Metz vs Pau FC Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Stade Saint-Symphorien
Fri 30 Oct 2026 · 19:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
2.12
Draw
3.71
Away Win
3.33
Match Report
Full Time
1 – 3
Match Events ?
Metz
Pau FC
11'
⚽ Cheikh Fall (Jessy Benet)
18'
• Jessy Benet
Cristian Castro 🟨
45+3'
58'
🟨 Axel Bamba
64'
⚽ Cheikh Fall (Babacar Leye)
68'
⚽ Hacene Benali
75'
🟨 Lorenzo Rajot
Teji Savanier ⚽ (P)
75'
Teji Savanier 🟨
85'
Match Statistics ?
69%
Ball Possession
31%
18
Total Shots
9
5
Shots on Goal
5
8
Corner Kicks
4
12
Fouls
9
2
Yellow Cards
2
0
Red Cards
0
2
Offsides
2
2
Goalkeeper Saves
4
Starting Lineups
Metz (4-1-4-1)
J. Fischer
B. Sarr
C. Devenish
J. Ruiz
U. Mboula
I. Mohamed
Abdourahmane Mbodj
J. Deminguet
T. Savanier
B. Song
N. Mbala
Pau FC (5-3-2)
B. Maubleu
M. Tourraine
G. Paquiez
A. Briançon
A. Bamba
A. Abdallah
C. Fall
J. Benet
L. Rajot
H. Benali
J. Sebas
Player Ratings ?
Metz
T. SavanierM7.8
J. DeminguetM7.0
A. Agne BaF6.9
Pau FC
C. FallM8.7
H. BenaliF8.1
B. LeyeF7.3
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Metz edge attack, Pau FC edge recent form, defence and head-to-head, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Pau FC stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Metz stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Pau FC stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Pau FC stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Metz have enjoyed a solid run at home with three wins and two draws from their last five outings, while Pau FC have recorded two victories alongside one draw and two defeats in their away fixtures over the same span. Metz have scored in all five of their recent home matches but have failed to keep a single clean sheet during that period. Pau FC rate stronger on form, defence and head-to-head, while Metz rate stronger on attack. Pau FC won the most recent meeting 2-1 on 26 April 2025, having won 1 of the last 4 encounters to Metz's 1, with 2 ending level; the fixture has averaged 1.5 goals per meeting. Over the 5-day comparison window, Metz's implied win probability has fallen by 1.2 percentage points, while Pau FC's implied win probability has risen by 2.2 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Notable shift towards Pau FC
Pau FC's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Pau FC win as more likely than it did 5 days ago. Metz remain the clear market favourite.
Movement strength: Notable
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Metz win
Latest market chance 45.3%
Slight drift
Market chance decreased
46.5% → 45.3%
−1.2 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 26.0%
Slight drift
Market chance decreased
26.9% → 26.0%
−0.9 pts
Pau FC win
Latest market chance 28.7%
Notable shortening
Market chance increased
26.5% → 28.7%
+2.2 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Metz
Draw
Pau FC
6 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 5 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
MetzPau FC
Season Profile
This season
8th
League Position
5th
10
Games Played
10
1.40
Points/Game
1.70
1.60
Goals/Game
1.30
1.40
Conceded/Game
1.00
13.6
Shots/Game
13.7
4.4
Shots on Target
4.3
Home vs Away Context
Metz at home (6 matches) vs Pau FC away (5 matches)
1.83
Points/Game
2.00
2.17
Goals/Game
1.60
1.67
Conceded/Game
1.00
50%
Win Rate
60%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Metz
Home form
W
D
W
D
W
Unbeaten in last 5 at home
2.4
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Pau FC
Away form
L
W
D
L
W
2W 1D 2L in last 5 away
1 of these match from last season.
1.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.8
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Metz Wins
1
Draws
2
Pau FC Wins
1
Avg Goals
1.5
Pau FC2 – 1Metz
Metz0 – 0Pau FC
Pau FC1 – 1Metz
Metz1 – 0Pau FC
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Metzvs
Pau FC
Recent Scoring Profile
1.60
Goals scored / game
1.30
1.40
Goals conceded / game
1.00
5/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
4/10
8/10
Both Teams Scored
5/10
2/10
Failed to Score
3/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 52.6%→Latest 53.9%+1.3 pts
Slight move towards 3+ goals
Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 56.3%→Latest 57.4%+1.1 pts
Slight move towards both teams scoring
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?