Lille vs Le Havre Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Stade Pierre-Mauroy
Sat 10 Oct 2026 · 16:15 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
1.46
Draw
4.88
Away Win
6.74
Match Report
Full Time
1 – 0
Match Events ?
Lille
Le Havre
Dilane Bakwa (Nianzou Tanguy Kouassi) ⚽
5'
61'
🟥 Ayumu Seko
63'
🟨 Rassoul Ndiaye
76'
🟨 Djibril Ouziad
Maurits Kjaergaard 🟨
85'
Maxima Goffi 🟨
90+2'
Match Statistics ?
47%
Ball Possession
53%
5
Total Shots
17
1
Shots on Goal
2
4
Corner Kicks
5
17
Fouls
12
2
Yellow Cards
2
0
Red Cards
1
4
Offsides
1
2
Goalkeeper Saves
0
Starting Lineups
Lille (4-2-3-1)
B. Özer
Tiago Santos
T. Nianzou
Alexsandro Ribeiro
R. Perraud
N. Bentaleb
M. Kjærgaard
D. Bakwa
N. Mukau
G. Perrin
O. Giroud
Le Havre (4-2-3-1)
G. Gallon
D. Ouziad
A. Seko
A. Touba
M. Ndiaye
S. Ebonog
A. Richardson
S. Nakamura
R. Ndiaye
M. Samatta
J. Maja
Player Ratings ?
Lille
D. BakwaM8.2
T. NianzouD7.6
Alexsandro RibeiroD7.6
Le Havre
R. NdiayeM7.2
M. NdiayeNone6.9
S. EbonogM6.8
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
Data favours
Lille
Lille rate stronger in recent form, defence and head-to-head; attack is closely matched, giving Lille a slight edge.
Leads 3 of 4 major categories
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Lille stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Closely matched
HomeAway
Defence
Lille stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Lille stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Le Havre have found little success on the road recently, while Lille have been equally inconsistent at home over their last five matches. Lille have scored in three of their last five home fixtures but have also kept two clean sheets in that same span. The hosts face just one absence, whereas Le Havre will be without five players with one more listed as doubtful. Lille rate stronger on form, defence and head-to-head, while attack is closely matched. The most recent meeting, on 3 May 2026, ended level, with 1 of the last 5 encounters drawn overall; the fixture has averaged 2.4 goals per meeting. Over the 23-day comparison window, Lille's implied win probability has fallen by 1.5 percentage points, while Le Havre's implied win probability has risen by 1.1 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison gives Lille a slight edge.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Slight shift away from Lille
Lille's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Lille win as less likely than it did 14 days ago. This is a modest move, not a major change in market opinion.
Movement strength: Slight
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Lille win
Latest market chance 65.9%
Slight drift
Market chance decreased
67.2% → 65.9%
−1.3 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 20.5%
Steady
Market view unchanged
20.2% → 20.5%
+0.3 pts
Le Havre win
Latest market chance 13.6%
Slight shortening
Market chance increased
12.6% → 13.6%
+1.0 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Lille
Draw
Le Havre
6 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 14 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
LilleLe Havre
Season Profile
This season
4th
League Position
18th
5
Games Played
5
2.00
Points/Game
0.40
1.60
Goals/Game
0.80
0.80
Conceded/Game
1.40
11.4
Shots/Game
16.7
5.0
Shots on Target
5.0
Home vs Away Context
Lille at home (6 matches) vs Le Havre away (5 matches)
2.33
Points/Game
0.20
1.33
Goals/Game
1.80
0.50
Conceded/Game
2.60
67%
Win Rate
0%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Lille
Home form
D
D
L
D
W
1W 3D 1L in last 5 at home
3 of these matches from last season.
1.0
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Le Havre
Away form
D
D
W
D
L
1W 3D 1L in last 5 away
3 of these matches from last season.
1.4
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.2
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Lille Wins
3
Draws
1
Le Havre Wins
1
Avg Goals
2.4
Lille1 – 1Le Havre
Le Havre0 – 1Lille
Lille1 – 2Le Havre
Le Havre0 – 3Lille
Lille3 – 0Le Havre
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Lillevs
Le Havre
Recent Scoring Profile
1.10
Goals scored / game
1.20
0.70
Goals conceded / game
1.40
2/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
3/10
3/10
Both Teams Scored
6/10
2/10
Failed to Score
3/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 7 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 54.9%→Latest 57.2%+2.3 pts
Notable move towards 3+ goals
An earlier move in the opposite direction has partly reversed.
The market is pricing a higher chance of 3+ goals than either team's recent rate.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 48.3%→Latest 50.8%+2.5 pts
Notable move towards both teams scoring
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
5 of Lille's 10 matches and 5 of Le Havre's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?