Guingamp vs Pau FC Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Stade de Roudourou
Fri 16 Oct 2026 · 19:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
2.26
Draw
3.72
Away Win
3.01
Match Report
Full Time
1 – 2
Match Events ?
Guingamp
Pau FC
6'
⚽ Cheikh Fall (Lorenzo Rajot)
13'
🟨 Anthony Briançon
25'
🟨 Gaëtan Paquiez
33'
⚽ Bilal Brahimi (Anthony Briançon)
66'
🟨 Jeremy Sebas
Nathan Fondja 🟨
74'
Teddy Andami Averlant ⚽
75'
Jeovanni Dianganga 🟨
83'
Match Statistics ?
64%
Ball Possession
36%
19
Total Shots
8
4
Shots on Goal
3
5
Corner Kicks
2
14
Fouls
19
2
Yellow Cards
3
0
Red Cards
0
1
Goalkeeper Saves
3
Starting Lineups
Guingamp (4-4-2)
Adrián Ortolá
E. Koffi
J. Dianganga
N. Fondja
T. Ollila
T. Averlant
T. Ducrocq
T. Ahile
S. Ben Brahim
A. Hemia
S. Kielt
Pau FC (5-3-2)
B. Maubleu
T. Pouilly
G. Paquiez
A. Briançon
A. Bamba
M. Tourraine
B. Brahimi
L. Rajot
C. Fall
B. Leye
H. Benali
Player Ratings ?
Guingamp
T. AverlantM7.7
D. LouiserreM6.8
T. AhileM6.8
Pau FC
C. FallM8.2
B. BrahimiM7.5
L. RajotM7.3
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Pau FC edge recent form and head-to-head, attack and defence are closely matched, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Pau FC stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Closely matched
HomeAway
Defence
Closely matched
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Pau FC stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Pau FC arrive at this Ligue 2 fixture with an away record of just one win and a single draw from their last five outings, while Guingamp have secured two victories in the same span at home. Guingamp have scored in four of their last five home matches but have managed only one clean sheet during that identical period. Pau FC rate stronger on form and head-to-head, while attack and defence are closely matched. Pau FC won the most recent meeting 2-1 on 17 April 2026, having won 2 of the last 5 encounters to Guingamp's 2, with 1 ending level; the fixture has averaged 3.0 goals per meeting. The market has remained broadly steady over the 5-day comparison window, with little change in either side's implied win probability. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Little change in the market
The betting market's view of this match has barely moved since the earliest comparable snapshot, 5 days before kickoff.
Movement strength: Steady
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Guingamp win
Latest market chance 45.1%
Steady
Market view unchanged
45.3% → 45.1%
−0.2 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 26.6%
Steady
Market view unchanged
26.4% → 26.6%
+0.2 pts
Pau FC win
Latest market chance 28.3%
Steady
Market view unchanged
28.3% → 28.3%
±0.0 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Guingamp
Draw
Pau FC
6 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 5 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
GuingampPau FC
Season Profile
This season
12th
League Position
8th
8
Games Played
8
1.00
Points/Game
1.38
1.25
Goals/Game
1.12
1.62
Conceded/Game
1.00
13.7
Shots/Game
13.7
5.2
Shots on Target
4.3
Home vs Away Context
Guingamp at home (6 matches) vs Pau FC away (5 matches)
1.67
Points/Game
2.00
1.83
Goals/Game
1.60
1.50
Conceded/Game
1.00
50%
Win Rate
60%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Guingamp
Home form
L
W
D
W
L
2W 1D 2L in last 5 at home
1 of these match from last season.
1.4
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.6
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Pau FC
Away form
L
L
W
D
L
Lost 3 of last 5 away
2 of these matches from last season.
1.4
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.6
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Guingamp Wins
2
Draws
1
Pau FC Wins
2
Avg Goals
3.0
Pau FC2 – 1Guingamp
Guingamp2 – 2Pau FC
Pau FC1 – 3Guingamp
Guingamp0 – 1Pau FC
Pau FC1 – 2Guingamp
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Guingampvs
Pau FC
Recent Scoring Profile
1.00
Goals scored / game
1.30
1.50
Goals conceded / game
1.60
5/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
4/10
5/10
Both Teams Scored
5/10
4/10
Failed to Score
3/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 51.8%→Latest 51.6%−0.2 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 55.7%→Latest 55.7%±0.0 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
The market is pricing a higher chance of both teams scoring than either team's recent rate.
2 of Guingamp's 10 matches and 2 of Pau FC's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?