Marseille vs Toulouse Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Orange Vélodrome
Sun 01 Nov 2026 · 19:45 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
1.95
Draw
4.04
Away Win
3.62
Match Report
Full Time
2 – 0
Match Events ?
Marseille
Toulouse
Amine Harit (Amine Gouiri) ⚽
1'
Amine Gouiri (Igor Paixão) ⚽
25'
Pierre-Emile Højbjerg 🟨
44'
CJ Egan-Riley 🟨
78'
86'
🟨 Santiago Hidalgo
Match Statistics ?
43%
Ball Possession
57%
13
Total Shots
14
3
Shots on Goal
7
4
Corner Kicks
3
14
Fouls
14
2
Yellow Cards
1
0
Red Cards
0
1
Offsides
4
6
Goalkeeper Saves
1
Starting Lineups
Marseille (4-1-4-1)
J. de Lange
T. Weah
C. Egan-Riley
N. Aguerd
Emerson
P. Højbjerg
A. Harit
H. Abdelli
T. Nnadi
Igor Paixão
A. Gouiri
Toulouse (4-4-2)
G. Restes
I. Diallo
M. McKenzie
R. Nicolaisen
C. Tapé
T. Jørgensen
N. Sigur
C. Cásseres
A. Dønnum
J. Russell-Rowe
C. Tengstedt
Player Ratings ?
Marseille
A. GouiriF8.7
A. HaritM8.2
J. de LangeG7.6
Toulouse
C. CásseresM7.1
J. Russell-RoweF6.9
N. SchmidtM6.6
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Marseille edge recent form, attack and head-to-head, Toulouse edge defence, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Marseille stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Marseille stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Toulouse stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Marseille stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Toulouse have kept clean sheets in four of their last five away matches without a defeat, while Marseille have won three of their last five home outings but suffered two losses in that same period. Marseille have scored in each of their last five home matches yet have failed to keep a clean sheet in four of those five fixtures. Both squads face minor availability concerns, with Marseille having one player unavailable and Toulouse two players unavailable for selection. Marseille rate stronger on form, attack and head-to-head, while Toulouse rate stronger on defence. Marseille won the most recent meeting 1-0 on 7 March 2026, having won 3 of the last 5 encounters to Toulouse's 0, with 2 ending level; the fixture has averaged 3.6 goals per meeting. Over the 12-day comparison window, Marseille's implied win probability has fallen by 3.6 percentage points, while Toulouse's implied win probability has risen by 3.6 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
4
Marseille losing run
58%
Marseille yellow cards after 75'
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Strong shift away from Marseille
Marseille's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Marseille win as less likely than it did 12 days ago.
Movement strength: Strong
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Marseille win
Latest market chance 48.2%
Strong drift
Market chance decreased
51.8% → 48.2%
−3.6 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 24.1%
Steady
Market view unchanged
24.1% → 24.1%
±0.0 pts
Toulouse win
Latest market chance 27.7%
Strong shortening
Market chance increased
24.1% → 27.7%
+3.6 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Marseille
Draw
Toulouse
4 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 12 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
MarseilleToulouse
Season Profile
This season
9th
League Position
11th
8
Games Played
8
1.50
Points/Game
1.25
2.25
Goals/Game
1.50
1.62
Conceded/Game
1.38
13.2
Shots/Game
12.6
4.7
Shots on Target
4.7
Home vs Away Context
Marseille at home (7 matches) vs Toulouse away (6 matches)
2.14
Points/Game
1.00
2.71
Goals/Game
1.50
1.57
Conceded/Game
1.67
71%
Win Rate
17%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Marseille
Home form
L
L
W
W
W
Won 3 straight at home
2.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.2
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Toulouse
Away form
D
D
D
W
L
1W 3D 1L in last 5 away
1.8
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.6
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Marseille Wins
4
Draws
1
Toulouse Wins
0
Avg Goals
3.2
Marseille2 – 0Toulouse
Toulouse0 – 1Marseille
Marseille2 – 2Toulouse
Marseille3 – 2Toulouse
Toulouse1 – 3Marseille
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Marseillevs
Toulouse
Recent Scoring Profile
2.40
Goals scored / game
1.20
1.60
Goals conceded / game
1.30
6/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
5/10
5/10
Both Teams Scored
4/10
2/10
Failed to Score
5/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 7 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 57.9%→Latest 61.7%+3.8 pts
Strong move towards 3+ goals
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 59.0%→Latest 62.9%+3.9 pts
Strong move towards both teams scoring
Most of this movement happened in the most recent snapshot, not spread evenly.
The market is pricing a higher chance of both teams scoring than either team's recent rate.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?