Paris SG vs Le Mans Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Parc des Princes
Sat 10 Oct 2026 · 19:45 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
1.09
Draw
12.73
Away Win
20.64
Match Report
Full Time
3 – 1
Match Events ?
Paris SG
Le Mans
Lucas Beraldo ⚽ (P)
19'
47'
🟨 Dame Gueye
54'
⚽ Louis Mafouta (Lucas Calodat)
Khvicha Kvaratskhelia ⚽
61'
65'
🟨 Louis Mafouta
Maghnes Akliouche (Warren Zaire-Emery) ⚽
68'
90+2'
🟨 Rayan Bamba
90+2'
🟨 Bilal Brahimi
Désiré Doue •
90+3'
90+3'
🟨 Noa Boissé
Match Statistics ?
72%
Ball Possession
28%
22
Total Shots
11
8
Shots on Goal
3
4
Corner Kicks
4
3
Fouls
17
0
Yellow Cards
5
0
Red Cards
0
1
Offsides
5
2
Goalkeeper Saves
5
Starting Lineups
Paris SG (4-3-3)
M. Safonov
A. Hakimi
I. Zabarnyi
L. Hernández
L. Digne
João Neves
Beraldo
Pedro Fernández
M. Akliouche
Ferran Torres
M. Godts
Le Mans (3-1-4-2)
N. Kocik
N. Boissé
S. Yohou
H. Voyer
A. Lauray
R. Bamba
L. Bretelle
J. Vercruysse
L. Calodat
H. Diallo
L. Mafouta
Player Ratings ?
Paris SG
M. AklioucheF8.1
K. KvaratskheliaF7.9
L. DigneD7.7
Le Mans
L. MafoutaF7.2
N. KocikG6.8
L. CalodatM6.7
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
Data favours
Paris SG
Paris SG rate stronger across every major category. They lead recent form, attack, defence and head-to-head, giving Paris SG a slight edge.
Leads 4 of 4 major categories
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Paris SG stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Paris SG stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Paris SG stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Paris SG stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Paris SG have recorded two wins and one draw from their last five home outings, while Le Mans have suffered three defeats with just two draws in that same span away from home. The hosts have found the net in five consecutive matches at this venue but have also kept a clean sheet on two occasions during that period. Paris SG face four confirmed absences, whereas Le Mans have one certain absence alongside two players listed as doubtful for selection. Paris SG rate stronger on form, attack, defence and head-to-head. This is the first time these two sides have met in the league since 2010. The market has remained broadly steady over the 23-day comparison window, with little change in either side's implied win probability. The overall statistical comparison gives Paris SG a slight edge.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Notable shift towards Paris SG
Paris SG's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Paris SG win as more likely than it did 14 days ago.
Movement strength: Notable
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Paris SG win
Latest market chance 87.9%
Notable shortening
Market chance increased
86.4% → 87.9%
+1.5 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 7.8%
Slight drift
Market chance decreased
8.7% → 7.8%
−0.9 pts
Le Mans win
Latest market chance 4.3%
Steady
Market view unchanged
5.0% → 4.3%
−0.7 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Paris SG
Draw
Le Mans
6 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 14 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
Paris SGLe Mans
Season Profile
This season
6th
League Position
10th
5
Games Played
5
1.60
Points/Game
1.20
1.60
Goals/Game
1.80
1.40
Conceded/Game
1.80
19.3
Shots/Game
10.7
7.8
Shots on Target
3.6
Home vs Away Context
Paris SG at home (5 matches) vs Le Mans away (5 matches)
2.40
Points/Game
0.40
1.80
Goals/Game
1.00
0.60
Conceded/Game
2.00
80%
Win Rate
0%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Paris SG
Home form
L
W
D
W
L
2W 1D 2L in last 5 at home
4 of these matches from last season.
1.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.2
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Le Mans
Away form
D
L
L
L
D
Winless in last 5 away
3 of these matches from last season.
1.2
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Paris SG Wins
3
Draws
1
Le Mans Wins
1
Avg Goals
2.0
Le Mans1 – 0Paris SG
Paris SG3 – 1Le Mans
Le Mans0 – 1Paris SG
Paris SG3 – 1Le Mans
Paris SG0 – 0Le Mans
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Paris SGvs
Le Mans
Recent Scoring Profile
1.70
Goals scored / game
1.40
1.10
Goals conceded / game
1.70
7/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
6/10
6/10
Both Teams Scored
8/10
0/10
Failed to Score
1/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 7 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 78.3%→Latest 77.3%−1.0 pts
Slight move away from 3+ goals
The market is pricing a higher chance of 3+ goals than either team's recent rate.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 48.9%→Latest 46.0%−2.9 pts
Notable move away from both teams scoring
An earlier move in the opposite direction has partly reversed.
The market is more cautious on both teams scoring than both teams' recent records.
5 of Paris SG's 10 matches and 5 of Le Mans's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?