Montpellier vs Metz Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Stade de la Mosson
Fri 06 Nov 2026 · 19:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
2.04
Draw
3.35
Away Win
3.95
Match Report
Full Time
2 – 3
Match Events ?
Montpellier
Metz
21'
🟨 Jessy Deminguet
26'
⚽ Bouna Sarr
Daylam Meddah 🟨
31'
43'
⚽ (OG) Yaël Mouanga Boudzoumou
Daylam Meddah (Naoufel El Hannach) ⚽
50'
51'
⚽ Jessy Deminguet (Pape Moussa Fall)
60'
🟨 Idris Mohamed
Mamadou Camara ⚽
90'
Match Statistics ?
64%
Ball Possession
36%
23
Total Shots
6
5
Shots on Goal
2
9
Corner Kicks
4
16
Fouls
19
1
Yellow Cards
2
0
Red Cards
0
3
Offsides
0
0
Goalkeeper Saves
3
Starting Lineups
Montpellier (4-2-3-1)
S. Ngapandouetnbu
Naoufel El Hannach
J. Laporte
Y. Mouanga
Y. Zouaoui
F. Tardieu
D. Meddah
N. Pays
Daryll Benlahlou
Lacine Megnan-Pave
M. Camara
Metz (5-4-1)
J. Fischer
B. Sarr
M. Colin
C. Devenish
U. Mboula
F. Miguel
J. Deminguet
I. Mohamed
T. Savanier
J. Pandore
P. Fall
Player Ratings ?
Montpellier
D. MeddahM7.7
M. CamaraF7.4
Naoufel El HannachD7.0
Metz
B. SarrD7.4
J. DeminguetM6.9
U. MboulaD6.9
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
Data favours
Montpellier
Montpellier rate stronger across every major category. They lead recent form, attack, defence and head-to-head, giving Montpellier an edge.
Leads 4 of 4 major categories
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Montpellier stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Montpellier slightly stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Montpellier stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Montpellier stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Metz have recorded three draws and two defeats in their last five away outings, while Montpellier boast an encouraging unbeaten run of four wins and a single draw from their last five home matches. Montpellier have scored in four of their last five home matches but have kept three clean sheets during the same period. Montpellier rate stronger on form, defence and head-to-head, with a slight advantage in attack. Montpellier won the most recent meeting 3-0 on 18 February 2024, having won 3 of the last 5 encounters to Metz's 0, with 2 ending level; the fixture has averaged 2.8 goals per meeting. Over the 5-day comparison window, Montpellier's implied win probability has risen by 0.9 percentage points, while Metz's implied win probability has risen by 0.2 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison favours Montpellier.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Slight shift away from the draw
the draw's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a draw as less likely than it did 5 days ago. This is a modest move, not a major change in market opinion. Montpellier remain the clear market favourite.
Movement strength: Slight
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Montpellier win
Latest market chance 46.8%
Slight shortening
Market chance increased
45.9% → 46.8%
+0.9 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 28.0%
Slight drift
Market chance decreased
29.1% → 28.0%
−1.1 pts
Metz win
Latest market chance 25.2%
Steady
Market view unchanged
25.0% → 25.2%
+0.2 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Montpellier
Draw
Metz
6 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 5 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
MontpellierMetz
Season Profile
This season
2nd
League Position
10th
11
Games Played
11
2.18
Points/Game
1.27
1.45
Goals/Game
1.55
0.55
Conceded/Game
1.55
13.8
Shots/Game
13.6
5.0
Shots on Target
4.4
Home vs Away Context
Montpellier at home (7 matches) vs Metz away (6 matches)
2.00
Points/Game
1.00
1.43
Goals/Game
1.17
0.86
Conceded/Game
1.50
57%
Win Rate
17%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Montpellier
Home form
D
W
W
W
W
Won 4 straight at home
1.4
Goals scored
per match
per match
0.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
3/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Metz
Away form
D
D
L
L
D
Winless in last 5 away
0.8
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Montpellier Wins
3
Draws
2
Metz Wins
0
Avg Goals
2.8
Montpellier3 – 0Metz
Metz0 – 1Montpellier
Montpellier2 – 2Metz
Metz1 – 3Montpellier
Metz1 – 1Montpellier
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Montpelliervs
Metz
Recent Scoring Profile
1.60
Goals scored / game
1.50
0.60
Goals conceded / game
1.60
5/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
5/10
4/10
Both Teams Scored
8/10
1/10
Failed to Score
2/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 55.6%→Latest 56.2%+0.6 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
The market is pricing a higher chance of 3+ goals than either team's recent rate.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 60.2%→Latest 59.4%−0.8 pts
Slight move away from both teams scoring
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?