Lyon vs Nice Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Groupama Stadium
Sun 18 Oct 2026 · 19:45 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
1.89
Draw
3.97
Away Win
3.99
Match Report
Full Time
2 – 1
Match Events ?
Lyon
Nice
10'
🟨 Niels Nkounkou
18'
⚽ Sepe Elye Wahi (Jonathan Clauss)
Pavel Šulc ⚽
32'
Tanner Tessmann (Zachary Athekame) ⚽
36'
48'
🟨 Mohamed Abdelmoneim
65'
🟨 Mohamed Amoura
Keito Nakamura 🟥
70'
90+4'
🟨 Sepe Elye Wahi
Match Statistics ?
48%
Ball Possession
52%
8
Total Shots
12
4
Shots on Goal
5
1
Corner Kicks
9
6
Fouls
14
0
Yellow Cards
4
1
Red Cards
0
0
Offsides
3
3
Goalkeeper Saves
2
Starting Lineups
Lyon (4-2-3-1)
R. Descamps
Z. Athekame
Clinton Mata
M. Niakhaté
Abner
T. Tessmann
M. Bidstrup
K. Boudache
N. Nartey
J. Duranville
P. Šulc
Nice (3-4-2-1)
Y. Diouf
Mohamed Abdelmonem
Y. Ndayishimiye
X. Mandza Tsiendi
J. Clauss
A. Witsel
H. Boudaoui
N. Nkounkou
G. Hein
M. Amoura
E. Wahi
Player Ratings ?
Lyon
T. TessmannM8.1
P. ŠulcF7.7
Z. AthekameD7.1
Nice
E. WahiF7.4
J. ClaussM7.1
Y. NdayishimiyeD6.9
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
Data favours
Lyon
Lyon rate stronger across every major category. They lead recent form, attack, defence and head-to-head, giving Lyon a slight edge.
Leads 4 of 4 major categories
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Lyon stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Lyon stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Lyon slightly stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Lyon stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Lyon have secured three victories from their last five home outings, while Nice remain winless in five away fixtures with just two draws to show for it. At home, Lyon have found the net in four of their last five matches but have only kept one clean sheet during that same span. Lyon face three confirmed absences ahead of this clash, whereas Nice are without four players with one additional doubt lingering over their squad. Lyon rate stronger on form, attack and head-to-head, with a slight advantage in defence. Lyon won the most recent meeting 2-0 on 15 February 2026, having won 4 of the last 5 encounters to Nice's 1, with 0 ending level; the fixture has averaged 3.0 goals per meeting. Over the 14-day comparison window, Lyon's implied win probability has fallen by 7.2 percentage points, while Nice's implied win probability has risen by 5.7 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison gives Lyon a slight edge.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Strong shift away from Lyon
Lyon's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Lyon win as less likely than it did 14 days ago.
Movement strength: Strong
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Lyon win
Latest market chance 50.3%
Strong drift
Market chance decreased
57.5% → 50.3%
−7.2 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 25.2%
Notable shortening
Market chance increased
23.7% → 25.2%
+1.5 pts
Nice win
Latest market chance 24.5%
Strong shortening
Market chance increased
18.8% → 24.5%
+5.7 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Lyon
Draw
Nice
5 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 14 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
LyonNice
Season Profile
This season
5th
League Position
11th
6
Games Played
6
1.83
Points/Game
1.33
1.83
Goals/Game
0.83
0.67
Conceded/Game
1.17
12.9
Shots/Game
12.4
4.6
Shots on Target
4.4
Home vs Away Context
Lyon at home (6 matches) vs Nice away (5 matches)
2.67
Points/Game
1.20
2.33
Goals/Game
1.00
0.50
Conceded/Game
1.40
83%
Win Rate
40%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Lyon
Home form
W
L
D
W
W
Won 3 of last 5 at home
2 of these matches from last season.
2.4
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.6
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Nice
Away form
D
D
L
L
L
Lost 3 straight away
3 of these matches from last season.
0.4
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
2/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Lyon Wins
4
Draws
0
Nice Wins
1
Avg Goals
3.0
Lyon2 – 0Nice
Nice3 – 2Lyon
Nice0 – 2Lyon
Lyon4 – 1Nice
Lyon1 – 0Nice
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Lyonvs
Nice
Recent Scoring Profile
1.90
Goals scored / game
0.80
1.40
Goals conceded / game
1.10
7/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
4/10
6/10
Both Teams Scored
6/10
2/10
Failed to Score
4/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 5 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 56.1%→Latest 56.3%+0.2 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 54.7%→Latest 57.7%+3.0 pts
Strong move towards both teams scoring
Most of this movement happened in the most recent snapshot, not spread evenly.
Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.
4 of Lyon's 10 matches and 4 of Nice's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?