Toulouse vs Troyes Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Stadium Municipal
Sun 25 Oct 2026 · 16:15 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
1.52
Draw
4.58
Away Win
6.14
Match Report
Full Time
0 – 0
Match Events ?
Toulouse
Troyes
Rafik Messali 🟨
25'
Aron Dønnum 🟨
25'
36'
🟨 Junior Diaz
Cristian Casseres 🟨
39'
40'
🟨 Timothee Nkada
Niko Sigur 🟨
83'
Jens Berthel Askou 🟨
88'
Alexis Vossah 🟨
89'
Mark McKenzie 🟨
90+3'
Match Statistics ?
63%
Ball Possession
37%
7
Total Shots
8
3
Shots on Goal
0
4
Corner Kicks
2
19
Fouls
14
6
Yellow Cards
2
0
Red Cards
0
1
Offsides
0
0
Goalkeeper Saves
3
Starting Lineups
Toulouse (4-4-2)
G. Restes
R. Messali
M. McKenzie
R. Nicolaisen
C. Tapé
A. Dønnum
C. Cásseres
N. Sigur
T. Jørgensen
J. Russell-Rowe
C. Tengstedt
Troyes (4-3-3)
H. Konaté
L. Maronnier
A. Monfray
M. Diaz
P. Gozzi
A. Mille
D. Karim
M. Diop
M. Ifnaoui
R. Ripart
T. Nkada
Player Ratings ?
Toulouse
R. NicolaisenD7.1
T. JørgensenM6.9
C. CásseresM6.8
Troyes
A. MonfrayD7.4
L. MaronnierD7.0
A. MilleM6.9
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
Data favours
Toulouse
Toulouse rate stronger across every major category. They lead recent form, attack, defence and head-to-head, giving Toulouse a strong edge.
Leads 4 of 4 major categories
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Toulouse stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Toulouse stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Toulouse stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Toulouse stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Toulouse have secured two victories in their last five home outings, while Troyes have managed just a solitary away win during their recent five-match sequence. The hosts have found the net in three of their last five matches at this venue but have failed to keep a clean sheet in that same sample. Toulouse face two confirmed absences ahead of the fixture, whereas Troyes will be without four players from their squad. Toulouse rate stronger on form, attack, defence and head-to-head. Toulouse won the most recent meeting 4-1 on 1 February 2023, having won 3 of the last 5 encounters to Troyes's 0, with 2 ending level; the fixture has averaged 2.2 goals per meeting. Over the 13-day comparison window, Toulouse's implied win probability has risen by 6.7 percentage points, while Troyes's implied win probability has fallen by 4.7 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison gives Toulouse a strong edge.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
45%
Troyes yellow cards after 75'
3
Troyes points from last 5 matches
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Strong shift towards Toulouse
Toulouse's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Toulouse win as more likely than it did 13 days ago.
Movement strength: Strong
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Toulouse win
Latest market chance 62.6%
Strong shortening
Market chance increased
55.9% → 62.6%
+6.7 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 21.4%
Notable drift
Market chance decreased
23.4% → 21.4%
−2.0 pts
Troyes win
Latest market chance 16.0%
Strong drift
Market chance decreased
20.7% → 16.0%
−4.7 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Toulouse
Draw
Troyes
7 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 13 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
ToulouseTroyes
Season Profile
This season
12th
League Position
17th
7
Games Played
7
1.29
Points/Game
0.57
1.71
Goals/Game
0.71
1.57
Conceded/Game
2.29
12.6
Shots/Game
13.1
4.7
Shots on Target
3.3
Home vs Away Context
Toulouse at home (6 matches) vs Troyes away (6 matches)
1.33
Points/Game
0.83
1.00
Goals/Game
0.33
1.00
Conceded/Game
1.00
33%
Win Rate
17%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Toulouse
Home form
W
L
L
W
D
2W 1D 2L in last 5 at home
1 of these match from last season.
1.0
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.2
Goals conceded
per match
per match
2/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Troyes
Away form
L
W
L
L
D
Lost 3 of last 5 away
1 of these match from last season.
0.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
2/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Toulouse Wins
2
Draws
3
Troyes Wins
0
Avg Goals
2.0
Toulouse0 – 0Troyes
Toulouse4 – 1Troyes
Troyes0 – 3Toulouse
Troyes1 – 1Toulouse
Toulouse0 – 0Troyes
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Toulousevs
Troyes
Recent Scoring Profile
1.40
Goals scored / game
0.70
1.20
Goals conceded / game
1.90
6/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
4/10
5/10
Both Teams Scored
5/10
4/10
Failed to Score
5/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 7 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 58.3%→Latest 60.0%+1.7 pts
Notable move towards 3+ goals
Most of this movement happened in the most recent snapshot, not spread evenly.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 57.8%→Latest 56.0%−1.8 pts
Notable move away from both teams scoring
Most of this movement happened in the most recent snapshot, not spread evenly.
The market is pricing a higher chance of both teams scoring than either team's recent rate.
2 of Toulouse's 10 matches and 2 of Troyes's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?