Monaco vs Toulouse Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Stade Louis II
Sat 10 Oct 2026 · 19:45 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
1.59
Draw
4.54
Away Win
5.30
Match Report
Full Time
2 – 2
Match Events ?
Monaco
Toulouse
Edan Diop (Aleksandr Golovin) ⚽
29'
Matthis Abline (Edan Diop) ⚽
38'
Flavio Nazinho 🟨
47'
48'
⚽ (P) Casper Tengstedt
Aleksandr Golovin 🟨
54'
59'
⚽ Sion Oppong (Casper Tengstedt)
70'
🟨 Cristian Casseres
90+3'
🟨 Sion Oppong
Match Statistics ?
58%
Ball Possession
42%
16
Total Shots
8
4
Shots on Goal
4
4
Corner Kicks
4
10
Fouls
16
2
Yellow Cards
2
0
Red Cards
0
0
Offsides
1
2
Goalkeeper Saves
2
Starting Lineups
Monaco (4-2-3-1)
L. Hrádecký
Vanderson
Sadibou Sané
E. Dier
Flávio Nazinho
L. Camara
D. Zakaria
E. Diop
A. Golovin
M. Detourbet
M. Abline
Toulouse (4-2-3-1)
G. Restes
R. Messali
S. Koumbassa
M. McKenzie
C. Tapé
C. Cásseres
A. Vossah
T. Jørgensen
C. Tengstedt
Y. Azizi
J. Russell-Rowe
Player Ratings ?
Monaco
E. DiopM7.9
M. AblineF7.7
L. CamaraM7.2
Toulouse
S. OppongF7.8
C. TengstedtM7.2
Y. AziziM6.8
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Monaco edge recent form, attack, defence and head-to-head, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Monaco stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Monaco slightly stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Monaco stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Monaco stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Monaco have secured three victories from their last five home outings, while Toulouse have managed just one win in that same span away. The hosts have scored in four of their last five matches at this venue but have kept only a single clean sheet during that period. Toulouse face one confirmed absence ahead of the fixture. Monaco rate stronger on form, defence and head-to-head, with a slight advantage in attack. The most recent meeting, on 25 April 2026, ended level, with 2 of the last 5 encounters drawn overall; the fixture has averaged 2.4 goals per meeting. Over the 23-day comparison window, Monaco's implied win probability has risen by 7.2 percentage points, while Toulouse's implied win probability has fallen by 4.8 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Strong shift towards Monaco
Monaco's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Monaco win as more likely than it did 14 days ago.
Movement strength: Strong
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Monaco win
Latest market chance 59.7%
Strong shortening
Market chance increased
54.0% → 59.7%
+5.7 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 22.1%
Notable drift
Market chance decreased
24.1% → 22.1%
−2.0 pts
Toulouse win
Latest market chance 18.1%
Strong drift
Market chance decreased
21.9% → 18.1%
−3.8 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Monaco
Draw
Toulouse
6 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 14 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
MonacoToulouse
Season Profile
This season
1st
League Position
14th
5
Games Played
5
2.60
Points/Game
1.00
1.60
Goals/Game
1.40
0.60
Conceded/Game
1.80
11.8
Shots/Game
12.6
4.2
Shots on Target
4.7
Home vs Away Context
Monaco at home (4 matches) vs Toulouse away (6 matches)
2.00
Points/Game
1.00
1.75
Goals/Game
1.50
1.00
Conceded/Game
1.67
50%
Win Rate
17%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Monaco
Home form
W
D
L
W
W
Won 3 of last 5 at home
3 of these matches from last season.
1.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Toulouse
Away form
L
W
D
D
D
1W 3D 1L in last 5 away
3 of these matches from last season.
1.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.6
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Monaco Wins
2
Draws
2
Toulouse Wins
1
Avg Goals
2.4
Toulouse2 – 2Monaco
Monaco1 – 0Toulouse
Toulouse1 – 1Monaco
Monaco2 – 0Toulouse
Monaco1 – 2Toulouse
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Monacovs
Toulouse
Recent Scoring Profile
1.80
Goals scored / game
1.50
1.40
Goals conceded / game
1.60
6/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
7/10
7/10
Both Teams Scored
7/10
1/10
Failed to Score
3/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 7 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 56.6%→Latest 59.8%+3.2 pts
Strong move towards 3+ goals
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 57.7%→Latest 57.5%−0.2 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
The market is more cautious on both teams scoring than both teams' recent records.
5 of Monaco's 10 matches and 5 of Toulouse's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?