Le Havre vs Paris SG Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis

Archived Result — stats and prediction shown as they stood before kickoff
Stade Océane
Fri 30 Oct 2026 · 18:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
9.02
Draw
6.47
Away Win
1.28
Match Report
Full Time
1 – 5
Match Events ?
Le Havre
Paris SG
Josh Maja (Rayan Fofana) ⚽
18'
26'
⚽ Mika Godts (Achraf Hakimi)
28'
⚽ Achraf Hakimi (Senny Mayulu)
55'
⚽ Achraf Hakimi
62'
⚽ Senny Mayulu (Achraf Hakimi)
69'
⚽ Achraf Hakimi
Match Statistics ?
29%
Ball Possession
71%
14
Total Shots
15
5
Shots on Goal
10
5
Corner Kicks
3
14
Fouls
11
0
Yellow Cards
0
0
Red Cards
0
3
Offsides
1
5
Goalkeeper Saves
4
Starting Lineups
Le Havre (3-4-2-1)
A. Bodart
A. Seko
J. Mwanga
A. Touba
D. Ouziad
S. Ebonog
A. Richardson
Lamine N'Diaye
R. Fofana
S. Nakamura
J. Maja
Paris SG (4-3-3)
M. Safonov
A. Hakimi
I. Zabarnyi
L. Hernández
L. Digne
W. Zaïre-Emery
M. Akliouche
Pedro Fernández
Ferran Torres
Senny Mayulu
M. Godts
Player Ratings ?
Le Havre
J. MajaF7.9
D. OuziadM7.2
M. SamattaF6.7
Paris SG
A. HakimiD8.8
Senny MayuluF8.3
M. GodtsF8.2
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
Data favours
Paris SG
Paris SG rate stronger across every major category. They lead recent form, attack, defence and head-to-head, giving Paris SG a strong edge.
Leads 4 of 4 major categories
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Paris SG stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Paris SG stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Paris SG slightly stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Paris SG stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Paris SG arrive at this away fixture with an encouraging record of three wins and two draws from their last five outings, while Le Havre find themselves winless in four of their home defeats over the same span. At home, Le Havre have scored in just two of their last five matches and managed only a single clean sheet during that period. Le Havre face significant concerns with five players unavailable and one doubtful, whereas Paris SG have no doubts despite five selections being out. Paris SG rate stronger on form, attack and head-to-head, with a slight advantage in defence. Paris SG won the most recent meeting 1-0 on 28 February 2026, having won 4 of the last 5 encounters to Le Havre's 0, with 1 ending level; the fixture has averaged 3.6 goals per meeting. Over the 10-day comparison window, Le Havre's implied win probability has fallen by 0.7 percentage points, while Paris SG's implied win probability has risen by 1.2 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison gives Paris SG a strong edge.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
50%
Le Havre yellow cards after 75'
1
Le Havre points from last 5 matches
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Market View
?
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Strong shift away from Paris SG
Paris SG's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Paris SG win as less likely than it did 10 days ago.
Movement strength: Strong
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Le Havre win
Latest market chance 11.6%
Notable shortening
Market chance increased
9.7% → 11.6%
+1.9 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 16.1%
Notable shortening
Market chance increased
14.1% → 16.1%
+2.0 pts
Paris SG win
Latest market chance 72.3%
Strong drift
Market chance decreased
76.2% → 72.3%
−3.9 pts
Movement over time
Change vs first comparable snapshot
11 snapshots
+4+20−2Oct 20Oct 22Oct 25Oct 28Oct 30
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Le Havre
Draw
Paris SG
4 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 10 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
Le Havre
Paris SG
Season Profile
This season
18th
League Position
1st
8
Games Played
8
0.25
Points/Game
2.13
1.00
Goals/Game
2.00
1.88
Conceded/Game
1.12
16.7
Shots/Game
19.3
5.0
Shots on Target
7.8
Home vs Away Context
Le Havre at home (6 matches) vs Paris SG away (6 matches)
0.17
Points/Game
2.33
0.50
Goals/Game
2.50
2.17
Conceded/Game
1.17
0%
Win Rate
67%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Le Havre
Home form
L
L
L
D
L
Winless in last 5 at home
1 of these match from last season.
0.4
Goals scored
per match
1.4
Goals conceded
per match
2/5
Scored in
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
VS
Paris SG
Away form
D
D
W
W
W
Won 3 straight away
2.0
Goals scored
per match
1.2
Goals conceded
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Le Havre Wins
0
Draws
1
Paris SG Wins
4
Avg Goals
3.6
2026-02-282025-2026
Le Havre0 – 1Paris SG
2025-11-222025-2026
Paris SG3 – 0Le Havre
2025-04-192024-2025
Paris SG2 – 1Le Havre
2024-08-162024-2025
Le Havre1 – 4Paris SG
2024-04-272023-2024
Paris SG3 – 3Le Havre
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Le Havre
vs
Paris SG
Recent Scoring Profile
1.30
Goals scored / game
1.90
1.90
Goals conceded / game
1.10
5/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
7/10
6/10
Both Teams Scored
7/10
3/10
Failed to Score
0/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
85.5%
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
68.8%
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
48.6%
BTTSBoth teams score
56.6%
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 70.7%→Latest 68.8%−1.9 pts
Notable move away from 3+ goals
An earlier move in the opposite direction has partly reversed.
Oct 20Oct 22Oct 25Oct 28Oct 30
3 common bookmakers · first comparable 10 days before kickoff
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 56.1%→Latest 56.3%+0.2 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
3 common bookmakers · first comparable 10 days before kickoff
Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.
1 of Le Havre's 10 matches and 1 of Paris SG's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
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