Montpellier vs Red Star Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis

Archived Result — stats and prediction shown as they stood before kickoff
Stade de la Mosson
Mon 26 Oct 2026 · 19:45 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
2.35
Draw
3.41
Away Win
3.08
Match Report
Full Time
2 – 1
Match Events ?
Montpellier
Red Star
Noah Vidal 🟨
17'
Mamadou Camara 🟨
30'
42'
🟨 Dylan Durivaux
Yanis Zouaoui 🟨
42'
Laciné Megnan-Pavé (Nicolas Pays) ⚽
47'
51'
⚽ Saîf-Eddine Khaoui (Matthieu Huard)
66'
🟨 Matthieu Huard
70'
🟥 Dylan Durivaux
Mamadou Camara (Nordan Mukiele) ⚽
88'
Match Statistics ?
53%
Ball Possession
47%
6
Total Shots
14
3
Shots on Goal
5
3
Corner Kicks
2
19
Fouls
21
3
Yellow Cards
1
0
Red Cards
1
1
Offsides
0
4
Goalkeeper Saves
1
Starting Lineups
Montpellier (4-2-3-1)
S. Ngapandouetnbu
Naoufel El Hannach
J. Laporte
Y. Mouanga
Y. Zouaoui
T. Chennahi
F. Tardieu
N. Pays
N. Vidal-Cartoux
Lacine Megnan-Pave
M. Camara
Red Star (4-2-3-1)
G. Poussin
T. Magnin
D. Durivaux
J. Escartin
M. Huard
I. Halifa
B. Danger
G. Kyeremeh
S. Khaoui
D. Durand
J. Ikanga A Ngele
Player Ratings ?
Montpellier
M. CamaraF7.7
Lacine Megnan-PaveM7.5
S. NgapandouetnbuG7.2
Red Star
S. KhaouiM6.9
K. CisséF6.8
J. EscartinD6.7
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Montpellier edge defence, Red Star edge attack, recent form and head-to-head are closely matched, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Closely matched
HomeAway
Attack
Red Star slightly stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Montpellier stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Closely matched
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Red Star have enjoyed a solid away run with four wins and a draw from their last five outings, while Montpellier have secured just two victories and two draws in the same number of home fixtures. Montpellier have scored in four of their last five home matches yet have also kept three clean sheets within that same recent sample. Red Star hold a slight advantage in attack, while Montpellier rate stronger on defence, while form and head-to-head are closely matched. The most recent meeting, on 9 May 2026, ended level, with 2 of the last 2 encounters drawn overall; the fixture has averaged 2.0 goals per meeting. Over the 6-day comparison window, Montpellier's implied win probability has fallen by 2.6 percentage points, while Red Star's implied win probability has risen by 2.7 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
4
Red Star unbeaten run
48%
Red Star yellow cards after 75'
13
Red Star points from last 5 matches
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Market View
?
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Slight shift away from Montpellier
Montpellier's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Montpellier win as less likely than it did 6 days ago. This is a modest move, not a major change in market opinion.
Movement strength: Slight
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Montpellier win
Latest market chance 40.6%
Slight drift
Market chance decreased
41.4% → 40.6%
−0.8 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 27.7%
Steady
Market view unchanged
27.7% → 27.7%
±0.0 pts
Red Star win
Latest market chance 31.7%
Slight shortening
Market chance increased
30.9% → 31.7%
+0.8 pts
Movement over time
Change vs first comparable snapshot
7 snapshots
+5+2.50−2.5Oct 20Oct 22Oct 23Oct 24Oct 26
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Montpellier
Draw
Red Star
7 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 6 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
Montpellier
Red Star
Season Profile
This season
3rd
League Position
6th
9
Games Played
9
2.00
Points/Game
1.89
1.22
Goals/Game
1.33
0.56
Conceded/Game
1.11
13.8
Shots/Game
13.4
5.0
Shots on Target
4.5
Home vs Away Context
Montpellier at home (7 matches) vs Red Star away (8 matches)
2.00
Points/Game
1.62
1.43
Goals/Game
1.50
0.86
Conceded/Game
1.25
57%
Win Rate
50%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Montpellier
Home form
D
D
W
W
W
Won 3 straight at home
1.2
Goals scored
per match
0.4
Goals conceded
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
3/5
Clean
sheets
VS
Red Star
Away form
D
W
W
W
L
Won 3 of last 5 away
2.0
Goals scored
per match
1.4
Goals conceded
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Montpellier Wins
1
Draws
2
Red Star Wins
0
Avg Goals
2.3
2026-10-242026-2027
Montpellier2 – 1Red Star
2026-05-092025-2026
Red Star1 – 1Montpellier
2025-08-092025-2026
Montpellier1 – 1Red Star
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Montpellier
vs
Red Star
Recent Scoring Profile
1.30
Goals scored / game
1.30
0.60
Goals conceded / game
1.20
3/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
5/10
4/10
Both Teams Scored
6/10
1/10
Failed to Score
2/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
75.0%
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
51.2%
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
30.5%
BTTSBoth teams score
57.0%
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 48.4%→Latest 52.4%+4.0 pts
Strong move towards 3+ goals
An earlier move in the opposite direction has partly reversed.
Oct 20Oct 22Oct 23Oct 24Oct 26
4 common bookmakers · first comparable 6 days before kickoff
Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 52.7%→Latest 56.6%+3.9 pts
Strong move towards both teams scoring
An earlier move in the opposite direction has partly reversed.
Oct 20Oct 22Oct 23Oct 24Oct 26
5 common bookmakers · first comparable 6 days before kickoff
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?
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