Lille vs Brest Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis

Archived Result — stats and prediction shown as they stood before kickoff
Stade Pierre-Mauroy
Sat 17 Oct 2026 · 19:45 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
2.00
Draw
3.79
Away Win
3.70
Match Report
Full Time
1 – 1
Match Events ?
Lille
Brest
6'
⚽ Mama Baldé (Gautier Lloris)
13'
🟨 Kamory Doumbia
58'
🟨 Bradley Locko
Olivier Giroud ⚽ (P)
64'
Calvin Verdonk 🟨
90'
Match Statistics ?
67%
Ball Possession
33%
17
Total Shots
8
5
Shots on Goal
2
5
Corner Kicks
2
12
Fouls
20
1
Yellow Cards
2
0
Red Cards
0
3
Offsides
0
1
Goalkeeper Saves
4
Starting Lineups
Lille (4-2-3-1)
O. Gill
M. Goffi
N. Ngoy
T. Nianzou
R. Perraud
B. André
N. Mukau
E. Mbappé
H. Haraldsson
D. Bakwa
O. Giroud
Brest (4-2-3-1)
E. Selvik
K. Lala
L. Tousart
G. Lloris
B. Locko
J. Chotard
H. Magnetti
Mama Baldé
K. Doumbia
P. Mboup
L. Ajorque
Player Ratings ?
Lille
M. GoffiD7.2
O. GiroudF7.1
N. BentalebM7.0
Brest
E. SelvikG7.6
Mama BaldéM7.5
G. LlorisD7.0
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Lille edge recent form and defence, Brest edge attack and head-to-head, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Lille stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Brest slightly stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Lille stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Brest slightly stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Lille have secured two victories from their last five home outings, whereas Brest have managed just a single win during their corresponding away sample. At home, Lille have found the net in four of their last five matches while also keeping two clean sheets within that same period. Lille face three unavailable players for this encounter, while Brest will be without four of their squad members. Lille rate stronger on form and defence, while Brest hold a slight advantage in attack and head-to-head. The most recent meeting, on 14 February 2026, ended level, with 3 of the last 5 encounters drawn overall; the fixture has averaged 3.2 goals per meeting. Over the 14-day comparison window, Lille's implied win probability has fallen by 9.8 percentage points, while Brest's implied win probability has risen by 6.9 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
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Market View
?
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Strong shift away from Lille
Lille's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Lille win as less likely than it did 14 days ago.
Movement strength: Strong
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Lille win
Latest market chance 49.4%
Strong drift
Market chance decreased
59.2% → 49.4%
−9.8 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 25.4%
Notable shortening
Market chance increased
22.6% → 25.4%
+2.8 pts
Brest win
Latest market chance 25.2%
Strong shortening
Market chance increased
18.3% → 25.2%
+6.9 pts
Movement over time
Change vs first comparable snapshot
15 snapshots
+10+50−5Oct 3Oct 7Oct 10Oct 13Oct 17
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Lille
Draw
Brest
5 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 14 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
Lille
Brest
Season Profile
This season
2nd
League Position
8th
6
Games Played
6
2.17
Points/Game
1.33
1.50
Goals/Game
2.00
0.67
Conceded/Game
1.50
11.4
Shots/Game
16.0
5.0
Shots on Target
5.7
Home vs Away Context
Lille at home (6 matches) vs Brest away (6 matches)
2.33
Points/Game
1.83
1.33
Goals/Game
1.67
0.50
Conceded/Game
1.00
67%
Win Rate
50%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Lille
Home form
D
L
D
W
W
2W 2D 1L in last 5 at home
2 of these matches from last season.
1.2
Goals scored
per match
1.0
Goals conceded
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
VS
Brest
Away form
L
L
D
W
L
Lost 3 of last 5 away
2 of these matches from last season.
1.0
Goals scored
per match
2.0
Goals conceded
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Lille Wins
1
Draws
3
Brest Wins
1
Avg Goals
3.2
2026-02-142025-2026
Lille1 – 1Brest
2025-08-172025-2026
Brest3 – 3Lille
2025-05-102024-2025
Brest2 – 0Lille
2024-12-062024-2025
Lille3 – 1Brest
2024-03-172023-2024
Brest1 – 1Lille
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Lille
vs
Brest
Recent Scoring Profile
1.20
Goals scored / game
1.40
0.70
Goals conceded / game
1.70
2/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
7/10
3/10
Both Teams Scored
7/10
1/10
Failed to Score
3/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
77.5%
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
55.5%
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
34.8%
BTTSBoth teams score
57.6%
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 5 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 56.7%→Latest 55.5%−1.2 pts
Slight move away from 3+ goals
Most of this movement happened in the most recent snapshot, not spread evenly.
Oct 3Oct 7Oct 10Oct 13Oct 17
4 common bookmakers · first comparable 14 days before kickoff
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 54.9%→Latest 57.5%+2.6 pts
Notable move towards both teams scoring
Most of this movement happened in the most recent snapshot, not spread evenly.
Oct 3Oct 7Oct 10Oct 13Oct 17
4 common bookmakers · first comparable 14 days before kickoff
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
4 of Lille's 10 matches and 4 of Brest's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?
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