Lens vs Marseille Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Stade Bollaert-Delelis
Sun 08 Nov 2026 · 19:45 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
2.35
Draw
3.91
Away Win
2.86
Match Report
Full Time
1 – 2
Match Events ?
Lens
Marseille
2'
⚽ Amine Gouiri
Florian Thauvin (Florian Sotoca) ⚽
20'
Yassine Titraoui 🟨
79'
81'
🟨 Amine Gouiri
82'
⚽ Keyliane Abdallah
90+2'
🟨 Jeffrey De Lange
Match Statistics ?
41%
Ball Possession
59%
13
Total Shots
16
6
Shots on Goal
5
4
Corner Kicks
6
15
Fouls
8
1
Yellow Cards
2
0
Red Cards
0
1
Offsides
0
2
Goalkeeper Saves
5
Starting Lineups
Lens (3-4-2-1)
R. Risser
J. Gradit
S. Baidoo
J. Todibo
Saud Abdulhamid
Y. Titraoui
A. Haidara
M. Udol
F. Thauvin
F. Sotoca
T. Hazard
Marseille (4-2-3-1)
J. de Lange
T. Weah
C. Egan-Riley
N. Aguerd
U. Garcia
T. Nnadi
P. Højbjerg
A. Harit
H. Abdelli
Igor Paixão
A. Gouiri
Player Ratings ?
Lens
F. SotocaM7.7
F. ThauvinM7.1
J. TodiboD6.5
Marseille
A. GouiriF7.9
J. de LangeG7.8
K. AbdallahF7.7
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Lens edge defence, Marseille edge recent form, attack and head-to-head, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Marseille slightly stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Marseille slightly stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Lens slightly stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Marseille slightly stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Marseille have secured three wins from their last five away fixtures, while Lens have also recorded three victories in their last five home outings. Lens have scored in three of their last five matches at home but have failed to keep a clean sheet during that same period. Marseille hold a slight advantage in form and attack and head-to-head, while Lens hold a slight advantage in defence. Marseille won the most recent meeting 3-1 on 24 January 2026, having won 3 of the last 5 encounters to Lens's 2, with 0 ending level; the fixture has averaged 3.0 goals per meeting. Over the 13-day comparison window, Lens's implied win probability has fallen by 4.2 percentage points, while Marseille's implied win probability has risen by 3.7 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
4
Marseille losing run
3/5
One-goal H2H results
57%
Marseille yellow cards after 75'
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Strong shift away from Lens
Lens's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Lens win as less likely than it did 13 days ago.
Movement strength: Strong
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Lens win
Latest market chance 41.8%
Strong drift
Market chance decreased
46.0% → 41.8%
−4.2 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 24.7%
Steady
Market view unchanged
24.2% → 24.7%
+0.5 pts
Marseille win
Latest market chance 33.5%
Strong shortening
Market chance increased
29.8% → 33.5%
+3.7 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Lens
Draw
Marseille
7 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 13 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
LensMarseille
Season Profile
This season
9th
League Position
6th
9
Games Played
9
1.44
Points/Game
1.67
1.78
Goals/Game
2.22
1.44
Conceded/Game
1.44
12.9
Shots/Game
13.2
5.4
Shots on Target
4.7
Home vs Away Context
Lens at home (5 matches) vs Marseille away (5 matches)
1.80
Points/Game
1.80
2.00
Goals/Game
1.80
1.40
Conceded/Game
1.20
60%
Win Rate
60%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Lens
Home form
L
W
L
W
W
Won 3 of last 5 at home
1 of these match from last season.
1.8
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Marseille
Away form
W
L
L
W
W
Won 3 of last 5 away
1 of these match from last season.
1.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Lens Wins
2
Draws
0
Marseille Wins
3
Avg Goals
3.0
Marseille3 – 1Lens
Lens2 – 1Marseille
Marseille0 – 1Lens
Lens1 – 3Marseille
Marseille2 – 1Lens
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Lensvs
Marseille
Recent Scoring Profile
1.60
Goals scored / game
2.20
1.40
Goals conceded / game
1.60
7/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
5/10
7/10
Both Teams Scored
5/10
3/10
Failed to Score
2/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 65.2%→Latest 64.1%−1.1 pts
Slight move away from 3+ goals
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 66.3%→Latest 65.5%−0.8 pts
Slight move away from both teams scoring
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?