FC Cincinnati vs Nashville SC Head to Head | MLS

Match Report

Full Time

0 – 2

Match Events

FC Cincinnati

Nashville SC

Obinna Nwobodo 🟨

31'

Evander 🟨

41'

Samuel Mawuena Gidi 🟨

45+3'

61'

⚽ Sam Surridge (Andy Najar)

Kyle Smith 🟨

65'

86'

⚽ Sam Surridge (Patrick Yazbek)

Pavel Bucha 🟨

88'

90'

🟨 Alex Muyl

90+6'

🟨 Maxwell Woledzi

Match Statistics

49%

Ball Possession

51%

Total Shots

Shots on Goal

Corner Kicks

Fouls

Yellow Cards

Red Cards

Offsides

Goalkeeper Saves

Starting Lineups

FC Cincinnati (3-4-1-2)

R. Celentano

K. Smith

T. Hadebe

S. Gidi

D. Douděra

P. Bucha

O. Nwobodo

Bryan Josías Ramírez León

Evander

K. Denkey

T. Barlow

Nashville SC (4-2-3-1)

B. Schwake

A. Najar

M. Woledzi

J. Maher

R. Baker-Whiting

P. Yazbek

M. Corcoran

C. Espinoza

H. Mukhtar

E. Saad

S. Surridge

Player Ratings

FC Cincinnati

T. BarlowF6.8

EvanderM6.7

M. RobinsonD6.6

Nashville SC

S. SurridgeF9.0

B. SchwakeG7.7

P. YazbekM7.7

Before Kickoff

Match Prediction

No clear statistical edge

The matchup is mixed. FC Cincinnati edge head-to-head, Nashville SC edge recent form and defence, attack is closely matched, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.

Statistical Edge

No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong

How They Compare

Recent Form

Nashville SC stronger

HomeAway

Attack

Closely matched

HomeAway

Defence

Nashville SC stronger

HomeAway

Head-to-Head

FC Cincinnati slightly stronger

HomeAway

Match Analysis

Nashville SC have recorded two wins and two draws from their last five away fixtures, while FC Cincinnati have suffered three defeats in that same span at home. FC Cincinnati have found the net in three of their last five home matches but have only managed a single clean sheet during that period. Nashville SC rate stronger on form and defence, while FC Cincinnati hold a slight advantage in head-to-head, while attack is closely matched. Nashville SC won the most recent meeting 4-0 on 30 August 2026, having won 2 of the last 5 encounters to FC Cincinnati's 2, with 1 ending level; the fixture has averaged 3.2 goals per meeting. Over the 3-day comparison window, FC Cincinnati's implied win probability has fallen by 2.3 percentage points, while Nashville SC's implied win probability has risen by 2.2 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.

Market View

How the betting market has changed its view of this match

Market direction

Notable shift away from FC Cincinnati

FC Cincinnati's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a FC Cincinnati win as less likely than it did 3 days ago. Nashville SC remain the clear market favourite.

Movement strength: Notable

Match odds movement

Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest

FC Cincinnati win

Latest market chance 37.1%

Notable drift

Market chance decreased

39.4% → 37.1%

−2.3 pts

Draw

Latest market chance 24.7%

Steady

Market view unchanged

24.6% → 24.7%

+0.1 pts

Nashville SC win

Latest market chance 38.2%

Notable shortening

Market chance increased

36.0% → 38.2%

+2.2 pts

Movement over time

Change vs first comparable snapshot

4 snapshots

Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.

FC Cincinnati

Draw

Nashville SC

9 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 3 days before kickoff

Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.

Team Comparison

FC Cincinnati

Nashville SC

Season Profile

This season

13th

League Position

1st

Games Played

1.39

Points/Game

2.24

2.03

Goals/Game

2.09

2.21

Conceded/Game

0.76

14.3

Shots/Game

12.9

5.6

Shots on Target

5.1

Home vs Away Context

FC Cincinnati at home (18 matches) vs Nashville SC away (17 matches)

1.67

Points/Game

1.76

2.17

Goals/Game

1.35

1.89

Conceded/Game

0.65

50%

Win Rate

47%

Recent Form

Last 5 home / away matches

FC Cincinnati

Home form

Lost 3 of last 5 at home

1.0

Goals scored
per match

1.6

Goals conceded
per match

3/5

Scored in
last 5

1/5

Clean
sheets

Nashville SC

Away form

2W 2D 1L in last 5 away

2.0

Goals scored
per match

1.2

Goals conceded
per match

5/5

Scored in
last 5

1/5

Clean
sheets

Head-to-Head History

Last 5 meetings

FC Cincinnati Wins

Draws

Nashville SC Wins

Avg Goals

3.2

2026-08-302026

Nashville SC4 – 0FC Cincinnati

2025-09-142025

FC Cincinnati2 – 1Nashville SC

2025-03-302025

Nashville SC1 – 2FC Cincinnati

2024-09-222024

Nashville SC2 – 2FC Cincinnati

2024-05-302024

FC Cincinnati0 – 2Nashville SC

Goals & Scoring Trends

Last 10 matches, any venue

FC Cincinnati

Nashville SC

Recent Scoring Profile

1.50

Goals scored / game

2.20

1.60

Goals conceded / game

0.80

6/10

3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)

6/10

Both Teams Scored

5/10

2/10

Failed to Score

1/10

Market Goal Expectation

2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)

84.4%

3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)

65.8%

4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)

45.5%

BTTSBoth teams score

67.0%

Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 7 bookmakers.

3+ Goals (Over 2.5)

First comparable 66.3%→Latest 65.8%−0.5 pts

Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot

7 common bookmakers · first comparable 3 days before kickoff

The market is pricing a higher chance of 3+ goals than either team's recent rate.

Both Teams To Score

First comparable 67.4%→Latest 66.7%−0.7 pts

Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot

5 common bookmakers · first comparable 3 days before kickoff

The market is pricing a higher chance of both teams scoring than either team's recent rate.

7 of FC Cincinnati's 10 matches and 6 of Nashville SC's 10 matches are from last season.

Match Poll

Who do you think wins?

FC Cincinnati vs Nashville SC Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis