Lens vs Paris FC Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Stade Bollaert-Delelis
Sat 24 Oct 2026 · 19:45 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
2.52
Draw
3.66
Away Win
2.75
Match Report
Full Time
2 – 1
Match Events ?
Lens
Paris FC
28'
🟨 Moustapha Mbow
29'
🟨 Pierre Lees Melou
45+2'
⚽ Luca Koleosho (Lassine Sinayoko)
Florian Thauvin 🟨
51'
Florian Thauvin (Thorgan Hazard) ⚽
63'
Samson Baidoo 🟨
74'
Thorgan Hazard (Florian Thauvin) ⚽
83'
Michał Skóraś 🟨
89'
90+2'
🟨 Otavio
Y. Cahuzac 🟨
90+5'
Match Statistics ?
56%
Ball Possession
44%
9
Total Shots
4
3
Shots on Goal
1
6
Corner Kicks
1
17
Fouls
17
3
Yellow Cards
3
0
Red Cards
0
0
Offsides
1
0
Goalkeeper Saves
2
Starting Lineups
Lens (3-4-2-1)
R. Risser
R. Aguilar
S. Baidoo
J. Todibo
Saud Abdulhamid
M. Cuisance
A. Haidara
M. Udol
F. Thauvin
F. Sotoca
F. Ivanović
Paris FC (4-2-3-1)
O. Nkambadio
A. Camara
M. Mbow
D. Coppola
Otávio
M. Lopez
P. Lees-Melou
I. Kebbal
P. Pagis
L. Koleosho
L. Sinayoko
Player Ratings ?
Lens
F. ThauvinM7.9
T. HazardM7.5
Saud AbdulhamidM7.0
Paris FC
L. KoleoshoM7.3
D. CoppolaD6.7
M. LopezM6.7
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Lens edge attack and head-to-head, Paris FC edge recent form and defence, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Paris FC stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Lens slightly stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Paris FC slightly stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Lens stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Lens have secured three victories in their last five home outings, while Paris FC's away record over that same span shows two wins and two defeats alongside a single draw. At this venue, Lens have found the net in three of their last five matches but have only managed to keep a clean sheet once during that period. Paris FC have two players confirmed out, whereas Lens face five confirmed absences ahead of this Ligue 1 fixture. Paris FC rate stronger on form, with a slight advantage in defence, while Lens rate stronger on head-to-head, with a slight advantage in attack. Lens won the most recent meeting 5-0 on 14 February 2026, having won 4 of the last 5 encounters to Paris FC's 1, with 0 ending level; the fixture has averaged 3.0 goals per meeting. Over the 12-day comparison window, Lens's implied win probability has fallen by 7.5 percentage points, while Paris FC's implied win probability has risen by 6.3 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Strong shift away from Lens
Lens's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Lens win as less likely than it did 12 days ago.
Movement strength: Strong
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Lens win
Latest market chance 39.0%
Strong drift
Market chance decreased
46.5% → 39.0%
−7.5 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 26.5%
Slight shortening
Market chance increased
25.3% → 26.5%
+1.2 pts
Paris FC win
Latest market chance 34.5%
Strong shortening
Market chance increased
28.2% → 34.5%
+6.3 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Lens
Draw
Paris FC
7 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 12 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
LensParis FC
Season Profile
This season
9th
League Position
3rd
7
Games Played
7
1.43
Points/Game
2.00
2.00
Goals/Game
1.71
1.57
Conceded/Game
1.00
12.9
Shots/Game
13.5
5.4
Shots on Target
4.9
Home vs Away Context
Lens at home (5 matches) vs Paris FC away (5 matches)
1.80
Points/Game
1.40
2.00
Goals/Game
1.00
1.40
Conceded/Game
1.00
60%
Win Rate
40%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Lens
Home form
W
L
W
L
W
Won 3 of last 5 at home
2 of these matches from last season.
1.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.2
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Paris FC
Away form
W
L
D
W
L
2W 1D 2L in last 5 away
2 of these matches from last season.
1.4
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.2
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Lens Wins
4
Draws
0
Paris FC Wins
1
Avg Goals
3.0
Paris FC0 – 5Lens
Lens2 – 1Paris FC
Paris FC0 – 2Lens
Lens2 – 1Paris FC
Paris FC2 – 0Lens
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Lensvs
Paris FC
Recent Scoring Profile
1.90
Goals scored / game
1.90
1.30
Goals conceded / game
1.00
7/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
7/10
6/10
Both Teams Scored
5/10
2/10
Failed to Score
3/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 7 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 58.6%→Latest 57.3%−1.3 pts
Slight move away from 3+ goals
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
The market is more cautious on 3+ goals than both teams' recent records.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 60.6%→Latest 61.1%+0.5 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Most of this movement happened in the most recent snapshot, not spread evenly.
Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.
3 of Lens's 10 matches and 3 of Paris FC's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?