Troyes vs Marseille Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Stade de l'Aube
Sun 11 Oct 2026 · 19:45 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
3.83
Draw
3.82
Away Win
1.95
Match Report
Full Time
0 – 2
Match Events ?
Troyes
Marseille
Lucas Maronnier 🟨
22'
45'
🟨 Angel Gomes
50'
⚽ Amine Harit (Emerson Palmieri)
Dermane Karim 🟨
58'
Antoine Mille 🟨
88'
Patrick Beach 🟨
90+6'
90+8'
⚽ (P) Himad Abdelli
Match Statistics ?
37%
Ball Possession
63%
15
Total Shots
5
3
Shots on Goal
2
6
Corner Kicks
3
14
Fouls
15
4
Yellow Cards
1
0
Red Cards
0
2
Offsides
2
0
Goalkeeper Saves
3
Starting Lineups
Troyes (4-2-3-1)
P. Beach
L. Maronnier
A. Monfray
M. Diaz
P. Gozzi
M. Diop
D. Karim
A. Mille
I. Gomis
K. Diawara
J. Le Douaron
Marseille (4-2-3-1)
J. de Lange
K. Bezahaf
C. Egan-Riley
N. Aguerd
Emerson
H. Abdelli
Nouhoum Kamissoko
A. Harit
A. Gomes
Igor Paixão
A. Gouiri
Player Ratings ?
Troyes
A. MonfrayD7.1
L. MaronnierD6.9
J. Le DouaronF6.7
Marseille
A. HaritM8.0
EmersonD7.8
H. AbdelliM7.7
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
Data favours
Marseille
Marseille rate stronger across every major category. They lead recent form, attack, defence and head-to-head, giving Marseille a slight edge.
Leads 4 of 4 major categories
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Marseille stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Marseille stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Marseille stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Marseille stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Marseille head to the match with just a solitary away victory in their last five outings, while Troyes have managed only two defeats across their most recent home fixtures. At this venue, Troyes have found the net in four of their last five matches but have managed just one clean sheet during that same period. Troyes face a significant absence list with four players unavailable, whereas Marseille will be without two others alongside one player listed as doubtful. Marseille rate stronger on form, attack, defence and head-to-head. Marseille won the most recent meeting 3-1 on 16 April 2023, having won 4 of the last 5 encounters to Troyes's 0, with 1 ending level; the fixture has averaged 2.8 goals per meeting. The market has remained broadly steady over the 14-day comparison window, with little change in either side's implied win probability. The overall statistical comparison gives Marseille a slight edge.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
62%
Marseille yellow cards after 75'
3
Troyes points from last 5 matches
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Little change in the market
The betting market's view of this match has barely moved since the earliest comparable snapshot, 14 days before kickoff.
Movement strength: Steady
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Troyes win
Latest market chance 25.8%
Steady
Market view unchanged
26.2% → 25.8%
−0.4 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 24.9%
Steady
Market view unchanged
25.0% → 24.9%
−0.1 pts
Marseille win
Latest market chance 49.3%
Steady
Market view unchanged
48.8% → 49.3%
+0.5 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Troyes
Draw
Marseille
6 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 14 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
TroyesMarseille
Season Profile
This season
16th
League Position
17th
5
Games Played
5
0.80
Points/Game
0.60
0.80
Goals/Game
1.40
2.20
Conceded/Game
1.60
13.1
Shots/Game
13.2
3.3
Shots on Target
4.7
Home vs Away Context
Troyes at home (5 matches) vs Marseille away (5 matches)
0.80
Points/Game
1.80
1.00
Goals/Game
1.80
2.20
Conceded/Game
1.20
20%
Win Rate
60%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Troyes
Home form
L
D
D
D
L
Winless in last 5 at home
3 of these matches from last season.
1.0
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.2
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Marseille
Away form
L
L
W
L
L
Lost 4 of last 5 away
3 of these matches from last season.
0.2
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.6
Goals conceded
per match
per match
1/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Troyes Wins
0
Draws
1
Marseille Wins
4
Avg Goals
2.8
Marseille3 – 1Troyes
Troyes0 – 2Marseille
Troyes1 – 1Marseille
Marseille1 – 0Troyes
Troyes2 – 3Marseille
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Troyesvs
Marseille
Recent Scoring Profile
0.80
Goals scored / game
1.20
2.20
Goals conceded / game
1.50
5/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
5/10
6/10
Both Teams Scored
4/10
4/10
Failed to Score
4/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 7 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 59.3%→Latest 60.0%+0.7 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
The market is pricing a higher chance of 3+ goals than either team's recent rate.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 60.4%→Latest 61.1%+0.7 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Most of this movement happened in the most recent snapshot, not spread evenly.
Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.
5 of Troyes's 10 matches and 5 of Marseille's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?