chance 62.8%

Notable drift

Market chance decreased

64.5% → 62.8%

−1.7 pts

Draw

Latest market chance 19.2%

Steady

Market view unchanged

19.4% → 19.2%

−0.2 pts

New York City FC win

Latest market chance 18.0%

Notable shortening

Market chance increased

16.0% → 18.0%

+2.0 pts

Movement over time

Change vs first comparable snapshot

6 snapshots

Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.

Inter Miami

Draw

New York City FC

7 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 6 days before kickoff

Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.

Team Comparison

Inter Miami

New York City FC

Season Profile

This season

4th

League Position

19th

Games Played

1.75

Points/Game

1.18

2.43

Goals/Game

1.50

1.79

Conceded/Game

1.36

14.9

Shots/Game

11.9

6.0

Shots on Target

4.7

Home vs Away Context

Inter Miami at home (17 matches) vs New York City FC away (17 matches)

1.59

Points/Game

1.24

2.71

Goals/Game

1.12

1.82

Conceded/Game

1.24

35%

Win Rate

29%

Recent Form

Last 5 home / away matches

Inter Miami

Home form

Unbeaten in last 5 at home

3.4

Goals scored
per match

1.4

Goals conceded
per match

5/5

Scored in
last 5

1/5

Clean
sheets

New York City FC

Away form

1W 3D 1L in last 5 away

1.4

Goals scored
per match

1.2

Goals conceded
per match

5/5

Scored in
last 5

1/5

Clean
sheets

Head-to-Head History

Last 5 meetings

Inter Miami Wins

Draws

New York City FC Wins

Avg Goals

3.4

2026-03-222026

New York City FC2 – 3Inter Miami

2025-09-252025

New York City FC0 – 4Inter Miami

2025-02-232025

Inter Miami2 – 2New York City FC

2024-09-212024

New York City FC1 – 1Inter Miami

2024-03-302024

Inter Miami1 – 1New York City FC

Goals & Scoring Trends

Last 10 matches, any venue

Inter Miami

New York City FC

Recent Scoring Profile

2.30

Goals scored / game

1.10

1.80

Goals conceded / game

1.40

9/10

3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)

5/10

9/10

Both Teams Scored

7/10

0/10

Failed to Score

2/10

Market Goal Expectation

2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)

86.3%

3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)

71.6%

4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)

51.7%

BTTSBoth teams score

65.7%

Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 6 bookmakers.

3+ Goals (Over 2.5)

First comparable 70.7%→Latest 70.7%±0.0 pts

Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot

This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.

3 common bookmakers · first comparable 6 days before kickoff

Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.

Both Teams To Score

First comparable 64.5%→Latest 65.3%+0.8 pts

Slight move towards both teams scoring

This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.

4 common bookmakers · first comparable 6 days before kickoff

Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.

1 of Inter Miami's 10 matches and 1 of New York City FC's 10 matches are from last season.

Match Poll

Who do you think wins?

Inter Miami vs New York City FC Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis