Atlanta United FC vs Toronto FC Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Atlanta Stadium
Sun 01 Nov 2026 · 21:30 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
2.16
Draw
4.02
Away Win
3.03
Match Report
Full Time
3 – 1
Match Events ?
Atlanta United FC
Toronto FC
Miguel Almirón (Aleksey Miranchuk) ⚽
22'
33'
🟨 Dániel Sallói
Cooper Sanchez (Miguel Almirón) ⚽
40'
Aleksey Miranchuk ⚽
51'
79'
⚽ Lewis Morgan (Josh Sargent)
90+2'
🟨 Alonso
Match Statistics ?
48%
Ball Possession
52%
19
Total Shots
13
8
Shots on Goal
3
3
Corner Kicks
3
14
Fouls
10
0
Yellow Cards
2
0
Red Cards
0
2
Offsides
0
2
Goalkeeper Saves
5
Starting Lineups
Atlanta United FC (4-3-3)
L. Hoyos
T. Jacob
P. Díaz
J. Alonso
E. Báez
C. Sanchez
M. Amaro
G. Galoppo
A. Miranchuk
B. Embolo
M. Almirón
Toronto FC (4-3-3)
L. Gavran
R. Laryea
B. Kuscevic
N. Gomis
Matheus Pereira
J. Osorio
N. Dorsch
D. Mihailović
T. Corbeanu
J. Sargent
D. Sallói
Player Ratings ?
Atlanta United FC
A. MiranchukF9.0
M. AlmirónF8.8
C. SanchezM8.2
Toronto FC
L. MorganF7.8
T. CorbeanuF7.0
L. GavranG6.8
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Atlanta United FC edge defence and head-to-head, Toronto FC edge recent form, attack is closely matched, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Toronto FC stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Closely matched
HomeAway
Defence
Atlanta United FC stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Atlanta United FC stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Toronto FC have recorded just one win from their last five away outings, while Atlanta United FC remain winless in four of their last five home matches. Atlanta United FC have scored in all five of their recent home fixtures but have failed to keep a clean sheet during that same period. Atlanta United FC face one confirmed absence and two players in doubt, whereas Toronto FC have three confirmed absences with no doubts surrounding their squad. Toronto FC rate stronger on form, while Atlanta United FC rate stronger on defence and head-to-head, while attack is closely matched. Atlanta United FC won the most recent meeting 2-1 on 25 April 2026, having won 2 of the last 5 encounters to Toronto FC's 1, with 2 ending level; the fixture has averaged 2.0 goals per meeting. The market has remained broadly steady over the 2-day comparison window, with little change in either side's implied win probability. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
4
Atlanta United FC losing run
1
Atlanta United FC points from last 5 matches
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Little change in the market
The betting market's view of this match has barely moved since the earliest comparable snapshot, 2 days before kickoff.
Movement strength: Steady
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Atlanta United FC win
Latest market chance 43.5%
Steady
Market view unchanged
43.4% → 43.5%
+0.1 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 24.4%
Steady
Market view unchanged
24.1% → 24.4%
+0.3 pts
Toronto FC win
Latest market chance 32.1%
Steady
Market view unchanged
32.5% → 32.1%
−0.4 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Atlanta United FC
Draw
Toronto FC
8 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 2 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
Atlanta United FCToronto FC
Season Profile
This season
28th
League Position
22nd
32
Games Played
32
0.94
Points/Game
1.22
1.25
Goals/Game
1.56
1.75
Conceded/Game
1.88
13.2
Shots/Game
12.1
4.1
Shots on Target
4.4
Home vs Away Context
Atlanta United FC at home (17 matches) vs Toronto FC away (17 matches)
1.00
Points/Game
0.71
1.53
Goals/Game
0.94
1.94
Conceded/Game
2.00
29%
Win Rate
18%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Atlanta United FC
Home form
L
D
L
L
L
Lost 3 straight at home
1.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.8
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Toronto FC
Away form
L
L
L
W
L
Lost 4 of last 5 away
1.0
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Atlanta United FC Wins
2
Draws
2
Toronto FC Wins
1
Avg Goals
2.0
Toronto FC1 – 2Atlanta United FC
Atlanta United FC0 – 0Toronto FC
Toronto FC1 – 1Atlanta United FC
Atlanta United FC2 – 1Toronto FC
Toronto FC2 – 0Atlanta United FC
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Atlanta United FCvs
Toronto FC
Recent Scoring Profile
1.50
Goals scored / game
1.80
1.80
Goals conceded / game
2.20
8/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
8/10
7/10
Both Teams Scored
7/10
1/10
Failed to Score
2/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 6 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 65.2%→Latest 65.2%±0.0 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
The market is more cautious on 3+ goals than both teams' recent records.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 65.9%→Latest 66.2%+0.3 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.
5 of Atlanta United FC's 10 matches and 5 of Toronto FC's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?