Lens vs Lyon Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Stade Bollaert-Delelis
Fri 09 Oct 2026 · 19:45 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
2.60
Draw
3.67
Away Win
2.70
Match Report
Full Time
2 – 1
Match Events ?
Lens
Lyon
23'
🟨 Abner Vinicius
Florian Sotoca (Florian Thauvin) ⚽
36'
Jonathan Gradit 🟨
50'
Matthieu Udol (Florian Thauvin) ⚽
76'
Matthieu Udol 🟥
84'
85'
⚽ Khalis Merah
Match Statistics ?
48%
Ball Possession
52%
15
Total Shots
13
7
Shots on Goal
5
7
Corner Kicks
4
13
Fouls
12
1
Yellow Cards
1
1
Red Cards
0
1
Offsides
1
4
Goalkeeper Saves
5
Starting Lineups
Lens (3-4-2-1)
R. Risser
J. Gradit
I. Ganiou
K. Antonio
R. Aguilar
M. Cuisance
Y. Titraoui
M. Udol
F. Thauvin
F. Sotoca
O. Édouard
Lyon (4-2-3-1)
D. Greif
Z. Athekame
F. Bacher
R. Kluivert
Abner
M. Bidstrup
T. Morton
E. Nuamah
P. Šulc
C. Tolisso
L. Openda
Player Ratings ?
Lens
F. ThauvinM8.6
F. SotocaM8.2
R. RisserG7.4
Lyon
D. GreifG7.4
K. MerahM6.9
Z. AthekameD6.9
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Lens edge attack and head-to-head, Lyon edge recent form and defence, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Lyon stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Lens slightly stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Lyon slightly stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Lens stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Lens have secured three victories from their last five home outings, while Lyon have managed just two wins in their corresponding away sample. Lens have found the net in three of their last five matches at home, yet they have kept only a single clean sheet during that same period. Five players are unavailable for Lens, whereas Lyon face four absences ahead of the Ligue 1 fixture. Lyon rate stronger on form, with a slight advantage in defence, while Lens rate stronger on head-to-head, with a slight advantage in attack. Lens won the most recent meeting 4-0 on 17 May 2026, having won 3 of the last 5 encounters to Lyon's 1, with 1 ending level; the fixture has averaged 2.2 goals per meeting. Over the 21-day comparison window, Lens's implied win probability has fallen by 7.9 percentage points, while Lyon's implied win probability has risen by 7.1 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Strong shift away from Lens
Lens's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Lens win as less likely than it did 14 days ago.
Movement strength: Strong
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Lens win
Latest market chance 36.9%
Strong drift
Market chance decreased
43.1% → 36.9%
−6.2 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 26.4%
Steady
Market view unchanged
26.0% → 26.4%
+0.4 pts
Lyon win
Latest market chance 36.7%
Strong shortening
Market chance increased
30.9% → 36.7%
+5.8 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Lens
Draw
Lyon
7 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 14 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
LensLyon
Season Profile
This season
15th
League Position
2nd
5
Games Played
5
0.80
Points/Game
2.20
1.80
Goals/Game
2.00
1.80
Conceded/Game
0.40
12.9
Shots/Game
12.9
5.4
Shots on Target
4.6
Home vs Away Context
Lens at home (5 matches) vs Lyon away (6 matches)
1.80
Points/Game
0.67
2.00
Goals/Game
0.50
1.40
Conceded/Game
1.33
60%
Win Rate
17%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Lens
Home form
W
W
L
W
L
Won 3 of last 5 at home
3 of these matches from last season.
1.8
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Lyon
Away form
D
W
L
W
D
2W 2D 1L in last 5 away
3 of these matches from last season.
1.0
Goals scored
per match
per match
0.6
Goals conceded
per match
per match
3/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
3/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Lens Wins
3
Draws
1
Lyon Wins
1
Avg Goals
2.2
Lyon0 – 4Lens
Lens0 – 1Lyon
Lyon1 – 2Lens
Lens0 – 0Lyon
Lyon0 – 3Lens
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Lensvs
Lyon
Recent Scoring Profile
1.80
Goals scored / game
2.00
1.50
Goals conceded / game
1.30
6/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
7/10
6/10
Both Teams Scored
6/10
2/10
Failed to Score
2/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 60.0%→Latest 62.0%+2.0 pts
Notable move towards 3+ goals
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 62.5%→Latest 64.9%+2.4 pts
Notable move towards both teams scoring
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.
5 of Lens's 10 matches and 5 of Lyon's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?