Swindon vs Walsall Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
County Ground
Sat 17 Oct 2026 · 15:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
2.77
Draw
3.62
Away Win
2.40
Match Report
Full Time
1 – 1
Match Events ?
Swindon
Walsall
Aaron Drinan (Stephan Negru) ⚽
5'
55'
⚽ Taione Richard Evumena Sodje
59'
🟨 L. Grant
James Ball 🟨
77'
Match Statistics ?
38%
Ball Possession
62%
17
Total Shots
18
5
Shots on Goal
8
2
Corner Kicks
10
5
Fouls
9
1
Yellow Cards
0
0
Red Cards
0
1
Offsides
4
7
Goalkeeper Saves
4
Starting Lineups
Swindon (3-4-2-1)
C. Ripley
J. Ball
S. Negru
O. Clarke
M. Clark
A. Munda
J. Thomson
B. Kirkman
A. Hackford
J. Hungbo
A. Drinan
Walsall (4-2-3-1)
J. Ward
D. Skura
J. Connolly
R. Leak
M. Hancock
S. Sprangler
Isaac Moore
Courtney Clarke
Taione Richard Evumena Sodje
R. Smith
A. Pressley
Player Ratings ?
Swindon
A. DrinanF7.9
C. RipleyG7.5
S. NegruD6.9
Walsall
Taione Richard Evumena SodjeM7.8
M. HancockD7.2
A. PressleyF7.0
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Swindon edge head-to-head, Walsall edge recent form, attack and defence, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Walsall stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Walsall slightly stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Walsall slightly stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Swindon slightly stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Walsall have secured one win from their last five away outings without a defeat, while Swindon have recorded three victories in their home fixtures over the same span. Swindon have found the net in four of their last five home matches but have failed to keep a clean sheet across that identical run. Walsall rate stronger on form, with a slight advantage in attack and defence, while Swindon hold a slight advantage in head-to-head. Swindon won the most recent meeting 2-1 on 6 April 2026, having won 2 of the last 5 encounters to Walsall's 3, with 0 ending level; the fixture has averaged 2.8 goals per meeting. The market has remained broadly steady over the 6-day comparison window, with little change in either side's implied win probability. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Slight shift away from Swindon
Swindon's odds have drifted, meaning the market now rates a Swindon win as less likely than it did 6 days ago. This is a modest move, not a major change in market opinion. Walsall remain the clear market favourite.
Movement strength: Slight
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Swindon win
Latest market chance 34.4%
Slight drift
Market chance decreased
35.4% → 34.4%
−1.0 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 26.5%
Steady
Market view unchanged
25.9% → 26.5%
+0.6 pts
Walsall win
Latest market chance 39.2%
Steady
Market view unchanged
38.7% → 39.2%
+0.5 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Swindon
Draw
Walsall
5 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 6 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
SwindonWalsall
Season Profile
This season
17th
League Position
6th
10
Games Played
9
1.10
Points/Game
1.67
0.90
Goals/Game
1.33
1.40
Conceded/Game
0.67
10.4
Shots/Game
14.8
3.3
Shots on Target
4.6
Home vs Away Context
Swindon at home (7 matches) vs Walsall away (7 matches)
2.00
Points/Game
1.57
1.71
Goals/Game
1.57
1.00
Conceded/Game
0.86
57%
Win Rate
29%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Swindon
Home form
W
W
W
D
L
Won 3 of last 5 at home
1.8
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Walsall
Away form
W
D
D
D
D
Unbeaten in last 5 away
1.4
Goals scored
per match
per match
0.8
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
2/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Swindon Wins
2
Draws
0
Walsall Wins
3
Avg Goals
2.8
Swindon2 – 1Walsall
Walsall2 – 1Swindon
Walsall0 – 1Swindon
Swindon0 – 4Walsall
Walsall2 – 1Swindon
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Swindonvs
Walsall
Recent Scoring Profile
0.90
Goals scored / game
1.30
1.40
Goals conceded / game
0.90
5/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
4/10
4/10
Both Teams Scored
5/10
6/10
Failed to Score
3/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 5 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 57.7%→Latest 56.2%−1.5 pts
Notable move away from 3+ goals
The market is pricing a higher chance of 3+ goals than either team's recent rate.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 59.7%→Latest 59.9%+0.2 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
The market is pricing a higher chance of both teams scoring than either team's recent rate.
1 of Walsall's 10 matches are from last season.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?