CF Montreal vs Atlanta United FC Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Saputo Stadium
Thu 15 Oct 2026 · 00:30 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
2.36
Draw
3.81
Away Win
2.84
Match Report
Full Time
0 – 3
Match Events ?
CF Montreal
Atlanta United FC
22'
⚽ Miguel Almirón (Elías Báez)
41'
⚽ Giuliano Galoppo
58'
🟨 Lucas Hoyos
60'
⚽ Breel Embolo
Olger Escobar 🟨
83'
90+1'
🟨 Fafà Picault
Match Statistics ?
52%
Ball Possession
48%
9
Total Shots
18
2
Shots on Goal
6
7
Corner Kicks
6
16
Fouls
15
1
Yellow Cards
2
0
Red Cards
0
1
Offsides
1
3
Goalkeeper Saves
2
Starting Lineups
CF Montreal (4-2-3-1)
S. Breza
D. Bugaj
J. Neal
B. Craig
L. Petrasso
M. Longstaff
D. Pereira
W. Carmona
A. Sánchez
N. Streit
D. Ríos
Atlanta United FC (4-1-4-1)
L. Hoyos
Matthew Edwards
P. Díaz
J. Alonso
E. Báez
M. Amaro
A. Miranchuk
A. Fortune
G. Galoppo
M. Almirón
B. Embolo
Player Ratings ?
CF Montreal
H. SynchukM6.7
F. HerbersF6.5
A. SánchezM6.5
Atlanta United FC
G. GaloppoM8.2
M. AlmirónM8.2
B. EmboloF8.0
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Atlanta United FC edge recent form, defence and head-to-head, attack is closely matched, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Atlanta United FC stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Closely matched
HomeAway
Defence
Atlanta United FC stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Atlanta United FC stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
CF Montreal have recorded just one victory from their last five home outings, while Atlanta United FC have managed two wins in their corresponding away sample. The hosts have scored in four of their last five matches at home but have failed to keep a clean sheet during that same period. Both sides face squad selection challenges, with CF Montreal having two confirmed out and one doubtful player, whereas Atlanta United FC have two players unavailable without any doubts attached. Atlanta United FC rate stronger on form, defence and head-to-head, while attack is closely matched. Atlanta United FC won the most recent meeting 3-1 on 3 May 2026, having won 2 of the last 5 encounters to CF Montreal's 2, with 1 ending level; the fixture has averaged 3.0 goals per meeting. Over the 6-day comparison window, CF Montreal's implied win probability has fallen by 3.1 percentage points, while Atlanta United FC's implied win probability has risen by 3.1 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
5
CF Montreal losing run
3/5
One-goal H2H results
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Strong shift away from CF Montreal
CF Montreal's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a CF Montreal win as less likely than it did 6 days ago.
Movement strength: Strong
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
CF Montreal win
Latest market chance 41.4%
Strong drift
Market chance decreased
44.5% → 41.4%
−3.1 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 25.3%
Steady
Market view unchanged
25.3% → 25.3%
±0.0 pts
Atlanta United FC win
Latest market chance 33.3%
Strong shortening
Market chance increased
30.2% → 33.3%
+3.1 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
CF Montreal
Draw
Atlanta United FC
7 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 6 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
CF MontrealAtlanta United FC
Season Profile
This season
29th
League Position
28th
28
Games Played
28
0.86
Points/Game
0.96
1.25
Goals/Game
1.18
2.00
Conceded/Game
1.71
12.4
Shots/Game
13.2
4.4
Shots on Target
4.1
Home vs Away Context
CF Montreal at home (17 matches) vs Atlanta United FC away (17 matches)
1.00
Points/Game
0.94
1.12
Goals/Game
1.00
1.47
Conceded/Game
1.59
24%
Win Rate
24%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
CF Montreal
Home form
D
D
L
L
W
1W 2D 2L in last 5 at home
1.4
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.6
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Atlanta United FC
Away form
L
W
D
D
W
2W 2D 1L in last 5 away
1.4
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.2
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
CF Montreal Wins
2
Draws
1
Atlanta United FC Wins
2
Avg Goals
3.0
Atlanta United FC3 – 1CF Montreal
CF Montreal1 – 1Atlanta United FC
Atlanta United FC3 – 2CF Montreal
Atlanta United FC1 – 2CF Montreal
CF Montreal1 – 0Atlanta United FC
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
CF Montrealvs
Atlanta United FC
Recent Scoring Profile
1.10
Goals scored / game
1.40
2.10
Goals conceded / game
1.50
6/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
7/10
7/10
Both Teams Scored
7/10
3/10
Failed to Score
2/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 6 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 59.9%→Latest 60.7%+0.8 pts
Slight move towards 3+ goals
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 62.2%→Latest 62.8%+0.6 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
The market is more cautious on both teams scoring than both teams' recent records.
1 of CF Montreal's 10 matches and 1 of Atlanta United FC's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?