Chicago Fire vs Philadelphia Union Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Soldier Field
Thu 15 Oct 2026 · 01:30 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
2.50
Draw
3.70
Away Win
2.64
Match Report
Full Time
1 – 3
Match Events ?
Chicago Fire
Philadelphia Union
Mbekezeli Mbokazi 🟨
34'
Jack Elliott 🟨
41'
Maren Haile-Selassie (Noah Allen) ⚽
44'
Jack Elliott 🟥
45+1'
49'
⚽ Milan Iloski (Bruno Damiani)
55'
⚽ Bruno Damiani (Cavan Sullivan)
67'
⚽ Bruno Damiani (Jovan Lukic)
85'
🟨 Indiana Vassilev
Philip Zinckernagel 🟨
88'
90+3'
🟨 Neil Pierre
Match Statistics ?
49%
Ball Possession
51%
8
Total Shots
19
4
Shots on Goal
8
2
Corner Kicks
7
12
Fouls
16
3
Yellow Cards
2
1
Red Cards
0
3
Offsides
1
4
Goalkeeper Saves
3
Starting Lineups
Chicago Fire (4-4-2)
C. Brady
J. Dean
J. Elliott
M. Mbokazi
N. Allen
J. Gómez
A. Salétros
M. Pineda
J. Bamba
R. Lewandowski
M. Haile-Selassie
Philadelphia Union (4-4-2)
A. Blake
F. Westfield
Neil Pierre
N. Harriel
K. Wagner
Cavan Sullivan
J. Bueno
J. Lukić
Q. Sullivan
M. Iloski
B. Damiani
Player Ratings ?
Chicago Fire
M. Haile-SelassieF7.9
P. DithejaneF6.7
N. AllenD6.6
Philadelphia Union
B. DamianiF9.3
M. IloskiF8.2
J. LukićM7.3
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Philadelphia Union edge recent form, attack and defence, head-to-head is closely matched, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Philadelphia Union stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Philadelphia Union stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Philadelphia Union slightly stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Closely matched
HomeAway
Match Analysis
The Philadelphia Union have enjoyed a perfect away record with four wins and just one draw in their last five matches, while Chicago Fire have secured three victories from five at home but suffered a defeat in that same span. Chicago Fire have found the net in all five of their recent home outings and have failed to keep a clean sheet across that identical run of matches. Two Chicago Fire players are unavailable with two more listed as doubtful, whereas only one Philadelphia Union player is confirmed out for the upcoming clash. Philadelphia Union rate stronger on form and attack, with a slight advantage in defence, while head-to-head is closely matched. Chicago Fire won the most recent meeting 2-1 on 21 March 2026, having won 2 of the last 5 encounters to Philadelphia Union's 2, with 1 ending level; the fixture has averaged 3.8 goals per meeting. Over the 6-day comparison window, Chicago Fire's implied win probability has risen by 2.6 percentage points, while Philadelphia Union's implied win probability has fallen by 3.4 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
6
Philadelphia Union losing run
3/5
One-goal H2H results
13
Philadelphia Union points from last 5 matches
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Strong shift away from Philadelphia Union
Philadelphia Union's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Philadelphia Union win as less likely than it did 6 days ago. Chicago Fire remain the clear market favourite.
Movement strength: Strong
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Chicago Fire win
Latest market chance 38.7%
Notable shortening
Market chance increased
36.0% → 38.7%
+2.7 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 24.6%
Slight shortening
Market chance increased
23.8% → 24.6%
+0.8 pts
Philadelphia Union win
Latest market chance 36.6%
Strong drift
Market chance decreased
40.2% → 36.6%
−3.6 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Chicago Fire
Draw
Philadelphia Union
7 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 6 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
Chicago FirePhiladelphia Union
Season Profile
This season
5th
League Position
12th
28
Games Played
28
1.71
Points/Game
1.50
1.82
Goals/Game
2.00
1.43
Conceded/Game
1.61
14.5
Shots/Game
16.6
5.2
Shots on Target
5.5
Home vs Away Context
Chicago Fire at home (17 matches) vs Philadelphia Union away (17 matches)
1.71
Points/Game
1.24
1.94
Goals/Game
2.00
1.47
Conceded/Game
1.94
53%
Win Rate
35%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Chicago Fire
Home form
W
D
L
W
W
Won 3 of last 5 at home
1.8
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.2
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Philadelphia Union
Away form
W
D
W
W
W
Won 3 straight away
3.2
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Chicago Fire Wins
2
Draws
1
Philadelphia Union Wins
2
Avg Goals
3.8
Philadelphia Union1 – 2Chicago Fire
Philadelphia Union4 – 0Chicago Fire
Chicago Fire0 – 1Philadelphia Union
Chicago Fire4 – 3Philadelphia Union
Philadelphia Union2 – 2Chicago Fire
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Chicago Firevs
Philadelphia Union
Recent Scoring Profile
1.70
Goals scored / game
3.10
1.60
Goals conceded / game
1.20
7/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
8/10
8/10
Both Teams Scored
7/10
1/10
Failed to Score
0/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 7 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 67.8%→Latest 67.5%−0.3 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 68.8%→Latest 67.5%−1.3 pts
Slight move away from both teams scoring
Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.
2 of Chicago Fire's 10 matches and 1 of Philadelphia Union's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?