Toulouse vs Strasbourg Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Stadium Municipal
Fri 06 Nov 2026 · 19:45 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
2.11
Draw
3.75
Away Win
3.44
Match Report
Full Time
3 – 1
Match Events ?
Toulouse
Strasbourg
27'
🟨 Abdoul Karim Coulibaly
38'
🟨 Gessime Yassine
Christ Tape 🟨
38'
Thomas Jorgensen 🟨
40'
Santiago Hidalgo (Sion Oppong) ⚽
45+1'
Mark McKenzie (Cristian Casseres) ⚽
56'
Niko Sigur 🟨
60'
67'
⚽ Giovanni Reyna
Thomas Jorgensen (Rasmus Nicolaisen) ⚽
76'
88'
🟨 Jacobo Ortega
Match Statistics ?
48%
Ball Possession
52%
10
Total Shots
9
5
Shots on Goal
4
7
Corner Kicks
1
16
Fouls
15
3
Yellow Cards
3
0
Red Cards
0
1
Offsides
1
3
Goalkeeper Saves
2
Starting Lineups
Toulouse (4-4-2)
G. Restes
I. Diallo
M. McKenzie
R. Nicolaisen
C. Tapé
T. Jørgensen
C. Cásseres
N. Sigur
S. Oppong
S. Hidalgo
C. Tengstedt
Strasbourg (4-3-3)
F. Jörgensen
L. Høgsberg
I. Doukouré
Abdoul Karim Coulibaly
Oso
Dário Essugo
S. El Mourabet
G. Reyna
Gessime Yassine
C. Harder
M. Godo
Player Ratings ?
Toulouse
S. HidalgoF8.2
C. CásseresM7.7
T. JørgensenM7.5
Strasbourg
G. ReynaM7.2
C. HarderF6.7
S. Amo-AmeyawF6.6
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Toulouse edge defence and head-to-head, Strasbourg edge attack, recent form is closely matched, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Closely matched
HomeAway
Attack
Strasbourg stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Toulouse stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Toulouse stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Strasbourg have recorded just one win from their last five away outings, while Toulouse have secured a single victory and two draws in their most recent five home fixtures. Toulouse have scored in only one of their last five matches at home, though they have kept two clean sheets during that same period. Both Toulouse and Strasbourg have one player unavailable and one doubtful for this Ligue 1 fixture. Strasbourg rate stronger on attack, while Toulouse rate stronger on defence and head-to-head, while form is closely matched. Toulouse won the most recent meeting 2-1 on 3 May 2026, having won 2 of the last 5 encounters to Strasbourg's 2, with 1 ending level; the fixture has averaged 2.0 goals per meeting. Over the 11-day comparison window, Toulouse's implied win probability has fallen by 3.6 percentage points, while Strasbourg's implied win probability has risen by 2.8 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
4
Strasbourg losing run
4/5
One-goal H2H results
45%
Toulouse yellow cards after 75'
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Strong shift away from Toulouse
Toulouse's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Toulouse win as less likely than it did 11 days ago.
Movement strength: Strong
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Toulouse win
Latest market chance 46.4%
Strong drift
Market chance decreased
50.0% → 46.4%
−3.6 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 25.1%
Steady
Market view unchanged
24.4% → 25.1%
+0.7 pts
Strasbourg win
Latest market chance 28.5%
Notable shortening
Market chance increased
25.7% → 28.5%
+2.8 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Toulouse
Draw
Strasbourg
7 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 11 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
ToulouseStrasbourg
Season Profile
This season
12th
League Position
13th
9
Games Played
9
1.11
Points/Game
1.11
1.33
Goals/Game
1.89
1.44
Conceded/Game
2.11
12.6
Shots/Game
12.6
4.7
Shots on Target
4.9
Home vs Away Context
Toulouse at home (6 matches) vs Strasbourg away (7 matches)
1.33
Points/Game
0.43
1.00
Goals/Game
1.29
1.00
Conceded/Game
2.71
33%
Win Rate
14%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Toulouse
Home form
L
L
W
D
D
1W 2D 2L in last 5 at home
0.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
1/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Strasbourg
Away form
W
L
L
L
L
Lost 4 straight away
1.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Toulouse Wins
2
Draws
1
Strasbourg Wins
2
Avg Goals
2.0
Strasbourg1 – 2Toulouse
Toulouse1 – 0Strasbourg
Strasbourg2 – 1Toulouse
Toulouse1 – 2Strasbourg
Toulouse0 – 0Strasbourg
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Toulousevs
Strasbourg
Recent Scoring Profile
1.20
Goals scored / game
2.20
1.30
Goals conceded / game
1.90
5/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
9/10
4/10
Both Teams Scored
8/10
5/10
Failed to Score
2/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 7 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 60.0%→Latest 59.0%−1.0 pts
Slight move away from 3+ goals
Most of this movement happened in the most recent snapshot, not spread evenly.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 61.2%→Latest 61.3%+0.1 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?