Le Mans vs Toulouse Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
MMArena
Fri 16 Oct 2026 · 19:45 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
3.01
Draw
3.57
Away Win
2.37
Match Report
Full Time
0 – 3
Match Events ?
Le Mans
Toulouse
46'
⚽ Jacen Russell-Rowe (Aron Dønnum)
49'
🟨 Jacen Russell-Rowe
59'
⚽ Aron Dønnum
87'
⚽ Casper Tengstedt (Cristian Casseres)
Samuel Yohou 🟨
90'
Djibril Sidibé 🟨
90+4'
Match Statistics ?
53%
Ball Possession
47%
11
Total Shots
13
1
Shots on Goal
5
2
Corner Kicks
2
15
Fouls
9
2
Yellow Cards
1
0
Red Cards
0
0
Offsides
3
2
Goalkeeper Saves
1
Starting Lineups
Le Mans (3-1-4-2)
N. Kocik
D. Sidibé
S. Yohou
H. Voyer
L. Bretelle
L. Buadés
D. Traoré
J. Vercruysse
Y. Larouci
D. Guèye
L. Mafouta
Toulouse (4-2-3-1)
G. Restes
R. Messali
M. McKenzie
R. Nicolaisen
C. Tapé
C. Cásseres
N. Sigur
A. Dønnum
C. Tengstedt
T. Jørgensen
J. Russell-Rowe
Player Ratings ?
Le Mans
J. VercruysseM6.7
L. BretelleM6.6
D. TraoréM6.5
Toulouse
A. DønnumM8.9
C. TengstedtM8.0
J. Russell-RoweF7.7
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
Data favours
Toulouse
Toulouse rate stronger in recent form, defence and head-to-head; attack is closely matched, giving Toulouse a slight edge.
Leads 3 of 4 major categories
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Toulouse stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Closely matched
HomeAway
Defence
Toulouse slightly stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Toulouse stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Toulouse arrive with an impressive unbeaten run in their last five outings away from home, securing just a solitary victory alongside four draws, while hosts Le Mans have been more mixed domestically with two wins and two draws from their last five matches at this venue. Le Mans have scored in all five of their recent home fixtures, though they have managed just one clean sheet during that same period. There are three players unavailable for Le Mans and one absent from the Toulouse squad ahead of this Ligue 1 fixture. Toulouse rate stronger on form and head-to-head, with a slight advantage in defence, while attack is closely matched. This is the first time these two sides have met in the league since 2010. Over the 13-day comparison window, Le Mans's implied win probability has risen by 1.2 percentage points, while Toulouse's implied win probability has fallen by 0.8 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison gives Toulouse a slight edge.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Slight shift towards Le Mans
Le Mans's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Le Mans win as more likely than it did 13 days ago. This is a modest move, not a major change in market opinion. Toulouse remain the clear market favourite.
Movement strength: Slight
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Le Mans win
Latest market chance 31.8%
Slight shortening
Market chance increased
30.5% → 31.8%
+1.3 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 27.2%
Steady
Market view unchanged
27.5% → 27.2%
−0.3 pts
Toulouse win
Latest market chance 41.0%
Slight drift
Market chance decreased
42.0% → 41.0%
−1.0 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Le Mans
Draw
Toulouse
7 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 13 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
Le MansToulouse
Season Profile
This season
14th
League Position
15th
6
Games Played
6
1.00
Points/Game
1.00
1.67
Goals/Game
1.50
2.00
Conceded/Game
1.83
10.7
Shots/Game
12.6
3.6
Shots on Target
4.7
Home vs Away Context
Le Mans at home (5 matches) vs Toulouse away (6 matches)
1.20
Points/Game
1.00
1.40
Goals/Game
1.50
1.80
Conceded/Game
1.67
20%
Win Rate
17%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Le Mans
Home form
L
W
D
D
W
2W 2D 1L in last 5 at home
2 of these matches from last season.
1.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Toulouse
Away form
W
D
D
D
D
Unbeaten in last 5 away
2 of these matches from last season.
1.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Le Mans Wins
0
Draws
1
Toulouse Wins
4
Avg Goals
2.6
Le Mans1 – 3Toulouse
Toulouse2 – 0Le Mans
Toulouse2 – 0Le Mans
Le Mans1 – 2Toulouse
Toulouse1 – 1Le Mans
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Le Mansvs
Toulouse
Recent Scoring Profile
1.40
Goals scored / game
1.50
1.80
Goals conceded / game
1.50
6/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
7/10
8/10
Both Teams Scored
7/10
1/10
Failed to Score
3/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 53.6%→Latest 55.9%+2.3 pts
Notable move towards 3+ goals
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 57.9%→Latest 59.6%+1.7 pts
Notable move towards both teams scoring
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
The market is more cautious on both teams scoring than both teams' recent records.
4 of Le Mans's 10 matches and 4 of Toulouse's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?