Rodez vs Montpellier Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Stade Paul Lignon
Mon 19 Oct 2026 · 19:45 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
3.10
Draw
3.14
Away Win
2.48
Match Report
Full Time
0 – 3
Match Events ?
Rodez
Montpellier
Mathis Saka 🟨
35'
50'
🟨 Yaël Mouanga Boudzoumou
55'
⚽ Nicolas Pays
59'
⚽ Laciné Megnan Pave
76'
⚽ Daryll Benlahlou
Match Statistics ?
40%
Ball Possession
60%
16
Total Shots
16
2
Shots on Goal
8
8
Corner Kicks
4
12
Fouls
10
1
Yellow Cards
1
0
Red Cards
0
1
Offsides
2
4
Goalkeeper Saves
2
Starting Lineups
Rodez (5-3-2)
Q. Braat
S. Luyambula Biwa
L. Quenabio
M. Magnin
R. Lipinski
R. Ponti
M. Saka
J. Mendes
O. Joly
N. Nsingi
M. Touho
Montpellier (4-2-3-1)
S. Ngapandouetnbu
Naoufel El Hannach
J. Laporte
Y. Mouanga
T. Sainte-Luce
F. Tardieu
D. Meddah
N. Pays
N. Vidal-Cartoux
Lacine Megnan-Pave
M. Camara
Player Ratings ?
Rodez
O. JolyM6.7
M. TouhoF6.7
S. Luyambula BiwaD6.6
Montpellier
N. PaysM8.2
J. LaporteD8.0
Lacine Megnan-PaveM8.0
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Rodez edge attack and head-to-head, Montpellier edge recent form and defence, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Montpellier stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Rodez stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Montpellier stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Rodez slightly stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Montpellier have secured two wins and two draws from their last five away fixtures across seasons, while Rodez sit on a mixed record with two victories and one draw in that same span at home. Rodez have found the net in four of their last five matches at home but have failed to keep a clean sheet during that identical sample period. Montpellier rate stronger on form and defence, while Rodez rate stronger on attack, with a slight advantage in head-to-head. Rodez won the most recent meeting 1-0 on 20 February 2026, having won 1 of the last 2 encounters to Montpellier's 1, with 0 ending level; the fixture has averaged 1.5 goals per meeting. Over the 7-day comparison window, Rodez's implied win probability has fallen by 1.8 percentage points, while Montpellier's implied win probability has risen by 0.4 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Notable shift away from Rodez
Rodez's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Rodez win as less likely than it did 7 days ago. Montpellier remain the clear market favourite.
Movement strength: Notable
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Rodez win
Latest market chance 31.6%
Notable drift
Market chance decreased
33.4% → 31.6%
−1.8 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 29.3%
Slight shortening
Market chance increased
27.9% → 29.3%
+1.4 pts
Montpellier win
Latest market chance 39.1%
Steady
Market view unchanged
38.7% → 39.1%
+0.4 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Rodez
Draw
Montpellier
5 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 7 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
RodezMontpellier
Season Profile
This season
17th
League Position
5th
8
Games Played
8
0.88
Points/Game
1.88
1.75
Goals/Game
1.00
2.25
Conceded/Game
0.62
14.4
Shots/Game
13.8
5.1
Shots on Target
5.0
Home vs Away Context
Rodez at home (6 matches) vs Montpellier away (6 matches)
1.17
Points/Game
2.17
1.50
Goals/Game
1.67
1.83
Conceded/Game
0.67
33%
Win Rate
67%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Rodez
Home form
W
W
D
L
L
2W 1D 2L in last 5 at home
1 of these match from last season.
2.0
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.8
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Montpellier
Away form
D
W
W
L
D
2W 2D 1L in last 5 away
1 of these match from last season.
1.0
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Rodez Wins
1
Draws
0
Montpellier Wins
1
Avg Goals
1.5
Rodez1 – 0Montpellier
Montpellier2 – 0Rodez
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Rodezvs
Montpellier
Recent Scoring Profile
1.80
Goals scored / game
1.00
2.00
Goals conceded / game
0.80
7/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
2/10
7/10
Both Teams Scored
5/10
3/10
Failed to Score
1/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 5 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 54.6%→Latest 58.3%+3.7 pts
Strong move towards 3+ goals
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 58.9%→Latest 61.0%+2.1 pts
Notable move towards both teams scoring
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
2 of Rodez's 10 matches and 2 of Montpellier's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?