Chicago Fire vs New York City FC Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis

Archived Result — stats and prediction shown as they stood before kickoff
Soldier Field
Sat 10 Oct 2026 · 19:30 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
1.83
Draw
4.03
Away Win
4.03
Match Report
Full Time
2 – 1
Match Events ?
Chicago Fire
New York City FC
19'
⚽ Hannes Wolf (Agustin Ojeda)
Djé D'Avilla 🟨
20'
Djé D'Avilla 🟥
43'
Anton Saletros (Maren Haile-Selassie) ⚽
55'
Mbekezeli Mbokazi 🟨
64'
Maren Haile-Selassie ⚽
87'
Mauricio Pineda 🟨
90+4'
Match Statistics ?
47%
Ball Possession
53%
14
Total Shots
12
4
Shots on Goal
6
4
Corner Kicks
4
18
Fouls
10
2
Yellow Cards
0
1
Red Cards
0
4
Offsides
2
5
Goalkeeper Saves
2
Starting Lineups
Chicago Fire (4-4-2)
C. Brady
J. Dean
J. Elliott
M. Mbokazi
Leonardo Barroso
P. Zinckernagel
A. Salétros
T. D'Avilla
J. Bamba
R. Lewandowski
M. Haile-Selassie
New York City FC (4-2-3-1)
M. Freese
T. Gray
Thiago Martins
J. Sands
Nico Cavallo
A. O'Neill
A. Perea
A. Ojeda
N. Fernández Mercau
H. Wolf
A. Martínez
Player Ratings ?
Chicago Fire
M. Haile-SelassieF9.0
A. SalétrosM7.6
P. ZinckernagelM6.9
New York City FC
H. WolfM7.6
N. Fernández MercauM7.2
Thiago MartinsD7.1
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Chicago Fire edge recent form and attack, New York City FC edge head-to-head, defence is closely matched, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Chicago Fire stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Chicago Fire stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Closely matched
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
New York City FC stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
New York City FC have recorded just one win from their last five away fixtures, while Chicago Fire boast three victories in their most recent five home outings. Chicago Fire have found the net in all of their last five matches at this venue but have failed to keep a clean sheet during that same span. Chicago Fire face one confirmed absence, whereas New York City FC carry three players out and another trio listed as doubtful for selection. Chicago Fire rate stronger on form and attack, while New York City FC rate stronger on head-to-head, while defence is closely matched. New York City FC won the most recent meeting 3-1 on 26 July 2026, having won 3 of the last 5 encounters to Chicago Fire's 0, with 2 ending level; the fixture has averaged 3.2 goals per meeting. The market has remained broadly steady over the 1-day comparison window, with little change in either side's implied win probability. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
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Market View
?
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Little change in the market
The betting market's view of this match has barely moved since the earliest comparable snapshot, 1 day before kickoff.
Movement strength: Steady
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Chicago Fire win
Latest market chance 51.9%
Steady
Market view unchanged
51.9% → 51.9%
±0.0 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 24.2%
Steady
Market view unchanged
24.2% → 24.2%
±0.0 pts
New York City FC win
Latest market chance 23.9%
Steady
Market view unchanged
23.9% → 23.9%
±0.0 pts
9 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 1 day before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
Chicago Fire
New York City FC
Season Profile
This season
7th
League Position
17th
27
Games Played
27
1.67
Points/Game
1.22
1.81
Goals/Game
1.52
1.44
Conceded/Game
1.33
14.5
Shots/Game
11.9
5.2
Shots on Target
4.7
Home vs Away Context
Chicago Fire at home (17 matches) vs New York City FC away (17 matches)
1.71
Points/Game
1.24
1.94
Goals/Game
1.12
1.47
Conceded/Game
1.24
53%
Win Rate
29%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Chicago Fire
Home form
W
W
D
L
W
Won 3 of last 5 at home
1.8
Goals scored
per match
1.2
Goals conceded
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
VS
New York City FC
Away form
L
D
D
W
D
1W 3D 1L in last 5 away
1.4
Goals scored
per match
1.2
Goals conceded
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Chicago Fire Wins
0
Draws
2
New York City FC Wins
3
Avg Goals
3.2
2026-07-262026
New York City FC3 – 1Chicago Fire
2025-09-142025
Chicago Fire1 – 3New York City FC
2025-05-252025
New York City FC3 – 1Chicago Fire
2024-08-252024
New York City FC2 – 2Chicago Fire
2024-07-142024
Chicago Fire0 – 0New York City FC
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Chicago Fire
vs
New York City FC
Recent Scoring Profile
1.70
Goals scored / game
1.10
1.60
Goals conceded / game
1.30
7/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
4/10
8/10
Both Teams Scored
7/10
1/10
Failed to Score
2/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
81.1%
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
60.5%
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
39.7%
BTTSBoth teams score
61.5%
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 6 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 60.5%→Latest 60.5%±0.0 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
7 common bookmakers · first comparable 1 day before kickoff
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 61.5%→Latest 61.5%±0.0 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
6 common bookmakers · first comparable 1 day before kickoff
The market is more cautious on both teams scoring than both teams' recent records.
1 of Chicago Fire's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?
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