Marseille vs Le Havre Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Orange Vélodrome
Sun 25 Oct 2026 · 16:15 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
1.50
Draw
5.02
Away Win
5.79
Match Report
Full Time
4 – 3
Match Events ?
Marseille
Le Havre
CJ Egan-Riley (Emerson Palmieri) ⚽
5'
Timothy Weah ⚽
33'
Igor Paixão (Amine Gouiri) ⚽
50'
Himad Abdelli ⚽
55'
77'
⚽ (P) Josh Maja
83'
🟨 Simon Ebonog
86'
⚽ Lamine N'Diaye
89'
⚽ Josh Maja (Kaito Mizuta)
90+10'
🟨 Ayumu Seko
90+11'
🟨 Lamine N'Diaye
Neal Maupay 🟨
90+12'
Match Statistics ?
53%
Ball Possession
47%
11
Total Shots
22
5
Shots on Goal
7
4
Corner Kicks
3
15
Fouls
11
1
Yellow Cards
3
0
Red Cards
0
3
Offsides
1
3
Goalkeeper Saves
1
Starting Lineups
Marseille
H. Abdelli
J. de Lange
Igor Paixão
T. Nnadi
P. Højbjerg
A. Harit
A. Gouiri
Emerson
C. Egan-Riley
N. Aguerd
T. Weah
Le Havre
G. Gallon
S. Ebonog
R. Fofana
J. Mwanga
R. Ndiaye
D. Ouziad
A. Richardson
M. Samatta
A. Seko
E. Koffi Vinette
A. Touba
Player Ratings ?
Marseille
Igor PaixãoF8.2
H. AbdelliM8.1
T. WeahM7.6
Le Havre
J. MajaF8.2
S. NakamuraF6.8
R. FofanaF6.5
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
Data favours
Marseille
Marseille rate stronger in recent form, attack and head-to-head; Le Havre edge defence, giving Marseille an edge.
Leads 3 of 4 major categories
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Marseille stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Marseille stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Le Havre slightly stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Marseille stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Le Havre have found just one win in their last five away outings, while Marseille have secured two victories from their last five home fixtures. At home, Marseille have scored in all five of their recent matches but have kept just one clean sheet during that same span. Marseille face a single confirmed absence, whereas Le Havre are dealing with six players ruled out for selection. Marseille rate stronger on form, attack and head-to-head, while Le Havre hold a slight advantage in defence. Marseille won the most recent meeting 1-0 on 10 May 2026, having won 5 of the last 5 encounters to Le Havre's 0, with 0 ending level; the fixture has averaged 4.4 goals per meeting. Over the 13-day comparison window, Marseille's implied win probability has risen by 3.5 percentage points, while Le Havre's implied win probability has fallen by 1.3 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison favours Marseille.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
4
Marseille losing run
55%
Marseille yellow cards after 75'
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Strong shift towards Marseille
Marseille's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Marseille win as more likely than it did 13 days ago.
Movement strength: Strong
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Marseille win
Latest market chance 63.0%
Strong shortening
Market chance increased
59.5% → 63.0%
+3.5 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 19.9%
Notable drift
Market chance decreased
22.0% → 19.9%
−2.1 pts
Le Havre win
Latest market chance 17.2%
Slight drift
Market chance decreased
18.5% → 17.2%
−1.3 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Marseille
Draw
Le Havre
7 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 13 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
MarseilleLe Havre
Season Profile
This season
10th
League Position
18th
7
Games Played
7
1.29
Points/Game
0.29
2.00
Goals/Game
0.71
1.43
Conceded/Game
1.57
13.2
Shots/Game
16.7
4.7
Shots on Target
5.0
Home vs Away Context
Marseille at home (7 matches) vs Le Havre away (5 matches)
2.14
Points/Game
0.20
2.71
Goals/Game
1.80
1.57
Conceded/Game
2.60
71%
Win Rate
0%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Marseille
Home form
W
W
L
L
W
Won 3 of last 5 at home
1 of these match from last season.
2.8
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.8
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Le Havre
Away form
W
D
L
L
L
Lost 3 straight away
1 of these match from last season.
1.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.8
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Marseille Wins
5
Draws
0
Le Havre Wins
0
Avg Goals
5.2
Marseille4 – 3Le Havre
Le Havre0 – 1Marseille
Marseille6 – 2Le Havre
Le Havre1 – 3Marseille
Marseille5 – 1Le Havre
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Marseillevs
Le Havre
Recent Scoring Profile
2.20
Goals scored / game
1.00
1.40
Goals conceded / game
1.60
6/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
4/10
5/10
Both Teams Scored
5/10
2/10
Failed to Score
4/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 7 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 59.3%→Latest 62.9%+3.6 pts
Strong move towards 3+ goals
Most of this movement happened in the most recent snapshot, not spread evenly.
Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 56.8%→Latest 58.3%+1.5 pts
Notable move towards both teams scoring
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
The market is pricing a higher chance of both teams scoring than either team's recent rate.
2 of Marseille's 10 matches and 2 of Le Havre's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?