Lorient vs Monaco Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Stade du Moustoir
Sun 18 Oct 2026 · 16:15 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
3.80
Draw
3.42
Away Win
2.11
Match Report
Full Time
1 – 0
Match Events ?
Lorient
Monaco
57'
🟨 Mohammed Salisu
60'
🟨 Denis Zakaria
60'
🟨 Flavio Nazinho
Noah Cadiou ⚽ (P)
61'
Noah Cadiou 🟨
66'
Arsène Kouassi 🟨
76'
80'
🟨 Christian Mawissa
Match Statistics ?
42%
Ball Possession
58%
9
Total Shots
15
3
Shots on Goal
4
3
Corner Kicks
4
10
Fouls
17
2
Yellow Cards
4
0
Red Cards
0
1
Offsides
0
4
Goalkeeper Saves
2
Starting Lineups
Lorient (3-4-2-1)
Y. Mvogo
N. Adjei
M. Talbi
S. Touré
D. Sylla
N. Cadiou
A. Avom
K. Kouassi
J. Makengo
G. Bernardeau
I. Baldé
Monaco (4-2-3-1)
L. Hrádecký
Vanderson
Sadibou Sané
M. Salisu
Flávio Nazinho
L. Camara
D. Zakaria
T. Minamino
Ansu Fati
A. Golovin
M. Abline
Player Ratings ?
Lorient
S. TouréD7.7
Y. MvogoG7.5
M. TalbiD7.4
Monaco
VandersonD7.5
L. CamaraM7.2
E. DiopM7.1
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Lorient edge head-to-head, Monaco edge recent form and attack, defence is closely matched, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Monaco stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Monaco stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Closely matched
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Lorient stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Monaco have secured three wins from their last five away fixtures, while Lorient have recorded just a single victory in five home outings. Lorient have scored in four of their last five home matches but have kept only one clean sheet during that same period. Lorent face a single confirmed absence in their squad, whereas Monaco carry two players listed as doubtful ahead of kickoff. Monaco rate stronger on form and attack, while Lorient rate stronger on head-to-head, while defence is closely matched. Lorient won the most recent meeting 3-1 on 16 January 2026, having won 2 of the last 5 encounters to Monaco's 1, with 2 ending level; the fixture has averaged 4.0 goals per meeting. Over the 14-day comparison window, Lorient's implied win probability has fallen by 1.2 percentage points, while Monaco's implied win probability has risen by 0.5 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Slight shift away from Lorient
Lorient's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Lorient win as less likely than it did 14 days ago. This is a modest move, not a major change in market opinion. Monaco remain the clear market favourite.
Movement strength: Slight
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Lorient win
Latest market chance 25.9%
Slight drift
Market chance decreased
27.1% → 25.9%
−1.2 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 28.2%
Steady
Market view unchanged
27.5% → 28.2%
+0.7 pts
Monaco win
Latest market chance 45.9%
Steady
Market view unchanged
45.4% → 45.9%
+0.5 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Lorient
Draw
Monaco
5 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 14 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
LorientMonaco
Season Profile
This season
10th
League Position
3rd
6
Games Played
6
1.33
Points/Game
2.33
1.00
Goals/Game
1.67
1.00
Conceded/Game
0.83
10.0
Shots/Game
11.8
2.8
Shots on Target
4.2
Home vs Away Context
Lorient at home (6 matches) vs Monaco away (6 matches)
1.17
Points/Game
1.33
0.83
Goals/Game
1.00
1.33
Conceded/Game
1.17
33%
Win Rate
33%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Lorient
Home form
L
L
L
D
W
Lost 3 of last 5 at home
2 of these matches from last season.
1.2
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.8
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Monaco
Away form
W
L
W
W
D
Won 3 of last 5 away
2 of these matches from last season.
2.0
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.6
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Lorient Wins
2
Draws
2
Monaco Wins
1
Avg Goals
4.0
Monaco1 – 3Lorient
Lorient3 – 1Monaco
Monaco2 – 2Lorient
Lorient2 – 2Monaco
Monaco3 – 1Lorient
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Lorientvs
Monaco
Recent Scoring Profile
1.40
Goals scored / game
1.80
1.30
Goals conceded / game
1.40
6/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
6/10
5/10
Both Teams Scored
7/10
2/10
Failed to Score
1/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 5 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 51.3%→Latest 47.6%−3.7 pts
Strong move away from 3+ goals
Most of this movement happened in the most recent snapshot, not spread evenly.
The market is more cautious on 3+ goals than both teams' recent records.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 55.6%→Latest 52.3%−3.3 pts
Strong move away from both teams scoring
Most of this movement happened in the most recent snapshot, not spread evenly.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
4 of Lorient's 10 matches and 4 of Monaco's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?