FC Dallas vs San Jose Earthquakes Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Toyota Stadium(Texas)
Sun 25 Oct 2026 · 01:30 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
1.70
Draw
4.29
Away Win
4.26
Match Report
Full Time
3 – 0
Match Events ?
FC Dallas
San Jose Earthquakes
28'
🟨 Reid Roberts
64'
🟨 Angus Gunn
Petar Musa (Bernard Kamungo) ⚽
83'
Petar Musa ⚽ (P)
88'
Santiago Moreno (Ramiro) ⚽
90+4'
Match Statistics ?
52%
Ball Possession
48%
15
Total Shots
4
6
Shots on Goal
1
6
Corner Kicks
1
13
Fouls
13
0
Yellow Cards
2
0
Red Cards
0
3
Offsides
0
1
Goalkeeper Saves
3
Starting Lineups
FC Dallas (3-4-2-1)
Daniel
S. Ibeagha
O. Urhoghide
S. Moore
H. Johansson
Kaick
Ramiro
B. Kamungo
J. Valiente
D. Job
P. Musa
San Jose Earthquakes (3-4-2-1)
A. Gunn
D. Munie
D. Romney
R. Roberts
Jack Jasinski
R. Vieira
E. Löwen
J. Ricketts
Beau Leroux
T. Werner
O. Bouda
Player Ratings ?
FC Dallas
P. MusaF8.2
O. UrhoghideD7.8
RamiroM7.7
San Jose Earthquakes
E. LöwenM6.7
D. RomneyD6.6
D. MunieD6.5
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. FC Dallas edge recent form, attack and head-to-head, defence is closely matched, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
FC Dallas stronger
HomeAway
Attack
FC Dallas slightly stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Closely matched
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
FC Dallas slightly stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
FC Dallas have secured four victories and one draw in their last five home outings, while San Jose Earthquakes remain unbeaten away from home with just a solitary win in that same span. The hosts have found the net in four of their last five matches at this venue, yet they have also kept three clean sheets during that identical period. FC Dallas face no confirmed absences but carry four players with doubt attached to their status, whereas San Jose Earthquakes have two certain outcasts and five others listed as doubtful. FC Dallas rate stronger on form, with a slight advantage in attack and head-to-head, while defence is closely matched. FC Dallas won the most recent meeting 3-2 on 17 May 2026, having won 2 of the last 5 encounters to San Jose Earthquakes's 2, with 1 ending level; the fixture has averaged 4.6 goals per meeting. Over the 7-day comparison window, FC Dallas's implied win probability has risen by 3.3 percentage points, while San Jose Earthquakes's implied win probability has fallen by 2.4 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
6
San Jose Earthquakes unbeaten run
3/5
One-goal H2H results
13
FC Dallas points from last 5 matches
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Strong shift towards FC Dallas
FC Dallas's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a FC Dallas win as more likely than it did 7 days ago.
Movement strength: Strong
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
FC Dallas win
Latest market chance 54.9%
Strong shortening
Market chance increased
51.6% → 54.9%
+3.3 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 22.6%
Slight drift
Market chance decreased
23.5% → 22.6%
−0.9 pts
San Jose Earthquakes win
Latest market chance 22.5%
Notable drift
Market chance decreased
24.9% → 22.5%
−2.4 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
FC Dallas
Draw
San Jose Earthquakes
4 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 7 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
FC DallasSan Jose Earthquakes
Season Profile
This season
6th
League Position
7th
30
Games Played
30
1.70
Points/Game
1.60
1.83
Goals/Game
1.73
1.57
Conceded/Game
1.40
12.8
Shots/Game
13.3
4.8
Shots on Target
4.9
Home vs Away Context
FC Dallas at home (17 matches) vs San Jose Earthquakes away (17 matches)
1.88
Points/Game
1.53
1.88
Goals/Game
1.59
1.35
Conceded/Game
1.47
53%
Win Rate
41%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
FC Dallas
Home form
W
W
D
W
W
Unbeaten in last 5 at home
1.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
0.8
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
3/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
San Jose Earthquakes
Away form
D
D
W
D
D
Unbeaten in last 5 away
1.2
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
FC Dallas Wins
2
Draws
1
San Jose Earthquakes Wins
2
Avg Goals
4.6
San Jose Earthquakes2 – 3FC Dallas
San Jose Earthquakes2 – 2FC Dallas
FC Dallas2 – 4San Jose Earthquakes
San Jose Earthquakes3 – 2FC Dallas
FC Dallas2 – 1San Jose Earthquakes
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
FC Dallasvs
San Jose Earthquakes
Recent Scoring Profile
1.70
Goals scored / game
1.40
1.80
Goals conceded / game
1.40
7/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
4/10
6/10
Both Teams Scored
8/10
2/10
Failed to Score
1/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 6 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 62.9%→Latest 65.7%+2.8 pts
Notable move towards 3+ goals
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 63.5%→Latest 63.9%+0.4 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
3 of FC Dallas's 10 matches and 3 of San Jose Earthquakes's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?