Atlanta United FC vs FC Cincinnati Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Atlanta Stadium
Sun 11 Oct 2026 · 00:30 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
2.45
Draw
3.94
Away Win
2.65
Match Report
Full Time
1 – 3
Match Events ?
Atlanta United FC
FC Cincinnati
2'
🟨 Teenage Hadebe
Tomás Jacob 🟨
43'
52'
⚽ Kevin Denkey (Tom Barlow)
Miguel Almirón (Breel Embolo) ⚽
69'
84'
⚽ Tom Barlow (Kyle Smith)
88'
🟨 Julian Malatini
90+4'
🟨 Tom Barlow
Mauricio Amaro 🟨
90+4'
90+7'
⚽ Kevin Denkey (Ender Jesús Echenique Peña)
Match Statistics ?
56%
Ball Possession
44%
16
Total Shots
13
6
Shots on Goal
4
5
Corner Kicks
4
8
Fouls
14
2
Yellow Cards
3
0
Red Cards
0
7
Offsides
1
0
Goalkeeper Saves
5
Starting Lineups
Atlanta United FC (4-3-3)
L. Hoyos
T. Jacob
E. Mihaj
J. Alonso
E. Báez
G. Galoppo
M. Amaro
T. Muyumba
M. Almirón
B. Embolo
A. Fortune
FC Cincinnati (3-5-2)
E. Louro
K. Smith
M. Robinson
T. Hadebe
D. Douděra
S. Gidi
P. Bucha
O. Nwobodo
T. Malacia
T. Barlow
K. Denkey
Player Ratings ?
Atlanta United FC
M. AlmirónF8.2
J. AlonsoD6.7
A. FortuneF6.6
FC Cincinnati
K. DenkeyF9.0
T. BarlowF8.7
E. EcheniqueF7.2
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Atlanta United FC edge recent form and defence, FC Cincinnati edge attack and head-to-head, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Atlanta United FC stronger
HomeAway
Attack
FC Cincinnati slightly stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Atlanta United FC stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
FC Cincinnati stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
FC Cincinnati have struggled on the road with no wins in their last five away outings, while Atlanta United FC have secured two victories from their last five home fixtures. At home, Atlanta United FC have scored in four of their last five matches but have failed to keep a clean sheet in that same sample. FC Cincinnati face no confirmed absences from their starting line-up, though one player remains doubtful for the match. Atlanta United FC rate stronger on form and defence, while FC Cincinnati rate stronger on head-to-head, with a slight advantage in attack. FC Cincinnati won the most recent meeting 2-0 on 21 February 2026, having won 3 of the last 5 encounters to Atlanta United FC's 1, with 1 ending level; the fixture has averaged 3.2 goals per meeting. The market has remained broadly steady over the 2-day comparison window, with little change in either side's implied win probability. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
4
Atlanta United FC losing run
2
FC Cincinnati points from last 5 matches
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Little change in the market
The betting market's view of this match has barely moved since the earliest comparable snapshot, 2 days before kickoff.
Movement strength: Steady
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Atlanta United FC win
Latest market chance 39.2%
Steady
Market view unchanged
38.8% → 39.2%
+0.4 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 24.4%
Steady
Market view unchanged
24.5% → 24.4%
−0.1 pts
FC Cincinnati win
Latest market chance 36.4%
Steady
Market view unchanged
36.7% → 36.4%
−0.3 pts
9 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 2 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
Atlanta United FCFC Cincinnati
Season Profile
This season
28th
League Position
18th
27
Games Played
26
1.00
Points/Game
1.27
1.19
Goals/Game
2.12
1.67
Conceded/Game
2.46
13.2
Shots/Game
14.3
4.1
Shots on Target
5.6
Home vs Away Context
Atlanta United FC at home (17 matches) vs FC Cincinnati away (17 matches)
1.00
Points/Game
0.94
1.53
Goals/Game
1.65
1.94
Conceded/Game
2.53
29%
Win Rate
18%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Atlanta United FC
Home form
W
W
L
L
D
2W 1D 2L in last 5 at home
1.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.8
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
FC Cincinnati
Away form
D
L
L
D
L
Winless in last 5 away
0.8
Goals scored
per match
per match
3.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Atlanta United FC Wins
1
Draws
1
FC Cincinnati Wins
3
Avg Goals
3.2
FC Cincinnati2 – 0Atlanta United FC
Atlanta United FC4 – 2FC Cincinnati
FC Cincinnati2 – 2Atlanta United FC
FC Cincinnati1 – 0Atlanta United FC
Atlanta United FC1 – 2FC Cincinnati
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Atlanta United FCvs
FC Cincinnati
Recent Scoring Profile
1.50
Goals scored / game
1.50
1.50
Goals conceded / game
2.40
7/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
8/10
7/10
Both Teams Scored
8/10
2/10
Failed to Score
2/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 7 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 67.6%→Latest 67.6%±0.0 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 68.8%→Latest 68.8%±0.0 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?