St Etienne vs Nantes Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Stade Geoffroy-Guichard
Sat 24 Oct 2026 · 19:45 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
1.76
Draw
3.76
Away Win
4.67
Match Report
Full Time
1 – 0
Match Events ?
St Etienne
Nantes
45+2'
🟨 Kelvin Amian
Augustine Boakye 🟨
53'
58'
🟨 Fode Doucoure
62'
🟨 Johann Lepenant
88'
🟨 Ryad Hachem
Jakob Breum 🟨
88'
Augustine Boakye (Mahmoud Jaber) ⚽
90'
Joshua Duffus 🟨
90+9'
Match Statistics ?
65%
Ball Possession
35%
11
Total Shots
4
3
Shots on Goal
2
7
Corner Kicks
6
11
Fouls
17
3
Yellow Cards
4
0
Red Cards
0
5
Offsides
2
2
Goalkeeper Saves
2
Starting Lineups
St Etienne (4-2-3-1)
Mamour Ndiaye
João Ferreira
K. Pedro
J. Le Cardinal
B. Old
Á. Csongvai
M. Bernauer
A. Boakye
J. Breum
Z. Davitashvili
I. Cardona
Nantes (5-3-2)
P. Carlgren
F. Doucouré
F. Guilbert
S. Sow
K. Amian
R. Hachem
B. Pierret
I. Sissoko
J. Lepenant
I. Ganago
T. Robinet
Player Ratings ?
St Etienne
A. BoakyeM7.9
K. PedroD7.4
J. Le CardinalD7.3
Nantes
F. GuilbertD6.7
I. SissokoM6.6
M. CafaroM6.5
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
Data favours
St Etienne
St Etienne rate stronger in recent form, attack and defence; Nantes edge head-to-head, giving St Etienne an edge.
Leads 3 of 4 major categories
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
St Etienne stronger
HomeAway
Attack
St Etienne stronger
HomeAway
Defence
St Etienne stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Nantes stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Nantes have recorded just one victory from their last five away outings, while St Etienne remain unbeaten at home in that same sample. St Etienne have found the net in each of their last five home matches and kept three clean sheets during that same period. St Etienne rate stronger on form, attack and defence, while Nantes rate stronger on head-to-head. The most recent meeting, on 19 January 2025, ended level, with 4 of the last 5 encounters drawn overall; the fixture has averaged 2.2 goals per meeting. Over the 5-day comparison window, St Etienne's implied win probability has risen by 1.4 percentage points, while Nantes's implied win probability has fallen by 1.6 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison favours St Etienne.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
5
St Etienne unbeaten run
15
St Etienne points from last 5 matches
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Notable shift away from Nantes
Nantes's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Nantes win as less likely than it did 5 days ago. St Etienne remain the clear market favourite.
Movement strength: Notable
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
St Etienne win
Latest market chance 54.1%
Slight shortening
Market chance increased
52.7% → 54.1%
+1.4 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 25.0%
Steady
Market view unchanged
24.8% → 25.0%
+0.2 pts
Nantes win
Latest market chance 20.9%
Notable drift
Market chance decreased
22.5% → 20.9%
−1.6 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
St Etienne
Draw
Nantes
4 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 5 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
St EtienneNantes
Season Profile
This season
1st
League Position
14th
9
Games Played
9
2.44
Points/Game
0.89
2.44
Goals/Game
1.22
0.89
Conceded/Game
1.78
14.4
Shots/Game
13.2
5.6
Shots on Target
3.7
Home vs Away Context
St Etienne at home (7 matches) vs Nantes away (7 matches)
3.00
Points/Game
1.43
2.43
Goals/Game
1.43
0.29
Conceded/Game
1.14
100%
Win Rate
43%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
St Etienne
Home form
W
W
W
W
W
Won 5 straight at home
1 of these match from last season.
3.4
Goals scored
per match
per match
0.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
3/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Nantes
Away form
D
L
D
L
W
1W 2D 2L in last 5 away
1 of these match from last season.
1.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.8
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
St Etienne Wins
0
Draws
4
Nantes Wins
1
Avg Goals
2.2
St Etienne1 – 1Nantes
Nantes2 – 2St Etienne
Nantes1 – 1St Etienne
St Etienne0 – 1Nantes
St Etienne1 – 1Nantes
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
St Etiennevs
Nantes
Recent Scoring Profile
2.70
Goals scored / game
1.30
0.80
Goals conceded / game
1.80
8/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
6/10
5/10
Both Teams Scored
6/10
0/10
Failed to Score
3/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 7 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 54.6%→Latest 54.6%±0.0 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
The market is more cautious on 3+ goals than both teams' recent records.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 55.8%→Latest 55.4%−0.4 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
An earlier move in the opposite direction has partly reversed.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
1 of St Etienne's 10 matches and 1 of Nantes's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?