Atlanta United FC vs Chicago Fire Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Atlanta Stadium
Sun 25 Oct 2026 · 00:30 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
2.68
Draw
3.81
Away Win
2.41
Match Report
Full Time
2 – 3
Match Events ?
Atlanta United FC
Chicago Fire
Tomás Jacob (Miguel Almirón) ⚽
4'
30'
⚽ Anton Saletros
38'
🟨 Djé D'Avilla
51'
⚽ Anzor Mekvabishvili
Lucas Hoyos 🟨
59'
60'
⚽ Philip Zinckernagel (Anton Saletros)
Breel Embolo (Elías Báez) ⚽
67'
Paulo Díaz 🟨
74'
79'
🟨 Anzor Mekvabishvili
81'
🟨 Mbekezeli Mbokazi
84'
🟨 Johan Arath Gomez
Junior Alonso 🟨
84'
Match Statistics ?
39%
Ball Possession
61%
8
Total Shots
12
3
Shots on Goal
4
4
Corner Kicks
5
8
Fouls
14
3
Yellow Cards
4
0
Red Cards
0
5
Offsides
5
1
Goalkeeper Saves
1
Starting Lineups
Atlanta United FC (4-3-3)
L. Hoyos
T. Jacob
P. Díaz
J. Alonso
E. Báez
A. Fortune
M. Amaro
G. Galoppo
A. Miranchuk
B. Embolo
M. Almirón
Chicago Fire (4-3-3)
C. Brady
J. Dean
A. Hanche-Olsen
M. Mbokazi
N. Allen
A. Salétros
T. D'Avilla
M. Haile-Selassie
P. Zinckernagel
R. Lewandowski
J. Bamba
Player Ratings ?
Atlanta United FC
B. EmboloF7.7
M. AlmirónF7.4
M. AmaroM6.9
Chicago Fire
A. SalétrosM8.6
P. ZinckernagelF8.2
A. Hanche-OlsenD6.5
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Atlanta United FC edge defence, Chicago Fire edge recent form, attack and head-to-head, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Chicago Fire slightly stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Chicago Fire slightly stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Atlanta United FC slightly stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Chicago Fire stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Chicago Fire have managed just one win from their last five away outings, while Atlanta United FC remain winless in four of their last five home matches. Atlanta United FC have found the net in four of their last five home matches but have kept just zero clean sheets during that same span. Both sides carry minor injury concerns, with Atlanta United FC listing one player out and another doubtful, while Chicago Fire face similar issues with one outfielder unavailable and two players listed as doubtful. Chicago Fire rate stronger on head-to-head, with a slight advantage in form and attack, while Atlanta United FC hold a slight advantage in defence. Chicago Fire won the most recent meeting 1-0 on 12 April 2026, having won 2 of the last 5 encounters to Atlanta United FC's 1, with 2 ending level; the fixture has averaged 2.2 goals per meeting. Over the 7-day comparison window, Atlanta United FC's implied win probability has fallen by 4.3 percentage points, while Chicago Fire's implied win probability has risen by 4.4 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
4
Atlanta United FC losing run
1
Atlanta United FC points from last 5 matches
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Strong shift towards Chicago Fire
Chicago Fire's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Chicago Fire win as more likely than it did 7 days ago.
Movement strength: Strong
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Atlanta United FC win
Latest market chance 35.9%
Strong drift
Market chance decreased
40.2% → 35.9%
−4.3 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 24.9%
Steady
Market view unchanged
25.0% → 24.9%
−0.1 pts
Chicago Fire win
Latest market chance 39.2%
Strong shortening
Market chance increased
34.8% → 39.2%
+4.4 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Atlanta United FC
Draw
Chicago Fire
4 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 7 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
Atlanta United FCChicago Fire
Season Profile
This season
28th
League Position
8th
30
Games Played
30
1.00
Points/Game
1.60
1.23
Goals/Game
1.73
1.70
Conceded/Game
1.47
13.2
Shots/Game
14.5
4.1
Shots on Target
5.2
Home vs Away Context
Atlanta United FC at home (17 matches) vs Chicago Fire away (17 matches)
1.00
Points/Game
1.53
1.53
Goals/Game
1.82
1.94
Conceded/Game
1.71
29%
Win Rate
41%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Atlanta United FC
Home form
L
L
D
L
L
Winless in last 5 at home
1.2
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.6
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Chicago Fire
Away form
D
D
L
W
L
1W 2D 2L in last 5 away
1.4
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Atlanta United FC Wins
1
Draws
2
Chicago Fire Wins
2
Avg Goals
2.2
Chicago Fire1 – 0Atlanta United FC
Atlanta United FC2 – 2Chicago Fire
Chicago Fire2 – 1Atlanta United FC
Chicago Fire0 – 0Atlanta United FC
Atlanta United FC3 – 0Chicago Fire
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Atlanta United FCvs
Chicago Fire
Recent Scoring Profile
1.40
Goals scored / game
1.50
1.60
Goals conceded / game
1.80
7/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
7/10
6/10
Both Teams Scored
7/10
2/10
Failed to Score
2/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 6 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 65.5%→Latest 66.0%+0.5 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 67.6%→Latest 67.6%±0.0 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
3 of Atlanta United FC's 10 matches and 4 of Chicago Fire's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?