Nancy vs Guingamp Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Stade Marcel-Picot
Fri 09 Oct 2026 · 19:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
1.88
Draw
3.86
Away Win
3.98
Match Report
Full Time
1 – 0
Match Events ?
Nancy
Guingamp
Walid Bouabdeli 🟨
45+2'
55'
🟨 Jeovanni Dianganga
Kouroufia Kebe 🟨
55'
56'
🟨 Amine Hemia
Kouroufia Kebe 🟥
71'
74'
🟨 Tanguy Ahile
77'
🟨 Albin Demouchy
90+4'
🟥 Albin Demouchy
Zakaria Fdaouch ⚽ (P)
90+6'
Match Statistics ?
54%
Ball Possession
46%
17
Total Shots
8
7
Shots on Goal
2
4
Corner Kicks
4
22
Fouls
17
1
Yellow Cards
3
1
Red Cards
1
2
Offsides
1
2
Goalkeeper Saves
6
Starting Lineups
Nancy (4-2-3-1)
E. Basilio
N. Fernandez-Veliz
Y. Nahounou
E. Mendy
E. Tacafred
K. Kebe
W. Bouabdelli
I. Housni
N. Kandil
El Hadari
P. Meïssa Ba
Guingamp (4-4-2)
Adrián Ortolá
E. Koffi
A. Demouchy
J. Dianganga
T. Ollila
S. Ben Brahim
D. Louiserre
T. Ahile
F. Da Silva
A. Hemia
B. Bokangu
Player Ratings ?
Nancy
E. MendyD7.6
E. TacafredD7.3
Y. NahounouD7.2
Guingamp
Adrián OrtoláG8.1
D. LouiserreM7.0
T. OllilaD6.9
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Nancy edge recent form and defence, Guingamp edge head-to-head, attack is closely matched, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Nancy stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Closely matched
HomeAway
Defence
Nancy stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Guingamp stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Guingamp have found it difficult on the road recently, recording just a solitary draw and four defeats in their last five away outings, while Nancy have been more competitive at home with two wins from three losses in that same span. The hosts have found the net in four of their last five home matches but have only managed to keep a clean sheet once during that period. Nancy rate stronger on form and defence, while Guingamp rate stronger on head-to-head, while attack is closely matched. Guingamp won the most recent meeting 3-0 on 19 January 2026, having won 2 of the last 5 encounters to Nancy's 1, with 2 ending level; the fixture has averaged 2.8 goals per meeting. Over the 6-day comparison window, Nancy's implied win probability has risen by 2.7 percentage points, while Guingamp's implied win probability has fallen by 2.2 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Strong shift towards Nancy
Nancy's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Nancy win as more likely than it did 6 days ago.
Movement strength: Strong
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Nancy win
Latest market chance 49.2%
Strong shortening
Market chance increased
42.0% → 49.2%
+7.2 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 26.1%
Slight drift
Market chance decreased
27.0% → 26.1%
−0.9 pts
Guingamp win
Latest market chance 24.7%
Strong drift
Market chance decreased
30.9% → 24.7%
−6.2 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Nancy
Draw
Guingamp
7 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 6 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
NancyGuingamp
Season Profile
This season
6th
League Position
12th
7
Games Played
7
1.43
Points/Game
1.14
1.14
Goals/Game
1.43
1.00
Conceded/Game
1.71
13.9
Shots/Game
13.7
4.2
Shots on Target
5.2
Home vs Away Context
Nancy at home (6 matches) vs Guingamp away (6 matches)
2.00
Points/Game
0.67
1.00
Goals/Game
0.83
0.50
Conceded/Game
1.50
67%
Win Rate
17%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Nancy
Home form
L
W
L
W
L
Lost 3 of last 5 at home
2 of these matches from last season.
1.4
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Guingamp
Away form
L
L
L
L
D
Winless in last 5 away
2 of these matches from last season.
1.0
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.8
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Nancy Wins
1
Draws
2
Guingamp Wins
2
Avg Goals
2.8
Nancy0 – 3Guingamp
Guingamp2 – 2Nancy
Guingamp3 – 1Nancy
Nancy2 – 1Guingamp
Guingamp0 – 0Nancy
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Nancyvs
Guingamp
Recent Scoring Profile
1.50
Goals scored / game
1.20
1.10
Goals conceded / game
1.70
4/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
6/10
5/10
Both Teams Scored
6/10
3/10
Failed to Score
3/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 53.5%→Latest 52.4%−1.1 pts
Slight move away from 3+ goals
An earlier move in the opposite direction has partly reversed.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 57.8%→Latest 55.3%−2.5 pts
Notable move away from both teams scoring
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
3 of Nancy's 10 matches and 3 of Guingamp's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?