Dijon vs Metz Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis

Archived Result — stats and prediction shown as they stood before kickoff
Stade Gaston-Gérard
Mon 12 Oct 2026 · 19:45 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
2.95
Draw
3.56
Away Win
2.39
Match Report
Full Time
4 – 2
Match Events ?
Dijon
Metz
H. Vargas Ríos (Paul Bellon) ⚽
19'
23'
🟨 Jean Ruiz
Ange Lago ⚽
24'
Júlio Tavares (Paul Bellon) ⚽
32'
44'
⚽ Pape Moussa Fall (Jessy Deminguet)
62'
🟨 Florian Miguel
Quentin Bernard ⚽
69'
72'
🟨 Cristian Castro
88'
⚽ Pape Moussa Fall (Bryan Rigobert Song Bahanag)
Match Statistics ?
40%
Ball Possession
60%
17
Total Shots
13
7
Shots on Goal
4
3
Corner Kicks
3
17
Fouls
17
0
Yellow Cards
3
0
Red Cards
0
2
Offsides
5
2
Goalkeeper Saves
3
Starting Lineups
Dijon (4-3-1-2)
P. Delecroix
B. Hamada
L. Lacroix
Q. Bernard
Boubacar Diallo
P. Bellon
J. Marié
H. Vargas-Ríos
A. Lembezat
Júlio Tavares
A. Lago
Metz (3-5-2)
J. Fischer
M. Colin
C. Devenish
J. Ruiz
B. Sarr
A. Touré
B. Munongo
J. Deminguet
F. Miguel
G. Abuashvili
P. Fall
Player Ratings ?
Dijon
Júlio TavaresF8.2
P. BellonM7.9
A. LagoF7.8
Metz
P. FallF8.8
J. DeminguetM7.7
Ibou SanéF6.9
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Dijon edge head-to-head, recent form, attack and defence are closely matched, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Closely matched
HomeAway
Attack
Closely matched
HomeAway
Defence
Closely matched
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Dijon slightly stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Metz have secured just one victory from their last five away fixtures, while Dijon have managed two wins in that same span at home. Dijon have found the net in four of their last five home matches but have only kept one clean sheet during that identical period. Dijon hold a slight advantage in head-to-head, while form, attack and defence are closely matched. The most recent meeting, on 18 February 2023, ended level, with 3 of the last 5 encounters drawn overall; the fixture has averaged 3.0 goals per meeting. The market has remained broadly steady over the 9-day comparison window, with little change in either side's implied win probability. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
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Market View
?
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Little change in the market
The betting market's view of this match has barely moved since the earliest comparable snapshot, 9 days before kickoff.
Movement strength: Steady
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Dijon win
Latest market chance 33.8%
Steady
Market view unchanged
34.2% → 33.8%
−0.4 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 27.4%
Steady
Market view unchanged
27.0% → 27.4%
+0.4 pts
Metz win
Latest market chance 38.8%
Steady
Market view unchanged
38.7% → 38.8%
+0.1 pts
Movement over time
Change vs first comparable snapshot
10 snapshots
+1.5+0.750−0.75Oct 3Oct 5Oct 7Oct 10Oct 12
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Dijon
Draw
Metz
7 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 9 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
Dijon
Metz
Season Profile
This season
10th
League Position
9th
7
Games Played
7
1.29
Points/Game
1.43
1.43
Goals/Game
1.43
1.43
Conceded/Game
1.00
13.9
Shots/Game
13.6
5.2
Shots on Target
4.4
Home vs Away Context
Dijon at home (6 matches) vs Metz away (6 matches)
1.50
Points/Game
1.00
1.83
Goals/Game
1.17
1.67
Conceded/Game
1.50
50%
Win Rate
17%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Dijon
Home form
W
D
L
L
W
2W 1D 2L in last 5 at home
2 of these matches from last season.
1.8
Goals scored
per match
1.4
Goals conceded
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
VS
Metz
Away form
L
W
D
D
L
1W 2D 2L in last 5 away
2 of these matches from last season.
1.0
Goals scored
per match
1.2
Goals conceded
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Dijon Wins
1
Draws
3
Metz Wins
1
Avg Goals
3.0
2023-02-182022-2023
Dijon0 – 0Metz
2022-08-272022-2023
Metz1 – 2Dijon
2021-05-022020-2021
Dijon1 – 5Metz
2020-11-082020-2021
Metz1 – 1Dijon
2019-12-212019-2020
Dijon2 – 2Metz
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Dijon
vs
Metz
Recent Scoring Profile
1.30
Goals scored / game
1.70
1.30
Goals conceded / game
1.40
4/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
6/10
8/10
Both Teams Scored
8/10
2/10
Failed to Score
2/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
77.4%
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
54.9%
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
34.0%
BTTSBoth teams score
59.0%
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 32 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 55.0%→Latest 55.0%±0.0 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
6 common bookmakers · first comparable 9 days before kickoff
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 59.0%→Latest 59.0%±0.0 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
4 common bookmakers · first comparable 9 days before kickoff
The market is more cautious on both teams scoring than both teams' recent records.
3 of Dijon's 10 matches and 3 of Metz's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
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