Monaco vs Lille Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Stade Louis II
Sun 25 Oct 2026 · 14:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
1.99
Draw
3.44
Away Win
4.14
Match Report
Full Time
1 – 1
Match Events ?
Monaco
Lille
24'
⚽ Ethan Mbappe (Soriba Diaoune)
Mamadou Coulibaly 🟨
32'
34'
🟨 Hákon Arnar Haraldsson
Mathys Detourbet 🟨
56'
66'
🟥 Nianzou Tanguy Kouassi
66'
🟨 Romain Perraud
Edan Diop (Jordan Teze) ⚽
74'
Vanderson 🟨
90+1'
90+2'
🟨 Maxima Goffi
90+4'
🟨 Berke Özer
Match Statistics ?
64%
Ball Possession
36%
21
Total Shots
4
6
Shots on Goal
2
6
Corner Kicks
1
18
Fouls
13
3
Yellow Cards
4
0
Red Cards
1
3
Offsides
2
1
Goalkeeper Saves
5
Starting Lineups
Monaco (4-2-3-1)
L. Hrádecký
Vanderson
Sadibou Sané
J. Teze
Flávio Nazinho
L. Camara
D. Zakaria
M. Coulibaly
A. Golovin
Ansu Fati
Paris Josua Brunner
Lille (4-3-3)
B. Özer
N. Ngoy
T. Nianzou
Alexsandro Ribeiro
R. Perraud
N. Mukau
N. Bentaleb
B. André
E. Mbappé
H. Haraldsson
S. Diaoune
Player Ratings ?
Monaco
E. DiopM7.6
VandersonD7.6
J. TezeD7.2
Lille
E. MbappéF8.1
N. NgoyD7.3
S. DiaouneF6.9
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Lille edge recent form, defence and head-to-head, attack is closely matched, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Lille slightly stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Closely matched
HomeAway
Defence
Lille stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Lille stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Lille have enjoyed a strong away run with four wins from their last five outings, while Monaco sit at home with two victories and two draws in that same span. Monaco have found the net in four of their last five home matches but have conceded in all but one of those recent fixtures. The hosts face potential disruption with one player out and another doubtful, whereas Lille carry three confirmed absences through their own squad concerns. Lille rate stronger on defence and head-to-head, with a slight advantage in form, while attack is closely matched. Lille won the most recent meeting 1-0 on 10 May 2026, having won 3 of the last 5 encounters to Monaco's 1, with 1 ending level; the fixture has averaged 1.2 goals per meeting. Over the 13-day comparison window, Monaco's implied win probability has risen by 2.8 percentage points, while Lille's implied win probability has fallen by 4.9 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
4/5
One-goal H2H results
67%
Lille yellow cards after 75'
12
Lille points from last 5 matches
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Strong shift away from Lille
Lille's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Lille win as less likely than it did 13 days ago. Monaco remain the clear market favourite.
Movement strength: Strong
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Monaco win
Latest market chance 47.9%
Notable shortening
Market chance increased
45.1% → 47.9%
+2.8 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 27.9%
Notable shortening
Market chance increased
25.8% → 27.9%
+2.1 pts
Lille win
Latest market chance 24.2%
Strong drift
Market chance decreased
29.1% → 24.2%
−4.9 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Monaco
Draw
Lille
7 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 13 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
MonacoLille
Season Profile
This season
5th
League Position
3rd
7
Games Played
7
2.00
Points/Game
2.00
1.43
Goals/Game
1.43
0.86
Conceded/Game
0.71
11.8
Shots/Game
11.4
4.2
Shots on Target
5.0
Home vs Away Context
Monaco at home (4 matches) vs Lille away (5 matches)
2.00
Points/Game
2.00
1.75
Goals/Game
1.40
1.00
Conceded/Game
0.80
50%
Win Rate
60%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Monaco
Home form
D
L
W
W
D
2W 2D 1L in last 5 at home
2 of these matches from last season.
1.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.2
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Lille
Away form
W
W
W
W
L
Won 4 of last 5 away
2 of these matches from last season.
1.2
Goals scored
per match
per match
0.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
4/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Monaco Wins
1
Draws
1
Lille Wins
3
Avg Goals
1.2
Monaco0 – 1Lille
Lille1 – 0Monaco
Lille2 – 1Monaco
Monaco0 – 0Lille
Monaco1 – 0Lille
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Monacovs
Lille
Recent Scoring Profile
1.60
Goals scored / game
1.20
1.30
Goals conceded / game
0.80
5/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
2/10
6/10
Both Teams Scored
4/10
2/10
Failed to Score
1/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 7 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 56.2%→Latest 52.7%−3.5 pts
Strong move away from 3+ goals
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 59.2%→Latest 56.2%−3.0 pts
Strong move away from both teams scoring
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
3 of Monaco's 10 matches and 3 of Lille's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?