Paris SG vs Troyes Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Parc des Princes
Sat 07 Nov 2026 · 20:05 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
1.13
Draw
10.95
Away Win
16.34
Match Report
Full Time
1 – 0
Match Events ?
Paris SG
Troyes
Ilya Zabarnyi 🟨
34'
Ilya Zabarnyi (Senny Mayulu) ⚽
39'
79'
🟨 Jérémy Le Douaron
86'
🟨 Antoine Mille
Match Statistics ?
73%
Ball Possession
27%
15
Total Shots
8
7
Shots on Goal
3
6
Corner Kicks
1
6
Fouls
7
1
Yellow Cards
2
0
Red Cards
0
1
Offsides
6
3
Goalkeeper Saves
6
Starting Lineups
Paris SG (4-3-3)
M. Safonov
W. Zaïre-Emery
I. Zabarnyi
W. Pacho
L. Hernández
Senny Mayulu
Vitinha
Fabián Ruiz
D. Doué
Ferran Torres
M. Godts
Troyes (4-5-1)
H. Konaté
L. Maronnier
A. Monfray
M. Diaz
I. Boura
M. Ifnaoui
A. Mille
D. Karim
M. Diop
K. Diawara
R. Ripart
Player Ratings ?
Paris SG
I. ZabarnyiD7.6
Senny MayuluM7.4
W. Zaïre-EmeryD7.3
Troyes
H. KonatéG7.6
D. KarimM7.2
M. DiazD6.8
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
Data favours
Paris SG
Paris SG rate stronger across every major category. They lead recent form, attack, defence and head-to-head, giving Paris SG a strong edge.
Leads 4 of 4 major categories
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Paris SG stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Paris SG stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Paris SG slightly stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Paris SG stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Paris SG enter this Ligue 1 fixture with four wins from their last five home outings, while Troyes have managed just a single victory in that same span away from home. The hosts have scored in all five of their recent home matches and kept three clean sheets during that identical period. Paris SG rate stronger on form, attack and head-to-head, with a slight advantage in defence. Paris SG won the most recent meeting 3-1 on 7 May 2023, having won 4 of the last 5 encounters to Troyes's 0, with 1 ending level; the fixture has averaged 4.0 goals per meeting. The market has remained broadly steady over the 12-day comparison window, with little change in either side's implied win probability. The overall statistical comparison gives Paris SG a strong edge.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
5
Troyes losing run
12
Paris SG points from last 5 matches
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Little change in the market
The betting market's view of this match has barely moved since the earliest comparable snapshot, 12 days before kickoff.
Movement strength: Steady
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Paris SG win
Latest market chance 84.7%
Steady
Market view unchanged
84.1% → 84.7%
+0.6 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 10.2%
Steady
Market view unchanged
10.4% → 10.2%
−0.2 pts
Troyes win
Latest market chance 5.1%
Steady
Market view unchanged
5.5% → 5.1%
−0.4 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Paris SG
Draw
Troyes
7 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 12 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
Paris SGTroyes
Season Profile
This season
1st
League Position
16th
9
Games Played
9
2.22
Points/Game
0.89
2.33
Goals/Game
0.78
1.11
Conceded/Game
1.78
19.3
Shots/Game
13.1
7.8
Shots on Target
3.3
Home vs Away Context
Paris SG at home (5 matches) vs Troyes away (6 matches)
2.40
Points/Game
0.83
1.80
Goals/Game
0.33
0.60
Conceded/Game
1.00
80%
Win Rate
17%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Paris SG
Home form
W
L
W
W
W
Won 3 straight at home
1 of these match from last season.
1.8
Goals scored
per match
per match
0.6
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
3/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Troyes
Away form
W
L
L
D
D
1W 2D 2L in last 5 away
0.4
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
1/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Paris SG Wins
4
Draws
1
Troyes Wins
0
Avg Goals
4.0
Troyes1 – 3Paris SG
Paris SG4 – 3Troyes
Paris SG2 – 2Troyes
Troyes1 – 2Paris SG
Troyes0 – 2Paris SG
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Paris SGvs
Troyes
Recent Scoring Profile
2.30
Goals scored / game
0.70
1.00
Goals conceded / game
1.60
7/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
3/10
7/10
Both Teams Scored
3/10
0/10
Failed to Score
6/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 74.3%→Latest 73.5%−0.8 pts
Slight move away from 3+ goals
Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 50.5%→Latest 48.6%−1.9 pts
Notable move away from both teams scoring
An earlier move in the opposite direction has partly reversed.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?