FC Cincinnati vs Columbus Crew Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
TQL Stadium
Sun 18 Oct 2026 · 22:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
2.40
Draw
3.95
Away Win
2.71
Match Report
Full Time
0 – 2
Match Events ?
FC Cincinnati
Columbus Crew
22'
⚽ Gonzalo Tapia (Brais Méndez)
Samuel Mawuena Gidi 🟨
28'
Teenage Hadebe 🟨
31'
45+7'
🟨 André Gomes
54'
⚽ Taha Habroune (Gonzalo Tapia)
90+3'
🟨 Dylan Chambost
Match Statistics ?
55%
Ball Possession
45%
23
Total Shots
3
7
Shots on Goal
2
2
Corner Kicks
2
13
Fouls
16
2
Yellow Cards
2
0
Red Cards
0
2
Offsides
4
0
Goalkeeper Saves
7
Starting Lineups
FC Cincinnati (3-4-1-2)
R. Celentano
S. Gidi
J. Malatini
T. Hadebe
D. Douděra
O. Nwobodo
P. Bucha
T. Malacia
Evander
T. Barlow
K. Denkey
Columbus Crew (3-4-3)
P. Schulte
S. Moreira
S. Zawadzki
M. Amundsen
M. Herrera
André Gomes
T. Habroune
B. Lennon
Brais Méndez
G. Tapia
S. Rodríguez
Player Ratings ?
FC Cincinnati
T. BarlowF7.0
T. MalaciaM6.9
E. EcheniqueF6.9
Columbus Crew
P. SchulteG8.3
G. TapiaF8.3
T. HabrouneM8.1
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. FC Cincinnati edge attack, Columbus Crew edge recent form, defence and head-to-head, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Columbus Crew stronger
HomeAway
Attack
FC Cincinnati slightly stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Columbus Crew slightly stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Columbus Crew stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
FC Cincinnati have secured two victories and two draws from their last five home outings, whereas Columbus Crew have recorded just one win in four of their defeats across their last five away matches. FC Cincinnati have found the net in all five of their home fixtures while failing to keep a single clean sheet during that same recent run. Both squads face similar roster challenges, with FC Cincinnati and Columbus Crew each having two players unavailable for selection ahead of this MLS fixture. Columbus Crew rate stronger on form and head-to-head, with a slight advantage in defence, while FC Cincinnati hold a slight advantage in attack. Columbus Crew won the most recent meeting 2-1 on 26 July 2026, having won 2 of the last 5 encounters to FC Cincinnati's 1, with 2 ending level; the fixture has averaged 2.8 goals per meeting. Over the 6-day comparison window, FC Cincinnati's implied win probability has fallen by 8.9 percentage points, while Columbus Crew's implied win probability has risen by 8.4 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
4
Columbus Crew losing run
3
Columbus Crew points from last 5 matches
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Strong shift away from FC Cincinnati
FC Cincinnati's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a FC Cincinnati win as less likely than it did 6 days ago.
Movement strength: Strong
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
FC Cincinnati win
Latest market chance 40.5%
Strong drift
Market chance decreased
49.4% → 40.5%
−8.9 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 23.9%
Steady
Market view unchanged
23.4% → 23.9%
+0.5 pts
Columbus Crew win
Latest market chance 35.6%
Strong shortening
Market chance increased
27.2% → 35.6%
+8.4 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
FC Cincinnati
Draw
Columbus Crew
4 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 6 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
FC CincinnatiColumbus Crew
Season Profile
This season
17th
League Position
26th
28
Games Played
29
1.29
Points/Game
1.10
2.14
Goals/Game
1.52
2.43
Conceded/Game
1.62
14.3
Shots/Game
12.6
5.6
Shots on Target
4.6
Home vs Away Context
FC Cincinnati at home (18 matches) vs Columbus Crew away (18 matches)
1.67
Points/Game
1.17
2.17
Goals/Game
1.78
1.89
Conceded/Game
1.83
50%
Win Rate
33%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
FC Cincinnati
Home form
W
W
D
D
L
2W 2D 1L in last 5 at home
2.4
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Columbus Crew
Away form
L
L
L
W
L
Lost 4 of last 5 away
1.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.2
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
FC Cincinnati Wins
1
Draws
2
Columbus Crew Wins
2
Avg Goals
2.8
Columbus Crew2 – 1FC Cincinnati
FC Cincinnati2 – 4Columbus Crew
Columbus Crew1 – 1FC Cincinnati
FC Cincinnati0 – 0Columbus Crew
Columbus Crew1 – 2FC Cincinnati
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
FC Cincinnativs
Columbus Crew
Recent Scoring Profile
1.50
Goals scored / game
1.70
2.40
Goals conceded / game
1.60
8/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
8/10
8/10
Both Teams Scored
7/10
2/10
Failed to Score
1/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 4 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 68.0%→Latest 70.0%+2.0 pts
Notable move towards 3+ goals
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
The market is more cautious on 3+ goals than both teams' recent records.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 67.8%→Latest 70.6%+2.8 pts
Notable move towards both teams scoring
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
2 of FC Cincinnati's 10 matches and 2 of Columbus Crew's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?