Lille vs Lens Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Stade Pierre-Mauroy
Fri 30 Oct 2026 · 20:05 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
2.86
Draw
3.33
Away Win
2.61
Match Report
Full Time
1 – 0
Match Events ?
Lille
Lens
10'
🟨 Saud Abdulhamid
Davide Ancelotti 🟨
45'
Olivier Giroud ⚽
86'
Match Statistics ?
62%
Ball Possession
38%
16
Total Shots
5
7
Shots on Goal
3
10
Corner Kicks
2
7
Fouls
14
0
Yellow Cards
1
0
Red Cards
0
1
Offsides
0
3
Goalkeeper Saves
6
Starting Lineups
Lille (4-3-3)
B. Özer
M. Goffi
N. Ngoy
Alexsandro Ribeiro
R. Perraud
N. Mukau
N. Bentaleb
B. André
E. Mbappé
H. Haraldsson
S. Diaoune
Lens (3-4-2-1)
R. Risser
R. Aguilar
S. Baidoo
J. Todibo
Saud Abdulhamid
A. Haidara
M. Cuisance
M. Udol
F. Thauvin
F. Sotoca
T. Hazard
Player Ratings ?
Lille
O. GiroudF7.7
Alexsandro RibeiroD7.5
N. BentalebM7.2
Lens
R. RisserG7.9
R. AguilarD6.7
J. TodiboD6.7
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Lille edge defence and head-to-head, Lens edge attack, recent form is closely matched, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Closely matched
HomeAway
Attack
Lens stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Lille stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Lille stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Lille have secured two victories from their last five home outings, while Lens have managed just two wins in their away fixtures over the same span. The hosts have found the net in four of their last five matches at this venue and have kept two clean sheets during that period. Lille face three confirmed absences ahead of kickoff, whereas Lens must manage without six players from their matchday squad. Lens rate stronger on attack, while Lille rate stronger on defence and head-to-head, while form is closely matched. Lille won the most recent meeting 3-0 on 4 April 2026, having won 4 of the last 5 encounters to Lens's 1, with 0 ending level; the fixture has averaged 2.4 goals per meeting. Over the 10-day comparison window, Lille's implied win probability has fallen by 4.9 percentage points, while Lens's implied win probability has risen by 4.0 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
Advertisement
Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Strong shift away from Lille
Lille's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Lille win as less likely than it did 10 days ago. Lens remain the clear market favourite.
Movement strength: Strong
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Lille win
Latest market chance 35.4%
Strong drift
Market chance decreased
40.3% → 35.4%
−4.9 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 27.8%
Slight shortening
Market chance increased
26.9% → 27.8%
+0.9 pts
Lens win
Latest market chance 36.8%
Strong shortening
Market chance increased
32.8% → 36.8%
+4.0 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Lille
Draw
Lens
4 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 10 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
LilleLens
Season Profile
This season
3rd
League Position
7th
8
Games Played
8
1.88
Points/Game
1.63
1.38
Goals/Game
2.00
0.75
Conceded/Game
1.50
11.4
Shots/Game
12.9
5.0
Shots on Target
5.4
Home vs Away Context
Lille at home (6 matches) vs Lens away (6 matches)
2.33
Points/Game
0.67
1.33
Goals/Game
1.17
0.50
Conceded/Game
1.50
67%
Win Rate
17%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Lille
Home form
L
D
W
W
D
2W 2D 1L in last 5 at home
1 of these match from last season.
1.2
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Lens
Away form
W
L
D
L
W
2W 1D 2L in last 5 away
1 of these match from last season.
2.2
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Lille Wins
4
Draws
0
Lens Wins
1
Avg Goals
2.4
Lille3 – 0Lens
Lens3 – 0Lille
Lille1 – 0Lens
Lens0 – 2Lille
Lille2 – 1Lens
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Lillevs
Lens
Recent Scoring Profile
1.20
Goals scored / game
2.00
0.80
Goals conceded / game
1.40
2/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
8/10
4/10
Both Teams Scored
7/10
1/10
Failed to Score
2/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 56.2%→Latest 53.0%−3.2 pts
Strong move away from 3+ goals
Most of this movement happened in the most recent snapshot, not spread evenly.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 60.1%→Latest 57.8%−2.3 pts
Notable move away from both teams scoring
Most of this movement happened in the most recent snapshot, not spread evenly.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
2 of Lille's 10 matches and 2 of Lens's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?