Brest vs Lyon Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Stade Francis-Le-Blé
Sun 08 Nov 2026 · 16:15 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
2.82
Draw
3.52
Away Win
2.55
Match Report
Full Time
2 – 0
Match Events ?
Brest
Lyon
Noah Edjouma (Kamory Doumbia) ⚽
22'
55'
🟨 Corentin Tolisso
63'
🟨 Kail Boudache
Ludovic Ajorque 🟨
90'
Ludovic Ajorque ⚽ (P)
90+4'
Match Statistics ?
31%
Ball Possession
69%
13
Total Shots
10
6
Shots on Goal
2
1
Corner Kicks
8
14
Fouls
10
1
Yellow Cards
2
0
Red Cards
0
2
Offsides
2
2
Goalkeeper Saves
4
Starting Lineups
Brest (4-2-3-1)
E. Selvik
K. Lala
L. Tousart
G. Lloris
B. Locko
J. Chotard
H. Magnetti
N. Edjouma
K. Doumbia
Mama Baldé
L. Ajorque
Lyon (4-3-3)
D. Greif
Z. Athekame
R. Kluivert
M. Niakhaté
N. Tagliafico
N. Nartey
T. Tessmann
C. Tolisso
K. Boudache
K. Merah
Keito Nakamura
Player Ratings ?
Brest
N. EdjoumaM7.9
L. AjorqueF7.5
K. DoumbiaM7.5
Lyon
T. TessmannM7.0
D. GreifG6.9
C. TolissoM6.8
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Brest edge attack and defence, Lyon edge recent form and head-to-head, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Lyon stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Brest stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Brest slightly stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Lyon stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Lyon have recorded just one victory and a single draw from their last five away fixtures, while Brest have managed only one win across their most recent five home outings spanning multiple seasons. Brest have scored in four of their last five matches at home but have failed to keep a clean sheet during that same period. Lyon rate stronger on form and head-to-head, while Brest rate stronger on attack, with a slight advantage in defence. Lyon won the most recent meeting 2-1 on 18 January 2026, having won 3 of the last 5 encounters to Brest's 1, with 1 ending level; the fixture has averaged 3.2 goals per meeting. Over the 13-day comparison window, Brest's implied win probability has risen by 1.9 percentage points, while Lyon's implied win probability has fallen by 3.7 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Strong shift away from Lyon
Lyon's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Lyon win as less likely than it did 13 days ago.
Movement strength: Strong
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Brest win
Latest market chance 34.3%
Notable shortening
Market chance increased
32.4% → 34.3%
+1.9 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 27.6%
Notable shortening
Market chance increased
25.9% → 27.6%
+1.7 pts
Lyon win
Latest market chance 38.0%
Strong drift
Market chance decreased
41.7% → 38.0%
−3.7 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Brest
Draw
Lyon
7 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 13 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
BrestLyon
Season Profile
This season
11th
League Position
4th
9
Games Played
9
1.33
Points/Game
1.89
1.78
Goals/Game
1.67
1.33
Conceded/Game
0.78
16.0
Shots/Game
12.9
5.7
Shots on Target
4.6
Home vs Away Context
Brest at home (5 matches) vs Lyon away (6 matches)
1.40
Points/Game
0.67
2.00
Goals/Game
0.50
1.20
Conceded/Game
1.33
40%
Win Rate
17%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Brest
Home form
D
D
L
W
L
1W 2D 2L in last 5 at home
1 of these match from last season.
1.8
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Lyon
Away form
W
D
L
L
L
Lost 3 straight away
0.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.2
Goals conceded
per match
per match
2/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Brest Wins
1
Draws
1
Lyon Wins
3
Avg Goals
3.2
Lyon2 – 1Brest
Brest0 – 0Lyon
Lyon2 – 1Brest
Brest2 – 1Lyon
Lyon4 – 3Brest
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Brestvs
Lyon
Recent Scoring Profile
1.80
Goals scored / game
1.50
1.20
Goals conceded / game
0.90
6/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
4/10
7/10
Both Teams Scored
4/10
1/10
Failed to Score
3/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 8 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 55.9%→Latest 50.0%−5.9 pts
Strong move away from 3+ goals
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 59.9%→Latest 55.4%−4.5 pts
Strong move away from both teams scoring
Most of this movement happened in the most recent snapshot, not spread evenly.
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?