Auxerre vs Le Mans Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
Stade de l'Abbé-Deschamps
Sun 25 Oct 2026 · 16:15 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
2.07
Draw
3.72
Away Win
3.54
Match Report
Full Time
1 – 1
Match Events ?
Auxerre
Le Mans
21'
🟨 Alexandre Lauray
26'
🟨 Lucas Buades
William Still 🟨
44'
48'
⚽ Lucas Buades (Lucas Bretelle)
Cameron Archer ⚽
56'
Kevin Danois 🟨
69'
Match Statistics ?
60%
Ball Possession
40%
13
Total Shots
11
5
Shots on Goal
2
7
Corner Kicks
1
15
Fouls
12
1
Yellow Cards
2
0
Red Cards
0
0
Offsides
3
1
Goalkeeper Saves
5
Starting Lineups
Auxerre (3-4-2-1)
P. Nardi
C. Makosso
A. Tuanzebe
C. Akpa
L. Sy
N. Ahamada
K. Danois
F. Oppegård
R. Faivre
D. Namaso
C. Archer
Le Mans (3-5-2)
N. Kocik
D. Sidibé
S. Yohou
Raúl Torrente
L. Buadés
A. Rabillard
L. Bretelle
A. Lauray
L. Calodat
L. Mafouta
H. Diallo
Player Ratings ?
Auxerre
C. ArcherF7.8
A. TuanzebeD6.8
N. AhamadaM6.7
Le Mans
L. BretelleM7.7
L. BuadésM7.3
J. VercruysseM7.0
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
Data favours
Auxerre
Auxerre rate stronger across every major category. They lead recent form, attack, defence and head-to-head, giving Auxerre a slight edge.
Leads 4 of 4 major categories
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Auxerre stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Auxerre stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Auxerre slightly stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Auxerre stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Auxerre have secured four victories in their last five home outings, while Le Mans remain winless with just a solitary draw from their corresponding away sample. The hosts have scored in all five of their recent home matches but have managed only one clean sheet during that same period. Both squads carry notable injury concerns, with Auxerre listing six players out and Le Mans carrying four unavailable options ahead of the fixture. Auxerre rate stronger on form, attack and head-to-head, with a slight advantage in defence. This is the first time these two sides have met in the league since 2020. Over the 13-day comparison window, Auxerre's implied win probability has risen by 1.4 percentage points, while Le Mans's implied win probability has fallen by 1.1 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison gives Auxerre a slight edge.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
3
Auxerre losing run
1
Le Mans points from last 5 matches
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Slight shift towards Auxerre
Auxerre's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Auxerre win as more likely than it did 13 days ago. This is a modest move, not a major change in market opinion.
Movement strength: Slight
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Auxerre win
Latest market chance 45.2%
Slight shortening
Market chance increased
43.8% → 45.2%
+1.4 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 26.7%
Steady
Market view unchanged
26.9% → 26.7%
−0.2 pts
Le Mans win
Latest market chance 28.1%
Slight drift
Market chance decreased
29.2% → 28.1%
−1.1 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Auxerre
Draw
Le Mans
7 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 13 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
AuxerreLe Mans
Season Profile
This season
13th
League Position
16th
7
Games Played
7
1.29
Points/Game
0.86
1.57
Goals/Game
1.43
2.43
Conceded/Game
2.14
11.1
Shots/Game
10.7
4.5
Shots on Target
3.6
Home vs Away Context
Auxerre at home (5 matches) vs Le Mans away (5 matches)
1.40
Points/Game
0.40
1.00
Goals/Game
1.00
1.20
Conceded/Game
2.00
40%
Win Rate
0%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Auxerre
Home form
W
W
L
W
W
Won 4 of last 5 at home
2 of these matches from last season.
1.8
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.2
Goals conceded
per match
per match
5/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Le Mans
Away form
L
L
L
D
L
Winless in last 5 away
2 of these matches from last season.
1.2
Goals scored
per match
per match
2.4
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Auxerre Wins
3
Draws
1
Le Mans Wins
1
Avg Goals
2.4
Le Mans0 – 1Auxerre
Auxerre2 – 0Le Mans
Auxerre1 – 1Le Mans
Le Mans3 – 1Auxerre
Auxerre2 – 1Le Mans
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Auxerrevs
Le Mans
Recent Scoring Profile
1.80
Goals scored / game
1.30
1.90
Goals conceded / game
2.00
8/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
7/10
8/10
Both Teams Scored
7/10
0/10
Failed to Score
2/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 7 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 54.1%→Latest 55.7%+1.6 pts
Notable move towards 3+ goals
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
The market is more cautious on 3+ goals than both teams' recent records.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 57.9%→Latest 58.7%+0.8 pts
Slight move towards both teams scoring
This has been a steady, gradual move, not a single jump.
The market is more cautious on both teams scoring than both teams' recent records.
3 of Auxerre's 10 matches and 3 of Le Mans's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?