Red Star vs St Etienne Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Stade de Paris
Sat 17 Oct 2026 · 19:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
3.17
Draw
3.60
Away Win
2.22
Match Report
Full Time
0 – 1
Match Events ?
Red Star
St Etienne
13'
⚽ Irvin Cardona (Jakob Breum)
39'
🟨 João Ferreira
Jovany Ikanga A Ngele 🟨
44'
48'
🟨 Ben Old
Damien Durand 🟨
90+5'
Match Statistics ?
58%
Ball Possession
42%
5
Total Shots
9
1
Shots on Goal
3
4
Corner Kicks
5
16
Fouls
13
2
Yellow Cards
2
0
Red Cards
0
1
Offsides
1
2
Goalkeeper Saves
1
Starting Lineups
Red Star (4-2-3-1)
G. Poussin
D. Durivaux
J. Escartin
E. Zidane
M. Huard
S. Renel
I. Halifa
G. Kyeremeh
K. Cissé
D. Durand
J. Ikanga A Ngele
St Etienne (4-2-3-1)
Mamour Ndiaye
K. Pedro
J. Le Cardinal
S. Nair
B. Old
M. Bernauer
Á. Csongvai
A. Boakye
J. Breum
T. Ballo
I. Cardona
Player Ratings ?
Red Star
D. DurivauxD7.1
J. EscartinD7.0
S. RenelM6.9
St Etienne
I. CardonaF7.8
J. BreumM7.7
S. NairD7.6
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. St Etienne edge attack and head-to-head, recent form and defence are closely matched, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Closely matched
HomeAway
Attack
St Etienne stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Closely matched
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
St Etienne slightly stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
St Etienne have recorded two wins and a draw from their last five away outings, while Red Star sit on two victories and two draws in their corresponding home sample. Red Star have found the net in four of their last five home matches but have also kept two clean sheets during that same period. St Etienne rate stronger on attack, with a slight advantage in head-to-head, while form and defence are closely matched. St Etienne won the most recent meeting 2-0 on 7 March 2026, having won 1 of the last 2 encounters to Red Star's 1, with 0 ending level; the fixture has averaged 2.5 goals per meeting. Over the 5-day comparison window, Red Star's implied win probability has risen by 3.6 percentage points, while St Etienne's implied win probability has fallen by 3.0 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
5
St Etienne unbeaten run
48%
Red Star yellow cards after 75'
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Strong shift towards Red Star
Red Star's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Red Star win as more likely than it did 5 days ago. St Etienne remain the clear market favourite.
Movement strength: Strong
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Red Star win
Latest market chance 30.0%
Strong shortening
Market chance increased
26.4% → 30.0%
+3.6 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 26.7%
Steady
Market view unchanged
27.4% → 26.7%
−0.7 pts
St Etienne win
Latest market chance 43.3%
Strong drift
Market chance decreased
46.3% → 43.3%
−3.0 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Red Star
Draw
St Etienne
4 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 5 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
Red StarSt Etienne
Season Profile
This season
3rd
League Position
1st
8
Games Played
8
2.13
Points/Game
2.38
1.50
Goals/Game
2.62
1.12
Conceded/Game
1.00
13.4
Shots/Game
14.4
4.5
Shots on Target
5.6
Home vs Away Context
Red Star at home (5 matches) vs St Etienne away (6 matches)
0.80
Points/Game
1.67
0.60
Goals/Game
1.67
1.80
Conceded/Game
1.50
20%
Win Rate
50%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Red Star
Home form
W
D
D
L
W
2W 2D 1L in last 5 at home
2 of these matches from last season.
1.2
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
St Etienne
Away form
L
W
W
L
D
2W 1D 2L in last 5 away
1 of these match from last season.
2.0
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.6
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Red Star Wins
1
Draws
0
St Etienne Wins
1
Avg Goals
2.5
St Etienne2 – 0Red Star
Red Star2 – 1St Etienne
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Red Starvs
St Etienne
Recent Scoring Profile
1.60
Goals scored / game
2.70
1.10
Goals conceded / game
1.00
5/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
9/10
7/10
Both Teams Scored
6/10
1/10
Failed to Score
0/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 5 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 50.3%→Latest 52.1%+1.8 pts
Notable move towards 3+ goals
An earlier move in the opposite direction has partly reversed.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 54.2%→Latest 56.8%+2.6 pts
Notable move towards both teams scoring
Most of this movement happened in the most recent snapshot, not spread evenly.
Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.
2 of Red Star's 10 matches and 2 of St Etienne's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?