FC Cincinnati vs New England Revolution Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
TQL Stadium
Thu 15 Oct 2026 · 00:30 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
1.86
Draw
4.27
Away Win
3.70
Match Report
Full Time
2 – 3
Match Events ?
FC Cincinnati
New England Revolution
4'
🟨 Ilay Feingold
Tom Barlow (Tyrell Malacia) ⚽
13'
21'
⚽ Dor Turgeman (Peyton Miller)
Tyrell Malacia 🟨
31'
43'
⚽ Joshua Wynder (Carles Gil)
Tom Barlow 🟨
44'
51'
⚽ Dor Turgeman (Peyton Miller)
Kevin Denkey (Tyrell Malacia) ⚽
67'
83'
🟨 M. Mitrovic
Evander 🟨
84'
Match Statistics ?
58%
Ball Possession
42%
21
Total Shots
10
9
Shots on Goal
5
12
Corner Kicks
5
8
Fouls
7
3
Yellow Cards
1
0
Red Cards
0
2
Offsides
4
2
Goalkeeper Saves
7
Starting Lineups
FC Cincinnati (3-5-2)
E. Louro
K. Smith
J. Malatini
T. Hadebe
E. Echenique
B. Anunga
G. Valenzuela
O. Nwobodo
T. Malacia
T. Barlow
K. Denkey
New England Revolution (4-2-3-1)
M. Turner
I. Feingold
E. Kohler
J. Wynder
W. Sands
M. Polster
B. Raines
P. Miller
Carles Gil
D. Gazdag
D. Turgeman
Player Ratings ?
FC Cincinnati
T. MalaciaM8.0
K. DenkeyF7.8
T. BarlowF7.3
New England Revolution
D. TurgemanF9.2
P. MillerM8.0
J. WynderD7.9
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. FC Cincinnati edge attack and head-to-head, New England Revolution edge recent form and defence, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
New England Revolution stronger
HomeAway
Attack
FC Cincinnati slightly stronger
HomeAway
Defence
New England Revolution stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
FC Cincinnati slightly stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
New England Revolution have recorded three victories from their last five away outings, while FC Cincinnati remain unbeaten in their last five home matches with three wins and two draws. FC Cincinnati have scored in all of their last five home fixtures but have failed to keep a clean sheet during that same period. FC Cincinnati face one confirmed absence and two doubtful players, whereas the New England Revolution have three confirmed absences alongside one player in doubt. New England Revolution rate stronger on form and defence, while FC Cincinnati hold a slight advantage in attack and head-to-head. New England Revolution won the most recent meeting 6-1 on 15 March 2026, having won 2 of the last 5 encounters to FC Cincinnati's 3, with 0 ending level; the fixture has averaged 3.0 goals per meeting. Over the 6-day comparison window, FC Cincinnati's implied win probability has risen by 4.2 percentage points, while New England Revolution's implied win probability has fallen by 3.8 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
4
New England Revolution unbeaten run
4/5
One-goal H2H results
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Strong shift towards FC Cincinnati
FC Cincinnati's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a FC Cincinnati win as more likely than it did 6 days ago.
Movement strength: Strong
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
FC Cincinnati win
Latest market chance 50.6%
Strong shortening
Market chance increased
46.4% → 50.6%
+4.2 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 23.2%
Steady
Market view unchanged
23.7% → 23.2%
−0.5 pts
New England Revolution win
Latest market chance 26.2%
Strong drift
Market chance decreased
30.0% → 26.2%
−3.8 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
FC Cincinnati
Draw
New England Revolution
6 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 6 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
FC CincinnatiNew England Revolution
Season Profile
This season
16th
League Position
9th
27
Games Played
28
1.33
Points/Game
1.64
2.15
Goals/Game
1.61
2.41
Conceded/Game
1.39
14.3
Shots/Game
12.0
5.6
Shots on Target
4.8
Home vs Away Context
FC Cincinnati at home (18 matches) vs New England Revolution away (17 matches)
1.67
Points/Game
1.35
2.17
Goals/Game
1.41
1.89
Conceded/Game
1.59
50%
Win Rate
41%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
FC Cincinnati
Home form
W
W
W
D
D
Unbeaten in last 5 at home
2.8
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
New England Revolution
Away form
W
L
W
W
L
Won 3 of last 5 away
1.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.6
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
FC Cincinnati Wins
3
Draws
0
New England Revolution Wins
2
Avg Goals
3.0
New England Revolution6 – 1FC Cincinnati
New England Revolution0 – 1FC Cincinnati
FC Cincinnati1 – 0New England Revolution
FC Cincinnati1 – 2New England Revolution
New England Revolution1 – 2FC Cincinnati
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
FC Cincinnativs
New England Revolution
Recent Scoring Profile
1.70
Goals scored / game
1.70
2.30
Goals conceded / game
1.60
8/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
9/10
8/10
Both Teams Scored
7/10
2/10
Failed to Score
2/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 6 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 68.7%→Latest 68.0%−0.7 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
The market is more cautious on 3+ goals than both teams' recent records.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 68.9%→Latest 67.1%−1.8 pts
Notable move away from both teams scoring
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.
1 of FC Cincinnati's 10 matches and 1 of New England Revolution's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?