Swindon vs Rotherham Head to Head, Prediction & Match Analysis
County Ground
Sat 31 Oct 2026 · 15:00 UK
Odds at Kickoff
Home Win
2.34
Draw
3.56
Away Win
2.91
Match Report
Full Time
2 – 1
Match Events ?
Swindon
Rotherham
4'
🟥 Jili Buyabu
Jack Thomson (Dan Butler) ⚽
45+3'
72'
🟨 Kieran Ngwenya
79'
🟥 Dominic Iorfa
80'
🟥 A. Bruce
Joseph Hungbo ⚽
81'
87'
⚽ Denzel Hall
90+5'
🟨 Denzel Hall
Match Statistics ?
74%
Ball Possession
26%
15
Total Shots
3
4
Shots on Goal
2
7
Corner Kicks
0
10
Fouls
10
0
Yellow Cards
2
0
Red Cards
2
2
Offsides
0
1
Goalkeeper Saves
2
Starting Lineups
Swindon (3-4-2-1)
C. Ripley
J. Ball
S. Negru
B. Kirkman
M. Clark
J. Thomson
M. Virtue-Thick
D. Butler
T. Nichols
J. Snowdon
A. Drinan
Rotherham (4-3-3)
J. Eyestone
J. Rafferty
D. Hall
D. Iorfa
K. Ngwenya
Brandon Ashley Cover
Jayce Fitzgerald
J. Austerfield
A. Nemane
P. Mullin
J. Buyabu
Player Ratings ?
Swindon
J. ThomsonM8.2
J. HungboF7.2
T. NicholsM7.1
Rotherham
D. HallD6.6
Sonny AljofreeD6.5
K. LolasNone6.4
Before Kickoff
Match Prediction
No clear statistical edge
The matchup is mixed. Swindon edge recent form, attack, defence and head-to-head, so the data does not point to one clear overall winner.
Statistical Edge
No clearSlightEdgeStrongV.strong
How They Compare
Recent Form
Swindon stronger
HomeAway
Attack
Swindon slightly stronger
HomeAway
Defence
Swindon slightly stronger
HomeAway
Head-to-Head
Swindon stronger
HomeAway
Match Analysis
Rotherham have found just one win and a draw in their last five away outings, whereas Swindon have secured two victories from two draws at home over the same span. Swindon have scored in four of their last five home matches but have failed to keep a clean sheet during that identical period. Swindon rate stronger on form and head-to-head, with a slight advantage in attack and defence. This is the first time these two sides have met in the league since 2014. Over the 5-day comparison window, Swindon's implied win probability has risen by 1.6 percentage points, while Rotherham's implied win probability has fallen by 1.6 percentage points. The overall statistical comparison shows no clear edge between the sides.
Pre-Match Context
Notable Numbers
3
Rotherham losing run
4/5
One-goal H2H results
50%
Swindon yellow cards after 75'
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Market View
How the betting market has changed its view of this match
Market direction
Notable shift towards Swindon
Swindon's odds have shortened, meaning the market now rates a Swindon win as more likely than it did 5 days ago.
Movement strength: Notable
Match odds movement
Consensus market-implied chance, first comparable snapshot → latest
Swindon win
Latest market chance 40.4%
Notable shortening
Market chance increased
38.8% → 40.4%
+1.6 pts
Draw
Latest market chance 26.7%
Steady
Market view unchanged
26.6% → 26.7%
+0.1 pts
Rotherham win
Latest market chance 32.9%
Notable drift
Market chance decreased
34.5% → 32.9%
−1.6 pts
Percentage-point change in market-implied chance. Positive = market moved towards the outcome.
Swindon
Draw
Rotherham
10 common bookmakers compared at each snapshot · First comparable snapshot 5 days before kickoff
Odds shortening means the market is pricing an outcome as more likely than before; drifting means less likely. It does not tell us why the market moved or whether the new price represents value.
Team Comparison
SwindonRotherham
Season Profile
This season
15th
League Position
22nd
13
Games Played
13
1.23
Points/Game
0.92
1.00
Goals/Game
1.31
1.23
Conceded/Game
1.77
10.4
Shots/Game
11.2
3.3
Shots on Target
3.6
Home vs Away Context
Swindon at home (7 matches) vs Rotherham away (7 matches)
2.00
Points/Game
0.57
1.71
Goals/Game
0.71
1.00
Conceded/Game
1.43
57%
Win Rate
14%
Recent Form
Last 5 home / away matches
Swindon
Home form
W
W
D
L
D
2W 2D 1L in last 5 at home
1.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.0
Goals conceded
per match
per match
4/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
0/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
VS
Rotherham
Away form
D
L
W
L
L
Lost 3 of last 5 away
0.6
Goals scored
per match
per match
1.2
Goals conceded
per match
per match
2/5
Scored in
last 5
last 5
1/5
Clean
sheets
sheets
Head-to-Head History
Last 5 meetings
Swindon Wins
3
Draws
0
Rotherham Wins
2
Avg Goals
4.0
Swindon1 – 2Rotherham
Rotherham0 – 4Swindon
Rotherham1 – 2Swindon
Swindon3 – 2Rotherham
Swindon2 – 3Rotherham
Goals & Scoring Trends
Last 10 matches, any venue
Swindonvs
Rotherham
Recent Scoring Profile
1.10
Goals scored / game
1.30
1.20
Goals conceded / game
1.90
4/10
3+ goals in match(Over 2.5)
5/10
5/10
Both Teams Scored
6/10
5/10
Failed to Score
3/10
Market Goal Expectation
2+2+ goals(Over 1.5)
3+3+ goals(Over 2.5)
4+4+ goals(Over 3.5)
BTTSBoth teams score
Market-implied probabilities after removing bookmaker margin. Consensus across up to 7 bookmakers.
3+ Goals (Over 2.5)
First comparable 55.5%→Latest 54.5%−1.0 pts
Slight move away from 3+ goals
Current market expectation is broadly in line with both teams' recent rates.
Both Teams To Score
First comparable 58.9%→Latest 59.1%+0.2 pts
Steady — little change since the first comparable snapshot
Current market expectation sits between the two teams' recent rates.
Match Poll
Who do you think wins?